Chinese Economics Thread

[Michaelsinodef]

It seems wages in 1st and 2nd tier Chinese cities are already at ~2/3 of the EU average in nominal. That means 300 million are living at first world standards.

View attachment 109669

Holy, nearly tripling in just 1 decade.

While there's inflation, it really is nowhere near as much as that increase in wages lol.

 

[BoraTas]

Holy, nearly tripling in just 1 decade.

While there's inflation, it really is nowhere near as much as that increase in wages lol.

I also think it doesn't include people who are registered to other provinces but still. Nevertheless, the tripling of wages in USD nominal terms is phenomenal.

 

[tphuang]

this is really significant

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Hong Kong banks appear to have benefited from recent incidents at Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse Group, with funds flowing back to the city from Western countries, National Business Daily reported today.

Concerns spread around the Western banking system after SVB went bankrupt and troubled Credit Suisse was bought by Swiss bank UBS in an emergency rescue deal. Though the banking system appears less vulnerable than in 2008, the events have spooked investors.

Recent rumors have said that over USD76 billion in funds owned by Chinese people have been withdrawn from the US and USD165 billion has been taken out of Switzerland, flowing mainly to Singapore and Hong Kong.

The opening of accounts in Hong Kong banks and funds flowing into the city have recovered to “the peak period,” a member of staff at a Chinese mainland bank was quoted as saying in the National Business Daily report.

The positive sentiment swelled amid news that local HSBC branches were set to open for seven days a week, the report said.

The number of visitors to Hong Kong has been rising since the city lifted Covid-19 related restrictions on entry early last month, and there has also been a rise in the number of people using HSBC services. The number of new non-Hong Kong resident clients of HSBC Hong Kong last month recovered to the monthly average seen in the first half of 2019, National Business Daily learned from the bank. Three of HSBC’s branches will experiment with operating for seven days a week to meet the surge in demand, the bank noted.

Insurance sales in Hong Kong have also risen recently, according to industry sources. An insurance agent at Prudential said the company has customers lining up to pay insurance expenses every day.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is expected to clarify shortly whether there has been a sharp rise in the amount of money flowing into banks in the region.

Btw, this is huge news and really can be thanked on two things
1) Russian sanctions by Swiss bank and other Western banks
2) Credit Suisse collapsing.

People in Asia only seem to be understanding now how fragile the Western banking system is. It's a system that is leveraged and heavily indebted that it can only continue to function in a close to 0% interest environment. Raising interest rate to just 5% has caused bank collapses everywhere

See this

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1638709509437943808

This is clearly money taken out of Swiss banks and brought back to East Asia. HK is a major beneficiary here, but so is Singapore.

Take a look at UBS's CDS rates. Not a lot of investor confidence in there right now. Suisse bank's safe haven status has been shattered. And Asian banks are going to be huge beneficiaries of this.

It seems wages in 1st and 2nd tier Chinese cities are already at ~2/3 of the EU average in nominal. That means 300 million are living at first world standards.

View attachment 109669

Right, the large tier 1 and some tier 2 cities have per capita GDP that's close to the per capita GDP of Japan, SK & Taiwan. in terms of standard of living, it's probably better than most of the EU countries, since energy cost and other costs are just so much lower.

 

[siegecrossbow]

this is really significant

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Hong Kong banks appear to have benefited from recent incidents at Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse Group, with funds flowing back to the city from Western countries, National Business Daily reported today.

Concerns spread around the Western banking system after SVB went bankrupt and troubled Credit Suisse was bought by Swiss bank UBS in an emergency rescue deal. Though the banking system appears less vulnerable than in 2008, the events have spooked investors.

Recent rumors have said that over USD76 billion in funds owned by Chinese people have been withdrawn from the US and USD165 billion has been taken out of Switzerland, flowing mainly to Singapore and Hong Kong.

The opening of accounts in Hong Kong banks and funds flowing into the city have recovered to “the peak period,” a member of staff at a Chinese mainland bank was quoted as saying in the National Business Daily report.

The positive sentiment swelled amid news that local HSBC branches were set to open for seven days a week, the report said.

The number of visitors to Hong Kong has been rising since the city lifted Covid-19 related restrictions on entry early last month, and there has also been a rise in the number of people using HSBC services. The number of new non-Hong Kong resident clients of HSBC Hong Kong last month recovered to the monthly average seen in the first half of 2019, National Business Daily learned from the bank. Three of HSBC’s branches will experiment with operating for seven days a week to meet the surge in demand, the bank noted.

Insurance sales in Hong Kong have also risen recently, according to industry sources. An insurance agent at Prudential said the company has customers lining up to pay insurance expenses every day.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is expected to clarify shortly whether there has been a sharp rise in the amount of money flowing into banks in the region.

Turns out you really can't get away with doing stupid things with no repercussions.

It seems wages in 1st and 2nd tier Chinese cities are already at ~2/3 of the EU average in nominal. That means 300 million are living at first world standards.

View attachment 109669

Do keep in mind that median income is probably quite a bit lower. Then again, living costs other than housing is probably lower than most developed countries in 1st tier cities.

 

[gelgoog]

Singapore is not that much better than Switzerland as a safe haven. They are in the pocket of the US as well. As for Hong Kong, there is always the risk it will get sanctioned by the US eventually, there is no good safe haven really. In Russia, they cut VAT from gold purchases, and lots of people have been buying gold. That is another thing the Chinese government could consider doing.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Singapore is not that much better than Switzerland as a safe haven. They are in the pocket of the US as well. As for Hong Kong, there is always the risk it will get sanctioned by the US eventually, there is no good safe haven really. In Russia, they cut VAT from gold purchases, and lots of people have been buying gold. That is another thing the Chinese government could consider doing.

Would they have money to sanction anyone when it reaches that point? All the money would be gone.

 

[gelgoog]

Would they have money to sanction anyone when it reaches that point? All the money would be gone.

If Hong Kong was sanctioned you would basically have dollars, and other foreign currency, in bank accounts which would become worthless because you cannot transfer them or use them anywhere. Holding Western currency right now is not that safe for either Russian or Chinese wealthy people I think. Probably not that safe for Middle Easterners either.

As for the the results to the US, it could lead to further de-dollarization in other countries, and inflation in the US over the long term.

 

[siegecrossbow]

If Hong Kong was sanctioned you would basically have dollars, and other foreign currency, in bank accounts which would become worthless because you cannot transfer them or use them anywhere. Holding Western currency right now is not that safe for either Russian or Chinese wealthy people I think. Probably not that safe for Middle Easterners either.

As for the the results to the US, it could lead to further de-dollarization in other countries, and inflation in the US over the long term.

That’s like drinking poison to quench one’s thirst lol. And we already see the effects of that right now. Surely they can’t be that stupid.

 

[tphuang]

Singapore is not that much better than Switzerland as a safe haven. They are in the pocket of the US as well. As for Hong Kong, there is always the risk it will get sanctioned by the US eventually, there is no good safe haven really. In Russia, they cut VAT from gold purchases, and lots of people have been buying gold. That is another thing the Chinese government could consider doing.

Having spent many trips in Singapore. I cannot see Singaporean gov't ever sanctioning Chinese money. Keep in mind what Singapore elites tell Westerns is a different reality than your average singaporeans.

 

[KYli]

Old generation of Singaporean government officials probably won't sanction Chinese money. However, newer and younger generation of Singaporean officials could well be persuaded with enough threats and incentives. Russian billionaires were told not to anchor their ships at Singapore and were forced to anchor their ships at Hong Kong for a few months before finding a new destination that is safe for them to anchor.

As for sanctioning Hong Kong, that would be very risky move. Hong Kong is very powerful and influential financial center that is very important to many major banks including those in Wall Street and London. Forcing Hong Kong to comply with some US sanctions is possible but Hong Kong is unlikely to do the US bidding especially with China's watching closely. Sanctioning Hong Kong could also disrupt world trades and financial system. It could spend the doom of Dollar's hegemony.