Chinese Economics Thread

Jiang ZeminFanboy

Senior Member
Registered Member
Chinese cities by car sales in 2022, we can see the strength of Chinese cities on their economic ground.

* disclaimer - some Chinese cities have more extensive restrictions on car purchases. Also, some are denser with better public transport, some are less dense, and others have worse public transport. Overall I believe it's an interesting perspective.

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siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Chinese cities by car sales in 2022, we can see the strength of Chinese cities on their economic ground.

* disclaimer - some Chinese cities have more extensive restrictions on car purchases. Also, some are denser with better public transport, some are less dense, and others have worse public transport. Overall I believe it's an interesting perspective.

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Southern cities are doing better than northern cities and eastern cities better than western cities. No surprise there really.
 

supercat

Major
Denied by China’s Ministry of Transport:

Long way to go
Time is on China's side though. That's why some Americans daydream to use India to balance China - but how long do they have to wait? 50 years?

Interestingly, both Japan and South Korea are developing FCEV in China.
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China's gold production and consumption in 2022:
 

henrik

Senior Member
Registered Member
There are two aspects to Hydrogen as a fuel source:
1) developing vehicles, ships and everything that utilizes Hydrogen
2) actually producing the hydrogen fuel itself.

At this point, all the money for 1) is actually going into BEVs and PHEVs. China has probably spend more RnD on hydrogen vehicles than anyone else. But in terms of infrastructure, costs, efficiency level and even car development itself, hydrogen is just way behind battery right now.

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I mean this is pretty unflattering look at current hydrogen inefficiencies. All of this can improve though. I think with more money thrown at this, cost and efficiency will both improve. At this point, the auto market has already spoken, battery EVs (to a less extend PHEV) has won against hydrogen vehicles. BYD has EVs for everything now. So the future application of hydrogen is likely in transportation that requires more dense energy storage like shipping and such. We've seen some battery electric container ships but they can basically just go down Yangtze River and that's it. There is also a lot of industrial usage for hydrogen fuel that you can't do with battery power like mentioned here.
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But the problem can be found later on in that article. Sinopec doesn't expect to make money until 2025. so you need some kind of incentive system where companies are willing to loose money for a while before the technology matures and supply chain gets built up. For all the problems with Chinese gov't, setting long term goals is one thing they can do better than Western democracies.

2) Production of green hydrogen is another issue. As much as it gets talked about, the current hydrogen production in China is like 99% not green. And China already produces electrolyser cheaper and at a higher quantity than anyone else. Even with that, it's going to take years to produce enough to even produce enough hydrogen for their current hydrogen fuel usage level! And we know hydrogen fuel usage is only going higher in the future. I don't even want to think about how much resources will be needed to produce enough electrolysers to actually produce enough green hydrogen. That's why I'm excited about that sea water to hydrogen fuel report. Maybe that's one way for the world to produce enough hydrogen fuel.

btw, this is another area where the Europeans are crying foul about Chinese price.
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From this comparison of electric and hydrogen drive technology, it looks like the crumbling of Japan car industry is going to be fast and furious.
 

luosifen

Senior Member
Registered Member
Why they sent Yellen to talk with China:

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2023-01-20 08:12:24China Daily Editor : Li Yan
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$870b figure in Nov lowest since June 2010, shows financial management
China continued to lower its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds as the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its hawkish stance over the following months, market observers said on Thursday.
According to Treasury International Capital data released by the U.S. Department of Treasury on Wednesday, China decreased its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $7.8 billion in November, marking the third consecutive month of selling. With this, China holds about $870 billion worth of U.S. Treasury bonds, the lowest amount since June 2010.
In October, China cut its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $24 billion, according to TIC data.
Yu Yongding, a member of the Academic Divisions of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said China's reduction in its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds is a measure to adjust the country's balance sheet of overseas assets, which can enhance the security of its overseas assets and increase the net returns on overseas investment.
In November, foreign official institutions sold $12.2 billion of medium-and long-term U.S. securities like Treasury notes and bonds, according to the latest TIC numbers.
Past TIC data show that several central banks sold U.S. Treasury bonds for 49 months since October 2017. Analysts from China International Capital Corp interpreted such selling as a worldwide trend of "de-dollarization".
While the U.S. dollar used to be a global safe haven, economies have been reducing their U.S. Treasury bond holdings over the past few years to lower their over-reliance on the greenback. Such risks of over-reliance became apparent last year during the geopolitical tensions in Europe that were followed by Western financial sanctions on Russia. Diversification of foreign exchange reserves has been more widely adopted by central banks, said CICC experts.
Some economies have sold U.S. Treasury bonds to maintain the stability of their own currencies when the U.S. dollar was soaring over the past few months, they said.
However, Japan, the largest creditor of the United States, stopped its four-month selling that started in July 2022 and increased its U.S. Treasury bond holdings by $17.8 billion in November, making the total sum exceed $1.08 trillion.
Cao Yubo, a financial market researcher from China Construction Bank, said investors tend to decrease their U.S. Treasury bond holdings at a time of rising yields to lower their losses in asset value.They will increase such exposure when yields rise.
Data in the public domain showed the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield came in at 3.366 percent on Thursday, the lowest since September 2022. The 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield touched 4.07 percent, the lowest level since October 2022.
Hawkish expressions have been made by Fed officials recently.James Bullard, St. Louis Fed president, said the Fed should not "stall" on raising its benchmark rates until they are above 5 percent.
While admitting signs of easing inflation thanks to the Fed's sharp interest rate hikes, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said that further rate hikes are still needed to decisively crush the worst inflation in four decades.
Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist of TS Lombard, a global economic and investment strategy research firm, said the market will start to assimilate the negative impact of economic recession in the U.S. later this year, which will exert downward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields.
The next TIC release, which will disclose data for December 2022, is scheduled for Feb 15.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
China’s Foreign Capital Inflows Hit New High as Country Transforms Into Global Tech Hub.

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High-tech industries are becoming the main engines attracting foreign capital. The actual use of foreign investment by Chinese high-tech companies jumped 31.1 percent, with that of high-tech manufacturing sectors soaring 58.8 percent and that of high-tech services sectors jumping 23.5 percent, according to the latest data from the Ministry of Commerce..

Investment from the EU jumped 92.2% in the period.

South Korean investment in the country more than doubled year on year,

while that from Germany soared 52.6 percent, that from the UK surged 33.1 percent and that from Japan jumped 26.6 percent.

Interesting of what kind of investments to Hongkong? around $140B ... woww
 
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