Chinese Economics Thread


s002wjh

Junior Member
Oh so many! So impressive with your personal stories! I saw so many people today; the world must have a bajillion people! :eek:

>80%! I don't play with your personal stories. You'd know when to shut up if you were numerically literate.
it seem even slight different opinion than yours, you get so work up. got a mental maturity of teens ;) anyway no point to reply more cause i know u just gonna bring out all the curse language every time someone had different opinions than you :eek: so out of curiosity why dont you be a hero and work in china. because like you said.
because it's easier being the hero and the big kahuna in China
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
it seem even slight different opinion than yours, you get so work up. got a mental maturity of teens ;)
Seems when someone disagrees and out-debates you with empirical evidence, you get sensitive and wish the other person would just let you slide. Sorry, I came here to debate and you've got the debate skills of a teen o_O
anyway no point to reply more
Cus you can't logically continue a debate
cause i know u just gonna bring out all the curse language every time someone had different opinions than you :eek:
Then get me banned. I wouldn't stop anything with you if you cursed; I'd let you do it and let the mods sort it out. Mature, right?
so out of curiosity why dont you be a hero and work in china. because like you said.
Married a PhD wife who wanted to stay in the US; I told her that's for losers so that's over. That's my first contribution. We're going to XiongAn together. Want my flight itinerary and passport number, Mr. Nosy? Also, didn't you already receive a mod warning for heckling personal questions to escape a previous debate you were also losing?
 
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FairAndUnbiased

Colonel
Registered Member
yea except alot these chinese or indian graduates work in US. US just import talents from all over the world. most research institute or university are filled with chinese, indian or immigrant from other countries or 2nd/3rd gen descendants of chinese/indian etc.
just other days i read TSMC shipping its employee by the plane load to US for its new fabs. all were getting H1B, some eventually green card

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the % of H1B visas being issued is tiny compared to the graduates of Chinese universities.

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only 40k issued to Chinese, 70%+ issued to Indians but even that is only 300k.
 

s002wjh

Junior Member
the % of H1B visas being issued is tiny compared to the graduates of Chinese universities.

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only 40k issued to Chinese, 70%+ issued to Indians but even that is only 300k.
i know, but i dont think US tech have the capacity to handle millions foreign tech worker. just recently there are layoff in the meta field. also alot these graduate will get valuable experience working in place such as intel/amd/applied materials etc, those XP and knowledge can't been acquired easily in grad school.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Colonel
Registered Member
i know, but i dont think US tech have the capacity to handle millions foreign tech worker. just recently there are layoff in the meta field. also alot these graduate will get valuable experience working in place such as intel/amd/applied materials etc, those XP and knowledge can't been acquired easily in grad school.
but that has nothing to do with your original assertion that a large fraction of graduates from Chinese universities goes to work for the US. Less than 1% are even capable of doing so. Maybe a sizable portion of India, but not China. And the biggest users of H1B is not semiconductor, materials, aerospace, etc, but software.
 

s002wjh

Junior Member
but that has nothing to do with your original assertion that a large fraction of graduates from Chinese universities goes to work for the US. Less than 1% are even capable of doing so. Maybe a sizable portion of India, but not China. And the biggest users of H1B is not semiconductor, materials, aerospace, etc, but software.
i didn't say majority of grad went to US for work, i said there are alot foreigner worker in US. software is probably require the most amount of workers compare to other fields. but US company certainly have alot options when choosing foreign tech worker. Consider majority of US grad school are filled with indian, chinese etc. Many of them will submit resume , attend job fair etc
looking at university etc, when was the last time there are more white american professor than someone from india/china or other countries in STEM.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Colonel
Registered Member
i didn't say majority of grad went to US for work, i said there are alot foreigner worker in US. software is probably require the most amount of workers compare to other fields. but US company certainly have alot options when choosing foreign tech worker. Consider majority of US grad school are filled with indian, chinese etc. Many of them will submit resume , attend job fair etc
looking at university etc, when was the last time there are more white american professor than someone from india/china or other countries in STEM.
That is a totally different concept, but note that 40k Chinese H1B holders is a combination of people hired directly from China and those who go to US, educated at US expense, and then work in US.

Btw your original statement:
yea except alot these chinese or indian graduates work in US. US just import talents from all over the world.

Alot is relative. 40k is a lot in isolation, it is nothing compared to 4000k total graduates. And not all of these are STEM, this is total H1B so includes accountants, propaganda workers, etc.
 

horse

Captain
Registered Member
it seem even slight different opinion than yours, you get so work up. got a mental maturity of teens ;) anyway no point to reply more cause i know u just gonna bring out all the curse language every time someone had different opinions than you :eek: so out of curiosity why dont you be a hero and work in china. because like you said.

You are just lying, that is why.

It is like saying a country relying mercenaries is a source of strength.
 

hans_r

New Member
Registered Member
No, those numbers were not cobbled from random sites that report differently; they were obtained from the same site with the functional purpose of making things comparable to each other. The numbers on that site are directly comparable, maybe not to other sites, but certainly to each other.

Your 1.25X has no formula and came out of nowhere. If you wish to establish it, list your sources and your formulas, yes, both of them. Like I did, list the sources for your numbers (make sure they are comparable), the formula through which you've arrived at America's 2022 Q1-3 total and China's 2022 Q1-3 total. |
Sure thing:

For China:
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, "
In the first three quarters, China's GDP grew by 3 percent year-on-year to 87.03 trillion yuan ($12 trillion), up from 2.5 percent rise in the first half, the bureau said."

For the United States: Annualized United States Real GDP in 2021 were 19,216.22; 19,544.25 and 19,678.59 for 1Q, 2Q and 3Q respectively. For 2022, they were 19,924.01; 19,895.27; and 20.021.70. The US 1Q-3Q21 average if GDP was 19,479.69 and for 1Q-3Q22, it was 19,946.99 or a 2.4% increase. (
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3/2.4 = 1.25.
Or we can just wait for annual 2022 data to come out and prove you wrong again.
You can wait, it's going to show China significantly decelerated vis-a-vis the United States
Just now, you're admitting that China accelerated its economic growth in relation to the US during COVID whereas in all your previous accounts, you pretended that that was not the case. In the future, you will admit that China won 2022, 2023, 2024, etc... year-by-year but try to twist data for why it's losing 20XX.
It's unambigiously true that China's convergence vis-a-vis the United States has slowed substantially in the first 3 quarters of 2021 and since China still has zero COVID, well, lol, 2022 counts as part of COVID as well.
There was actually a typo when I got the 3.88X. For China 2020 and 2021, it's actually 1.0224x1.0811=1.1053 to America's 0.966x1.0567=1.0208, which is 10.53% to 2.08%, which is 5.06X. Then 7.71X followed.
1.25x followed. Even if you assume the most bullish growth forecasts for China (i.e.; China grows 4% in 2022) and the most bearish growth forecasts foor the United States (i.e., the US grows at 1.9% in 2022), the US economy would be 4% larger than it was in 2020; China's would be 14.9% larger or about 2x. So indeed, zero COVID has truly cut the rate for which CHina's economic convergence happened from a pre-COVID of 3.88x to a during-COVID of 3.66x (yes, 2022 counts as a during-COVID since China still has fanatical zero-COVID)
Additionally, this is nominal GDP
Um, yes? But in any case, PPP and NOminal GDP growth basically track each other since GDP growth units are always reported in local currency units
1. Even if China was growing at 1.25x the pace of the US, it is still converging in nominal terms.
If the US grew at 2.4% continuously and China grew at 3% continously, China would only surpass the US in 45 years (but it would probably never happen since China's GDP growth would fall substantially due to the demographic crisis)
It's only NOT converging in PPP terms because it's ahead of the US and enlarging that lead.
PPP terms try to correct for cost of living differences but trying to correct for the mechanism by which economic development happens is indeed LOLCOW (
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2. Don't use words when you don't know what they mean, even if in your imagination, they make you sound smart
Metastisize - (of a cancer) spread to other sites in the body by metastasis.
Metastasis - the development of secondary malignant growths at a distance from a primary site of cancer
Here's another word: vernacular which you can look up (
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). Metastasize is used in the vernacular to describe an issue getting bigger and getting worse - the Merriam-Webster has a few examples of that :).
Oh, so now it's not "irreparable" anymore, eh? LOL You so desperately want to see China make a mistake and end up like the US you can't even hide it.
It's irreparable: birth rates have already crashed, labor force participation is already lower and business investment activity is forever lower as well - whether it recovers to some semblance to normal or whether it doesn't is of course, up to China to see if it wants to correct its own fanatical zero COVID mistakes can get to maybe 4-5% growth, maybe not.
 

Abominable

Captain
Registered Member
What kind of high level cope is this? China very much wants economic growth (
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), it just can’t get it because of zero COVID fanaticism, business crackdowns and hostility towards the private sector, an inefficient private sector, sanctions, weak educational attainment, bad population health, etc. if China wanted to limit spillovers to western grown: China could stop trade and investment with the West (of course, that’s not happening, the reverse is).
Stopping trade has political consequences. We saw that when China sanctioned Lithuania.

Why are the lockdowns only affecting the non essential parts of the Chinese economy. Why don't we hear about military projects being slowed down?

If China wanted economic growth it could just end the zero covid mandate, we seem to agree on that.
Being able to build almost anything implies being unable to build some things, I.e., future potential growth. Of course, China’s lack of strength or scale in high-tech manufacturing is available for the world to see with the recent semiconductor sanctions (and China’s inability to duplicate what ASML can produce, with its 31K employees).

There’s more to demand growth than export growth - consumption and investment driven growth are also possible (well except for now due to fanatical zero COVID lol)

Except somehow raise incomes. But nah, there’s always more demands for money than there is money to fulfill them.

Fewer resources doesn’t favor the Chinese consumer in any way.
Yes, China needs to move away from export lead growth and switch over to consumer based growth. This can't happen overnight and will take a reorientation of the economy.

As for fewer resources, Chinese manufacturing output is far more than the domestic market can handle.

Slightly offtopic. How do you feel about America bribing and coercing semiconductor manufacturers to relocate to America?
 

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