I think China will see continued sequential growth in the 4th quarter. Zero Covid will prob ease somewhat as the government shifts focus to economic recovery after the Party Congress. External demand based on export growth will remain good. Prob see growth of 3-4% in the 4th quarter if covid policies can be relaxed. Overall annual growth can still be around 3%. Not too bad.
No chance China will ease restriction heading into winter. At this point Chinese public's level of immunity is significantly less than peer countries due to 1) less effective vaccines and 2) no natural immunity from infections. Chinese healthcare system is also overall less capable. It's going to be a public health disaster to ease restriction now.
The biggest hope is on new Chinese vaccines. Livzon is testing a nasal spray version of its bivalent fusion protein vaccine. CanSino is developing its second generation aerosolized adenovirus vector vaccine. China can end lockdown if one of them work out and there's production capacity available (doubtful for CanSino). At this point we're waiting for a technological miracle.