Chinese Economics Thread

[hhuang41]

That's one of the biggest lies from MSM. Countries such as Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea which use mostly mRNA vaccines have their hospitals overwhelmed and were forced to turn away patients. Don't know why people are still spreading such lies.

Taiwan COVID cases: 5.85M, Taiwan COVID deaths: 10,423. Taiwan Case Fatality Rate: (~0.18%)
Korea COVID cases: 24.3M, Korea COVID deaths: 27,725. Korea Case Fatality Rate: (~0.11%)
Japan COVID cases: 20.5M, Japan COVID deaths: 43,378. Japan Case Fatality Rate: (~0.216%)

Flu
United States Flu Cases: 41 million, US flu deaths: 52K. US flu Case Fatality Rate: (~0.13%)

COVID with mRNA vaccines (or any vaccines at appropriate dosage) turn it into a flu.

Indeed - the risk for Omicron and the subsequent waves is even lower according to the China CDC
"In the Shanghai Omicron wave, the risk of developing severe illness was very low (0.065%, 22/33,816)"

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[Strangelove]

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China aims to establish around 220 national hi-tech zones by 2025

China will have about 220 national hi-tech zones by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025), according to the Ministry of Science and Technology, covering most of its prefecture-level cities in the eastern part of the country and major prefecture-level cities in the central and western parts.

Li Youping, an official with the ministry, said at a press conference on Wednesday that the total output value of the national hi-tech zones grew from 5.4 trillion yuan (about $781.3 billion) in 2012 to 15.3 trillion yuan in 2021.

In 2021, China's national high-tech zones generated 13.4 percent of GDP with 2.5 percent of the country's land for construction, he added.

Over the past decade, the national hi-tech zones have made major breakthroughs in fields such as

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,

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, the

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, domestically produced

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and

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, according to the press conference.

They have also participated in a series of major national scientific and technological missions, including the development of the deep-sea manned submersible

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, the launch of the

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spaceship and the research and development of

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.
The country has established 173 national hi-tech zones so far.

 

[KYli]

Taiwan COVID cases: 5.85M, Taiwan COVID deaths: 10,423. Taiwan Case Fatality Rate: (~0.18%)
Korea COVID cases: 24.3M, Korea COVID deaths: 27,725. Korea Case Fatality Rate: (~0.11%)
Japan COVID cases: 20.5M, Japan COVID deaths: 43,378. Japan Case Fatality Rate: (~0.216%)

Flu
United States Flu Cases: 41 million, US flu deaths: 52K. US flu Case Fatality Rate: (~0.13%)

COVID with mRNA vaccines (or any vaccines at appropriate dosage) turn it into a flu.

Indeed - the risk for Omicron and the subsequent waves is even lower according to the China CDC
"In the Shanghai Omicron wave, the risk of developing severe illness was very low (0.065%, 22/33,816)"

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Average 400 deaths per day. 221,000 deaths so far this in the US. That means covid would kill 5-6 times more than worst flu year even after so called new Normal. Maybe the US doesn't have a choice but we should be reminded that this is a price that needs to pay for abandoning covid restrictions.

You can cherry pick the data all you want but the truth is right there. US has over half millions excess deaths both in 2020 and 2021 and this year 2022 it doesn't look like there are that much less.

As for flu deaths, in a good year there are 20,000 deaths and in a bad year there are between 50,000 to 60,000 flu mortality. Again you cherry pick a number to support your argument but the truth is flu mortality rate is between 0.02 and 0.11.

As opposed to slavishly following a policy which has caused 20% youth unemployment and the slowest growth in decades?

Another half baked lie, It is true that there is high unemployment rate for youth due to various reasons. However, in a good year when most college students or graduated students graduated and looking for works, the youth unemployment rate always shot up to almost 15%. That means a 20% youth unemployment isn't as bad as some people try to make it.

In addition, in the latest data, youth unemployment has declined to 18.7%.

 

[hhuang41]

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Average 400 deaths per day. 221,000 deaths so far this in the US. That means covid would kill 5-6 times more than worst flu year even after so called new Normal. Maybe the US doesn't have a choice but we should be reminded that this is a price that needs to pay for abandoning covid restrictions.

China's population is much healthier than the US; has a higher vaccination rate and US deaths come overwhelmingly from unvaxxinated people. The price for abandoning zero-COVID in China would be *much* lower given higher vaccination rates. In any case, even if you were uncomfortable with a full reopening; Taiwan, Korea and Japan all have far more open zero-COVID policies with very low mortality and can serve as templates.

You can cherry pick the data all you want but the truth is right there. US has over half millions excess deaths both in 2020 and 2021 and this year 2022 it doesn't look like there are that much less.

Indeed, zero-COVID made sense in 2020 and 2021. It does not make sense in 2022.

As for flu deaths, in a good year there are 20,000 deaths and in a bad year there are between 50,000 to 60,000 flu mortality. Again you cherry pick a number to support your argument but the truth is flu mortality rate is between 0.02 and 0.11.

50-60K annual flu mortality is normal and no one ever says to lockdown over a bad flu season. COVID is a bad flu right now; thus, there is 0 need to shut down.

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Another half baked lie, It is true that there is high unemployment rate for youth due to various reasons. However, in a good year when most college students or graduated students graduated and looking for works, the youth unemployment rate always shot up to almost 15%. That means a 20% youth unemployment isn't as bad as some people try to make it.

This is wrong. Large college enrollments is a very new phenomea in China and in any case, youth unemployment as high as it is now is historically unprecedented.

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In addition, in the latest data, youth unemployment has declined to 18.7%.

The US youth unemployment rate is 8%

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

That's one of the biggest lies from MSM. Countries such as Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea which use mostly mRNA vaccines have their hospitals overwhelmed and were forced to turn away patients. Don't know why people are still spreading such lies.

Because they're frankly idiots and propagandists

 

[KYli]

China's population is much healthier than the US; has a higher vaccination rate and US deaths come overwhelmingly from unvaxxinated people. The price for abandoning zero-COVID in China would be *much* lower given higher vaccination rates. In any case, even if you were uncomfortable with a full reopening; Taiwan, Korea and Japan all have far more open zero-COVID policies with very low mortality and can serve as templates.

So how you make the comparison, you have nothing to support your claim. Again, that is no longer true as majority of deaths are now vaccinated. Again, that is false as China has very low vaccination rate for people over 80 which are most vulnerable group.

Taiwan, Korea, and Japan reopening are all failures. All of them have their hospitals overwhelmed and deaths piled up and patients turn away.

Indeed, zero-COVID made sense in 2020 and 2021. It does not make sense in 2022.

It is not like the West is doing any better so saying zero covid doesn't make sense is premature.

50-60K annual flu mortality is normal and no one ever says to lockdown over a bad flu season. COVID is a bad flu right now; thus, there is 0 need to shut down.

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That's false. In a bad flu season, many schools were shut down to prevent spreading and hospitals overwhelmed. I still remember how 2009 flu outbreak that caused a lot of shutdowns.

This is wrong. Large college enrollments is a very new phenomea in China and in any case, youth unemployment as high as it is now is historically unprecedented.

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The US youth unemployment rate is 8%

Another useless data, we are talking about monthly youth unemployment rate not annual rate. Go check out the monthly rate and see there is always up and down seasonally from 8% to 15% in a normal year.

US data is irrelevant to this discussion.

 

[hhuang41]

So how you make the comparison, you have nothing to support your claim. Again, that is no longer true as majority of deaths are now vaccinated.

Wrong

Again, that is false as China has very low vaccination rate for people over 80 which are most vulnerable group.

If China is coercieve enough to lock down ~100M people; they can be coercieve enough to get those people vaccines.

Taiwan, Korea, and Japan reopening are all failures. All of them have their hospitals overwhelmed and deaths piled up and patients turn away.

Wrong. They literally have the virulence of the flu.

That's false. In a bad flu season, many schools were shut down to prevent spreading and hospitals overwhelmed. I still remember how 2009 flu outbreak that caused a lot of shutdowns.

Businesses opened as usual. A few schools closed - which has about 0 effect on the economy.

Another useless data, we are talking about monthly youth unemployment rate not annual rate. Go check out the monthly rate and see there is always up and down seasonally from 8% to 15% in a normal year.

CEIC has data going back to January 2018 which shows one ~13% peak in 2018, ~14% peak in 2019, ~17% peak in 2020, ~16% peak in 2021 and ~19% peak in 2022 (not in the graph but widely reported). Graduation season can't explain that, especially since graduation season was months ago

US data is irrelevant to this discussion.

It absolutely is - as to compare against a non zero-COVID hypothetical.

 

[KYli]

Wrong

Provide data to back up your claim. Due to the fact that majority of elderly have been vaccinated in the US, more deaths are now vaccinated than not vaccinated. It doesn't mean vaccines are not effective to lower deaths but it does show why the US deaths have been stubbornly stayed at 400.

If China is coercieve enough to lock down ~100M people; they can be coercieve enough to get those people vaccines.

That's why you have no understanding of China.

Wrong. They literally have the virulence of the flu.

Both hospitalizations and deaths say otherwise.

Businesses opened as usual. A few schools closed - which has about 0 effect on the economy.

Then you are wrong to say there is no shutdowns. Mexico actually shutdowns for 5 days both schools and businesses. Many developing countries were also having many shutdowns.

CEIC has data going back to January 2018 which shows one ~13% peak in 2018, ~14% peak in 2019, ~17% peak in 2020, ~16% peak in 2021 and ~19% peak in 2022 (not in the graph but widely reported). Graduation season can't explain that, especially since graduation season was months ago

That means I am right to say there is seasonal factors of youth unemployment. Again, it takes time for youngsters to look for works and it is normal for youth unemployment to stay elevated until late fall. And I never say it isn't a tough year for youth employment. I am saying 20% is an over hyped statistics that MSM uses.

It absolutely is - as to compare against a non zero-COVID hypothetical.

Making comparison requires you to assess all relevant data. Using a single data to jump to conclusion is just an attempt to distort and manipulate data.

US labor participation rate is 1% lower than 2020. US quarterly productivity decreases 4.1% in June quarter after a 7.4% decrease in March quarter. Do you understand what these two data mean? It means that so many people quit the job market due to covid and many people were forced to call out sick due to covid. And companies were forced to hire more people as so many people are sick.

 

[vincent]

Wrong

If China is coercieve enough to lock down ~100M people; they can be coercieve enough to get those people vaccines.

Wrong. They literally have the virulence of the flu.

Businesses opened as usual. A few schools closed - which has about 0 effect on the economy.

CEIC has data going back to January 2018 which shows one ~13% peak in 2018, ~14% peak in 2019, ~17% peak in 2020, ~16% peak in 2021 and ~19% peak in 2022 (not in the graph but widely reported). Graduation season can't explain that, especially since graduation season was months ago

It absolutely is - as to compare against a non zero-COVID hypothetical.

Worry about your own country first

 

[hhuang41]

Provide data to back up your claim. Due to the fact that majority of elderly have been vaccinated in the US, more deaths are now vaccinated than not vaccinated. It doesn't mean vaccines are not effective to lower deaths but it does show why the US deaths have been stubbornly stayed at 400.

70% of the US population is vaccinated but death rates for vaccinated people is ~5-6x less than unvaccinated people.

That's why you have no understanding of China.

Yes, vaccine mandates are more coercieve than lockdowns. Makes sense lol

Both hospitalizations and deaths say otherwise.

Literally the same case fatality as the flu

Then you are wrong to say there is no shutdowns. Mexico actually shutdowns for 5 days both schools and businesses. Many developing countries were also having many shutdowns.

China did not shut down.

That means I am right to say there is seasonal factors of youth unemployment. Again, it takes time for youngsters to look for works and it is normal for youth unemployment to stay elevated until late fall. And I never say it isn't a tough year for youth employment. I am saying 20% is an over hyped statistics that MSM uses.

20% was in fact true and even now, the unemployment rate is higher than it ever has been.

Making comparison requires you to assess all relevant data. Using a single data to jump to conclusion is just an attempt to distort and manipulate data.

Should we then compare against youth unemployment in Korea, Vietnam, Japan and Taiwan?

US labor participation rate is 1% lower than 2020. US quarterly productivity decreases 4.1% in June quarter after a 7.4% decrease in March quarter. Do you understand what these two data mean?

It means the stock market went up and older people retired from the workforce and that the labor market has recovered so much that even hospitality has hiring difficulties. Productivity is a residual of the growth in labor hours compared to the growth in incomes; obviously, when the labor market is doing strong and hours at low productivity segments like restaurants and hotels are hiring like crazy, that would increase working hours substantially without much income growth.