Chinese Economics Thread

[gadgetcool5]

Chinese Economy Grew More Than 18% in First Quarter​

The 18.3% year-over-year growth rate for the first quarter is the highest since China began reporting quarterly GDP in 1992, surpassing the 15.3% rate in the first quarter of 1993.

But stripping out the statistical distortion from last year’s low base of comparison, economists at HSBC in Hong Kong estimate that underlying year-over-year GDP growth in the first three months of 2021 was about 5.4%, lower than the pre-coronavirus trend of roughly 6% growth. The bank expects the economy to continue “running below full speed” in the coming months.

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[Temstar]

Chinese Economy Grew More Than 18% in First Quarter​

The 18.3% year-over-year growth rate for the first quarter is the highest since China began reporting quarterly GDP in 1992, surpassing the 15.3% rate in the first quarter of 1993.

But stripping out the statistical distortion from last year’s low base of comparison, economists at HSBC in Hong Kong estimate that underlying year-over-year GDP growth in the first three months of 2021 was about 5.4%, lower than the pre-coronavirus trend of roughly 6% growth. The bank expects the economy to continue “running below full speed” in the coming months.

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5.4% in Q1 is about right for 6% growth target over the whole year. Q2 and Q3 are the big growth quarters, particularly with this year where CNY activities were deliberately suppressed.

 

[quantumlight]

Chinese Economy Grew More Than 18% in First Quarter​

The 18.3% year-over-year growth rate for the first quarter is the highest since China began reporting quarterly GDP in 1992, surpassing the 15.3% rate in the first quarter of 1993.

But stripping out the statistical distortion from last year’s low base of comparison, economists at HSBC in Hong Kong estimate that underlying year-over-year GDP growth in the first three months of 2021 was about 5.4%, lower than the pre-coronavirus trend of roughly 6% growth. The bank expects the economy to continue “running below full speed” in the coming months.

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The is because of dollar inflation and Peak Oil
When the US prints stimulus it negatively affects the rest of the world, and China cannot be shielded from this given its size
Also when energy inputs get more expensive, not just economically but from energy standpoint (EROEI) this has a dampening effect on growth as well

 

[Deleted member 15949]

5.4% in Q1 is about right for 6% growth target over the whole year. Q2 and Q3 are the big growth quarters, particularly with this year where CNY activities were deliberately suppressed.

It's a quarter/q_t-4 so there aren't seasonals at play. I'd be more interested in getting growth rates by sector but those I can't since the NBS website isn't working

 

[Deleted member 15887]

5.4% in Q1 is about right for 6% growth target over the whole year. Q2 and Q3 are the big growth quarters, particularly with this year where CNY activities were deliberately suppressed.

Technically 18.3% growth translates to 5.5% growth average over the past 2 years since 2019. Not bad, but room for improvement exists, as ideally, growth should remain somewhere between 5.5-6% over the next 5 years at least.

Having said that, even despite the virus restrictions of February, withdrawal of stimulus, skyrocketing commodity prices (causing net imports to weigh down on the rest of the economy) and massive deleveraging efforts by PBOC, that the economy still grew 18.3% is a good sign. An especially good sign is how retail sales shot through the roof:

"In March, retail sales jumped 34.2% from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday. The result was higher than 33.8% growth posted in the first two months of the year and beat economists’ expectation for 28% growth. In month-on-month terms, retail sales rose 1.75% in March, accelerating from 0.56% in February."

This indicates consumption, after lagging for much of last year, is finally starting to roar back with full force. Coupled with the fact US stimulus only started rolling out mid-late March, Chinese exports + industrial production will likely continue accelerating relative to last year. If China can ramp up vaccinations such that 50% of people are fully vaccinated by the end of June, and herd-immunity by September, growth above 9% cannot be ruled out (growth should be at least 8.5% for FY2021)

 

[Nutrient]

My Internet provider messed up, so this reply will be a day late.

It's dismal because you can't refute it and it makes you look bad and lots of people agree LOL

As I said, "I demonstrated why your reasoning was obviously dismal: saying that billionaires aren't necessary is far from saying that they should be eliminated. You can't answer this, so you fall back on popularity arguments."

I've already proven that for a competitive modern tech power, billionaires are indeed necessary.

I completely destroyed your every argument, so you claim victory and leave, just like the US Army from Saigon.

 

[weig2000]

Technically 18.3% growth translates to 5.5% growth average over the past 2 years since 2019. Not bad, but room for improvement exists, as ideally, growth should remain somewhere between 5.5-6% over the next 5 years at least.

Having said that, even despite the virus restrictions of February, withdrawal of stimulus, skyrocketing commodity prices (causing net imports to weigh down on the rest of the economy) and massive deleveraging efforts by PBOC, that the economy still grew 18.3% is a good sign. An especially good sign is how retail sales shot through the roof:

"In March, retail sales jumped 34.2% from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday. The result was higher than 33.8% growth posted in the first two months of the year and beat economists’ expectation for 28% growth. In month-on-month terms, retail sales rose 1.75% in March, accelerating from 0.56% in February."

This indicates consumption, after lagging for much of last year, is finally starting to roar back with full force. Coupled with the fact US stimulus only started rolling out mid-late March, Chinese exports + industrial production will likely continue accelerating relative to last year. If China can ramp up vaccinations such that 50% of people are fully vaccinated by the end of June, and herd-immunity by September, growth above 9% cannot be ruled out (growth should be at least 8.5% for FY2021)

Travel bookings, including air flights, hotels and tourist site tickets, for the upcoming May 1 holiday are shooting through the roof, and have greatly exceeded those of 2019. Historical records are going to be set.

 

[manqiangrexue]

My Internet provider messed up, so this reply will be a day late.

No, you messed up; they were trying to help you stop humiliating yourself LOL

As I said, "I demonstrated why your reasoning was obviously dismal: saying that billionaires aren't necessary is far from saying that they should be eliminated. You can't answer this, so you fall back on popularity arguments."

And I answered,

"I've already proven that for a competitive modern tech power, billionaires are indeed necessary. While you did not directly say that they need to be eliminated, I was responding to the general old generation commie vibe that they steal and cheat and they are a drain from society. And obviously, if something is a drain, it should be eliminated.

Furthermore, your stupid plan to deprive billionaires of privacy will drive them out. Taxation is one thing; billionaires can afford more taxes, but privacy is invaluable and will devastate someone's lifestyle regardless of their wealth if this basic human right is taken away."

I completely destroyed your every argument, so you claim victory and leave, just like the US Army from Saigon.

I didn't go anywhere LOL. You're the one with the "internet problems."

And when I actually destroy your "arguments" about the 1,000 year old fire crackers you tried to pass off as rockets and the dead semiconductor company, I do it in a point-to-point ignoring not one word. You just claimed to "destroy" an argument while you can't even touch it. Look at the shortness and emptiness of your replies and look at how my replies address everything you say. Then, you claim "victory" literally by just saying that you won while ignoring my rebuttal, then hide behind your internet. You think I can't see when you last visited this thread then slinked away empty-minded to find some courage 2 days later hoping I don't care anymore LOLOL The Saigon retreat is firmly yours except you can't even get away!

 

[LesAdieux]

Chinese Economy Grew More Than 18% in First Quarter​

The 18.3% year-over-year growth rate for the first quarter is the highest since China began reporting quarterly GDP in 1992, surpassing the 15.3% rate in the first quarter of 1993.

But stripping out the statistical distortion from last year’s low base of comparison, economists at HSBC in Hong Kong estimate that underlying year-over-year GDP growth in the first three months of 2021 was about 5.4%, lower than the pre-coronavirus trend of roughly 6% growth. The bank expects the economy to continue “running below full speed” in the coming months.

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well if you want shit on China, you can always find guys full of crap. here wsj got a bunch from HSBC. they didn't tell you how they did the calculation. since China's GDP only contracted 6.8% in Q1 2020, any proper calculation cannot arrive at that 5.4%.

 

[hkbc]

The is because of dollar inflation and Peak Oil
When the US prints stimulus it negatively affects the rest of the world, and China cannot be shielded from this given its size
Also when energy inputs get more expensive, not just economically but from energy standpoint (EROEI) this has a dampening effect on growth as well

This has little if anything to do with China's Q1 growth numbers, domestic retail growth is higher than expected but industrial growth lower the numbers are in RMB not dollars when the rest of the world is in lock down that puts a damper on foreign markets. Petroleum contracts for actual industrial usage rather than trading are signed months if not years ahead that's why there's an oil futures market and hedging. Printing dollars has an negative impact on the rest of the world but that's nothing to do with this set of growth numbers

Beyond that disingenuous western MSM is pointing to a 0.6% growth vis-a-vis Q4 but not mentioning the usual Q1 slowdown because of chinese new year! They should wheel out Gordon Chang again to promote his 20 year old book about the 'coming' fall of China!

Its quite hilarious that with everyone else posting negative growth numbers the only thing they can say is that China's numbers are not 'where they think they should be!'