Chinese Economics Thread

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Deleted member 15887

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j17wang said:
Is the idea to grow cities like Shanghai Beijing, Shengzhen, Guangdong past 20 million people, reaching 30 million? While I agree that bigger is usually better, the returns to personal GDP probably decline once cities are in the +20 million, which is why even rich cities like New York, LA, Tokyo, and Seoul are about the same size. I think its more worthwhile to make sure most of the provincial capitals are in the ~10 million range, where basically any service can now be provided to citizens due to large enough of a city market (think specialized leisure like amusement parks, indoor skydiving, race tracks, multiple sport teams)
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Greater Tokyo has 40 million people, about 1/3 of Japan's entire population. It's not unreasonable for the Shanghai metropolitan region to have ~50-60 million people (
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), as long as population density is managed. What makes bigger cities more productive are agglomeration effects (agglomeration of industries creates immense economies of scale, agglomeration of talent and labor can encourage innovation, plus bigger cities are just more environmentally friendly per capita).

Glad to see the central government recognizing the flaws behind their strict population control for the biggest cities.
 
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Deleted member 15887

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Anyhow, based on recent indications on urban policy direction, I estimate this will be the potential size for top 4 Chinese urban metro areas by 2035:
  1. Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong (Pearl River Delta) Metropolitan Area: ~ 80 - 90 million (Current Population: >55 million)
  2. Shanghai Metropolitan Area (including Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou): ~ 50 - 60 million (Current Population: >34 million)
  3. Beijing Metropolitan Area: ~ 30 million (Current Population: >20 million)
  4. Chengdu Metropolitan Area: ~ 30 million ( Current Population: ~15 million)
 
A

AndrewS

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cbl21 said:
Greater Tokyo has 40 million people, about 1/3 of Japan's entire population. It's not unreasonable for the Shanghai metropolitan region to have ~50-60 million people (
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), as long as population density is managed. What makes bigger cities more productive are agglomeration effects (agglomeration of industries creates immense economies of scale, agglomeration of talent and labor can encourage innovation, plus bigger cities are just more environmentally friendly per capita).

Glad to see the central government recognizing the flaws behind their strict population control for the biggest cities.
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There's a hefty McKinsey report below from 2009, which I think was the basis of much of the Chinese urbanisation plan.

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T

Tyler

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cbl21 said:
Anyhow, based on recent indications on urban policy direction, I estimate this will be the potential size for top 4 Chinese urban metro areas by 2035:
  1. Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong (Pearl River Delta) Metropolitan Area: ~ 80 - 90 million (Current Population: >55 million)
  2. Shanghai Metropolitan Area (including Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou): ~ 50 - 60 million (Current Population: >34 million)
  3. Beijing Metropolitan Area: ~ 30 million (Current Population: >20 million)
  4. Chengdu Metropolitan Area: ~ 30 million ( Current Population: ~15 million)
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How about Chongqing which already has 30 million people now?
How about Beijing and Tianjin region?
 
NiuBiDaRen

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AndrewS said:
There's a hefty McKinsey report below from 2009, which I think was the basis of much of the Chinese urbanisation plan.

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Well I hope they don't rely on McKinsey only as a blueprint for urbanization! Think there's a debate right now among urban planners and economists between spreading out and concentrating even more, and hopefully the debate doesn't get hijacked by special interests groups!

It seems McKinsey China is nowhere as big as McKinsey Japan, and only bigger than McKinsey Korea. Which is a good thing. You can't trust consultants 100% for government planning and policies. They're in it to squeeze your buck.

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Also consulting firms are a security risk. Imagine if Chinese local and provincial governments divulged all their plans and details to McKinsey when hiring McK to assist in policy planning. While McKinsey would profess confidentiality, it is an American firm after all. As the article mentions, Chinese governments at every level should be wary of divulging all their secrets to McKinsey.

Can't trust the 洋鬼子！
 
Team Blue

Team Blue

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cbl21 said:
Greater Tokyo has 40 million people, about 1/3 of Japan's entire population. It's not unreasonable for the Shanghai metropolitan region to have ~50-60 million people (
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
), as long as population density is managed. What makes bigger cities more productive are agglomeration effects (agglomeration of industries creates immense economies of scale, agglomeration of talent and labor can encourage innovation, plus bigger cities are just more environmentally friendly per capita).

Glad to see the central government recognizing the flaws behind their strict population control for the biggest cities.
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I hope they avoid the god awful sprawl of suburbs. It'd be disappointing to see those taking up most of the land like the U.S.
 
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AndrewS

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Crang said:
Well I hope they don't rely on McKinsey only as a blueprint for urbanization! Think there's a debate right now among urban planners and economists between spreading out and concentrating even more, and hopefully the debate doesn't get hijacked by special interests groups!

It seems McKinsey China is nowhere as big as McKinsey Japan, and only bigger than McKinsey Korea. Which is a good thing. You can't trust consultants 100% for government planning and policies. They're in it to squeeze your buck.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Also consulting firms are a security risk. Imagine if Chinese local and provincial governments divulged all their plans and details to McKinsey when hiring McK to assist in policy planning. While McKinsey would profess confidentiality, it is an American firm after all. As the article mentions, Chinese governments at every level should be wary of divulging all their secrets to McKinsey.

Can't trust the 洋鬼子！
Click to expand...

It's not the detailed planning, but the overall cost-benefit of different approaches to urbanisation

eg. Supercities versus Hub-and-spoke Clusters versus decentralised.

This is at the Ministry level.
 
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