Let's eat all their lunchesAs I said it before, it might be as close as 2025.
The Japanese are usually pretty conservative with their estimates, I wouldn't be surprised if the date was closer to 2025 than 2026.
The thing to really watch out for is all the tech that's coming out of China in the next 2-3 years. By the way innovate/integrate, once they can domesticate 24-14nm semiconductors, you will see a lot of collapse in major Western tech firm (particularly US firms) as Chinese tech out competes them in both price and performance.
Once corporate revenue falls, military is not far behind as everything is based on tax revenue.