Chinese Economics Thread

manqiangrexue

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This shows that fixed asset investment growth by the private sector has collapsed since 2011. This is not good. I hope Xi Jinping doesn't take China back to the days of central planning, when someone like Jack Ma could never get ahead.
At the pace that China's minting new billionaires, I wouldn't worry about them. Plus, if it's something that's been on the decline (or collapse, whatever that means as written by someone who calls every diplomatic word exchange an unmitigated disaster) since 2011, then seeing China's growth in these 9 years, I'm confident everything will be more than ok.
 

horse

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This shows that fixed asset investment growth by the private sector has collapsed since 2011. This is not good. I hope Xi Jinping doesn't take China back to the days of central planning, when someone like Jack Ma could never get ahead.
That was a pretty article, will read it again later, only skimmed a few paragraphs.

What I did not see, was the percentage of the state and the private sector, how much are they in percentage terms in the Chinese economy.

I thought I read somewhere that the private sector accounts for 68% of production in the Chinese economy, a stat from the CCP.

The trend of the state sector getting smaller in the Chinese economy, since the Mao era, has long passed the point of being reversible. It use to be 100% right, and now the private sector is double the size of the state sector.

The article is still good, as with the economy there is always a lot of contradictory data. They should not have this omission, how large is exactly the state sector?
 
D

Deleted member 15887

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This shows that fixed asset investment growth by the private sector has collapsed since 2011. This is not good. I hope Xi Jinping doesn't take China back to the days of central planning, when someone like Jack Ma could never get ahead.
State sector is not inherently bad. The private sector for numerous critical industries is not suitable. Such as railroads: just look at Britain's failing privatized railway system. Rabid capitalism and privatisation is no good, because the pursuit of profits will hold back certain areas of the economy, such as in the sphere of public goods.
I think its an exaggeration to call it "central planning" when the public sector is dwarfed by the private sector. As for fixed-asset investment decline: you realize its still in the stable high single-digits (except for this year)? This is in line with China's growth rate; much of the infrastructure has already been built out, it just needs further optimization.
 

caudaceus

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horse

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caudaceus

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Think of the principle concepts involved.

The medium of exchange, we can use gold, silver, or US Dollars for example.

But with US Dollars, going through the US banking system, those transactions can be sanctioned.

Therefore, if we do not want our transactions potential sanctioned, do not use US Dollars.

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That sentence that we find interesting, my opinion is that it is false. It is just sugarcoating it, that there is no effect, as of today I would believe.

Consider this. Suppose Iran telecom companies buys some Huawei equipment. Huawei would have some sort of office in Iran. The telecom company pays Huawei office in Iran with Iranian rial, suppose it is a check. Now that money is in Huawei Iranian bank account in rial.

Next, they should just exchange rial into RMB. Then the RMB leaves the country, via the DCEP or WeChat. No US Dollars are involved in this transaction.

DCEP and WeChat already operational, just the DCEP working out the details.

Mass adaptation has not happened for DCEP yet, but look how fast China went cashless as a society.

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Longer term, this is where the complicated parts are as they are rooted in history and the current system, the role of the US Dollar will change.

What does that mean, that is hard to say.

For example, the trade deal RCEP, in the long run they probably will not use dollars in that block. The EU, most of their trade is not in dollars inside the Euro block, it would be in Euros.

The Americans do not want to talk about this.

:) :oops:
I remember we have sinodefence's own GDP estimation back then. How is it compared to this study?
 

Franklin

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This shows that fixed asset investment growth by the private sector has collapsed since 2011. This is not good. I hope Xi Jinping doesn't take China back to the days of central planning, when someone like Jack Ma could never get ahead.
I have read the entire article and I strongly disagree with this statement:

The economic policies that helped nurture e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. , tech conglomerate Tencent Holdings Ltd. and other global success stories seem to be at an end, say economists inside and outside China. As a result, they say, Chinese companies are becoming less like American ones, which are driven by market forces and depend on private innovation and consumption.

US companies are not market driven anymore but are nurtured by the Federal Reserve's printing press. Asset bubble's, debt, zombie companies and moral hazard are spreading faster in the US than wildfires.

But even if just half what she wrote about China is true. Then this is indeed very disturbing. China too will end up like the US now in a couple of years time.
 

Franklin

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I'm sure that Tsinghua will find a way through for now, but it's worth keeping an eye on whether it can pay bonds due next year. If not then that will be a bad sign. If it can then it will have a fair bit of breathing room to get funds for 2023 and onwards.
Tsinghua Semi should go bankrupt if they can't pay. Then their talents and marketshare will simply flow to their rivals to create true champions. Instead of throwing good money after bad supporting unprofitable companies. You need a little bit of darwinism here.
 
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