Chinese Economics Thread

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Looks like Beijing really want 4 more years of Trump, which makes sense. The amount of damage Trump has done in his last 4 years to American long term interests and power have been ‘enormously massive, the greatest in history’, as he would put it.

I think Beijing is on the fence on Trump versus Biden.

Trump is an unpredictable high-risk, but also high-reward..

In comparison, Biden is predictable and low-risk, but the trajectory and the end result is pretty similar. It just takes longer to get there.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
It is ironic isn't it they want to throttle Chinese technology import but ending up buying more Chinese technical product.
If you read MSM sound like the death knell of Chinese export because lack of demand in the western countries and tariff but reality is something else
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China cashes in on America's coronavirus lockdown
China's tech shipments surged 37% in the three months through June
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’s
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is getting a boost from soaring demand for tech products that make it easier and more efficient for Americans to work from home during the
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pandemic, according to economists at one Wall Street bank.
Tech shipments from China soared 37% from a year earlier in the April-through-June quarter, contributing 2.4 percentage points to the country’s overall export growth of 2%, wrote William Deng and Tao Wang, Hong Kong-based economists at investment bank UBS.

“Export shipments of automatic data processing units and parts, which include computers, tablets, monitors and parts, have seen a significant upswing since April,” according to Deng and Wang, who said Korea and Taiwan are also seeing “significant acceleration.”
Purchases by the U.S. surged 7.8% even as the total volume of imports into the world's largest economy shrank 20%.


COVID-19, which originated in Wuhan, China, has infected more than 23.9 million people worldwide and killed 820,000, with the U.S. faring worse than any other country. Shelter-in-place orders aimed at slowing the spread of the virus have forced employees around the world to work from home, when possible.

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Because the outbreak originated in China, production in the country, and elsewhere in North Asia, was able to resume sooner -- and capture market share despite facing tariffs imposed by President Trump during the trade war that led up to a partial agreement in January.
Tech demand could remain strong through the end of the year. A survey conducted in June by Singapore-based UBS analyst Alicia Chen found 44% of respondents plan to purchase a new PC in the next six months, up from 40% in February.
 

j17wang

Senior Member
Registered Member
It is ironic isn't it they want to throttle Chinese technology import but ending up buying more Chinese technical product.
If you read MSM sound like the death knell of Chinese export because lack of demand in the western countries and tariff but reality is something else
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China cashes in on America's coronavirus lockdown
China's tech shipments surged 37% in the three months through June
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!



Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
’s
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
is getting a boost from soaring demand for tech products that make it easier and more efficient for Americans to work from home during the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
pandemic, according to economists at one Wall Street bank.
Tech shipments from China soared 37% from a year earlier in the April-through-June quarter, contributing 2.4 percentage points to the country’s overall export growth of 2%, wrote William Deng and Tao Wang, Hong Kong-based economists at investment bank UBS.

“Export shipments of automatic data processing units and parts, which include computers, tablets, monitors and parts, have seen a significant upswing since April,” according to Deng and Wang, who said Korea and Taiwan are also seeing “significant acceleration.”
Purchases by the U.S. surged 7.8% even as the total volume of imports into the world's largest economy shrank 20%.


COVID-19, which originated in Wuhan, China, has infected more than 23.9 million people worldwide and killed 820,000, with the U.S. faring worse than any other country. Shelter-in-place orders aimed at slowing the spread of the virus have forced employees around the world to work from home, when possible.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Because the outbreak originated in China, production in the country, and elsewhere in North Asia, was able to resume sooner -- and capture market share despite facing tariffs imposed by President Trump during the trade war that led up to a partial agreement in January.
Tech demand could remain strong through the end of the year. A survey conducted in June by Singapore-based UBS analyst Alicia Chen found 44% of respondents plan to purchase a new PC in the next six months, up from 40% in February.

A word of caution here. All that has happened is that there has been a temporary push forward of the demand curve for work from home equipment. People have taken this time to upgrade monitors, laptops, random other stuff since there was not much other places to spend money during the pandemic. If we look into 2021, the majority of people in Europe and North America would have recently upgraded thier gadgets in 2020 so would be spending less money on consumer electronics in 2021. For that reason, I would expect export-heavy chinese enterprises to budget extremely conservatively in 2021 even if 2020 was good, and try to switch as much production as possible to domestic demand (i.e. virtual reality, robotics, drones, EVs, and less of cellphones, laptops, other export crap...)
 

horse

Major
Registered Member
A word of caution here.
Consumer confidence will not recover.

Consumer confidence in China will recover, maybe in 6 months to 12 months.

That is just a normal reaction. This pandemic was such a shock, people change, and start to save more, and be more cautious. But I do expect consumer confidence in China to recover by next year at the latest.

Consumer confidence may not recover in western societies.

The Great Depression, that generation who went through it in the west, never regained want we know today as consumer confidence.

:oops:
 

emblem21

Major
Registered Member
A word of caution here. All that has happened is that there has been a temporary push forward of the demand curve for work from home equipment. People have taken this time to upgrade monitors, laptops, random other stuff since there was not much other places to spend money during the pandemic. If we look into 2021, the majority of people in Europe and North America would have recently upgraded thier gadgets in 2020 so would be spending less money on consumer electronics in 2021. For that reason, I would expect export-heavy chinese enterprises to budget extremely conservatively in 2021 even if 2020 was good, and try to switch as much production as possible to domestic demand (i.e. virtual reality, robotics, drones, EVs, and less of cellphones, laptops, other export crap...)
Well China is planning for the long haul while the rest of the world isn't even bothering with it, especially the USA right now. Hence it won't be a surprise (as shown by the GDP growth just recently) if China continues to grow no matter how small this growth is while the rest of the world becomes more and more dependent on China for other goods (kinda like Walmart and Amazon with all the other small stores closing quickly). The US and Europe cannot take back manufacturing in this short time frame so they will bear most of the hurt and the USA can never begin there manufacturing base if they lack capital or anyone willing to work in a country that is very hateful to minorities. Also to note is that once people have upgraded there gadgets, there won't be much of an upgrade for a while, hence this will be a perfect time for China to ensure that there technology is more independent from the US so the US cannot mess with China as they are now.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member

SoupDumplings

Junior Member
Registered Member
Hi SoupDumplings,

The CEO is a known panda lover and have great influence inside the CCP.
Just because he likes China doesn't mean that he won't put profits first, even if it harms China in the process. Still, a good relationship with Ray Dalio can't be bad. And considering its massive size, I suspect that even Trump would think twice before moving against him. A good relationship with Blackrock could single-handedly prevent decoupling between China and the US. Blackrock has $7 trillion in assets, even more than the PBOC. Crazy.
 
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