Chinese Economics Thread

antiterror13

Brigadier
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How possible is for the us totally expel China from us dollar payment system/cut off China from swift or to seize $1 trillion of China us government debt as this article suggest as the ultimate sanction?

If the US could do that without harming herself, it would have been done ages ago ....... thats just simple.

The answer is .... the chance is almost zero!
 

emblem21

Major
Registered Member
Faith in The Coming Collapse of China is shaking
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I am impressed that all of these western media like to preach the chinese collapse, just like the three gorge dam collapse that these idiots from the USA and Taiwan love to quote but unless they have actually been there (
), then nothing they say is ever true. I honestly hope the collapse of the USA hits as hard as possible, if only to finally inject some true into the fox news ridden minds and considering that they spend so much energy into things like this instead of fixing there own problems, this downfall cannot come soon enough.
 

tamsen_ikard

Junior Member
Registered Member
If the US could do that without harming herself, it would have been done ages ago ....... thats just simple.

The answer is .... the chance is almost zero!

I think you underestimate the amount of pain US is willing to accept to keep China down. US and western order has never faced a non-western opponent that can match them in technology and GDP. Chinese influence around the world only starting appear and you have massive anti-China hysteria.

This hysteria is just beginning. Just imagine what will happen in 2030 when China is bigger than US economy and will certainly have much more influence in tech and business than today. Or imagine 2040-50 when China will double US GDP and be bigger than US EU combined. Yeah, they will absolutely lose their sanity. They have been dominant for so long that they have never experienced anything else. Their whole worldview is based on a superior western culture/system/race.

What happens when your whole worldview is based on a superiority complex? You start to think that your opponent is cheating or somehow betraying you. You would rather believe in a conspiracy than admit that you are somehow equal to them. You won't care about your own benefits cause you think you are somehow being cheated. You will do anything to stop the opponent. You will make it your moral mission to bring your cheating opponent to justice.

The western powers will use every available tool available to them to try to contain and destroy China. Which means they will sanction China completely. Try to cut China off. Anyone that talks about moderation will be vilified as sold out to Chinese money.


But China has one big advantage. It has a vast market. So, its likely that anti-China action from the west will come extremely slowly. US will always be the first. But countries that were former colonial powers also have a lot of superiority complex. So I expect France, UK and most of northern Europe to also try to sanction China as well.

The countries that were not colonial powers or lost their colonies early do not have the same claim to the current ruling class, they also have resentment. So, these countries will likely be less anti-China. So, most of eastern europe and many countries in southern europe like Greece will be less anti-China. There is a chance of a split in EU due to Pro-China anti-China tendencies.


China has a huge challenge ahead. Its going to face the entire Euro-Colonial hegemony of the last 300 years. They will not give up their cultural/tech hegemony without a fight. Could it lead to War? Maybe not fullscale war but a lot of proxy wars and Cuban missile crisis style confrontations. Only with conflict can you resolve questions about who gets to rule and who loses their position. So, China's rise will inevitably lead to conflict.

One advantage China has is that its is not just China that is rising. The rest of the world is also rising. The rest of the world is much bigger than 1 billion white/europeans who rule the world now. So, Turkey wants restore its glory. Iran wants its own piece of regional influence. Latin America will not remain under American thumb as they get richer. So, the western order will be forced fight everyone to keep them down. They might focus on China now, that focus again will shift to middle-east or another place. They will lose their dominant position due to constant fighting to keep it. China on the other hand is mainly focused on its own backyard. So, it is can apply its entire GDP and military power to capture a much smaller land. Its every action will have bigger focus and might which will lead it to victory.
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
I didn't know it's pantomime season already? So debts incurred by previous administration is to be the responsibility of the current administration. Even though the previous administration still exist and the USA recognises informally , and with a state visit to boot as recent as last week. (See Taiwan thread where health Secretary addressing Tsai as president Xi!) Lol.

If it's the case past deeds can be passed from one administration to another. Then shouldn't the British, Japanese and USA being paying compensation for all the wars, drug running, internment camps, exclusion clause. And also apologies and accept responsibility for their past actions?

Investors invest with the knowledge their investment has some risks attached to that. And the risks of defaults is high on the list. So take it on the chin like everyone else.

Shouldn't McSally and Blackburn be asking Tsai for the money borrowed by the nationalist who fled to Taiwan?


FB_IMG_1597417020134.jpg

Here's the article:

AUG. 202013

McSally, Blackburn Demand China Repay its $1.6 Trillion Defaulted Debt

U.S. SENATE – U.S. Senators Martha McSally (R-AZ) and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) today introduced a concurrent resolution calling for the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to make good on a sovereign debt of $1.6 trillion owed to 20,000 American families.

Between 1900 and 1940, the Republic of China issued millions of dollars in sovereign debt around the world, including in the United States. They defaulted on this debt in 1938, and in 1949, the Communist Party, led by Mao Zedong, took over China, forming the PRC. Under international law, the PRC as a successor government of Republic of China is responsible for repaying its debts.

However, China reneged on its financial obligations, and as a result, 20,000 families in over 46 states were never repaid. In 1987, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher successfully demanded China repay the bonds. This resolution calls on President Trump to do everything in his power to achieve resolution and repayment of the defaulted sovereign debt, currently valued at $1.6 trillion according the American Bondholders Foundation, of the PRC for 20,000 families in the United States.

“China has repeatedly failed to honor its obligations to America, taking American families’ money and jobs,” McSally said. “Well, the abuse ends here. We are holding China accountable for their debt and for unleashing the coronavirus on the world. We demand China pay back the $1.6 trillion it owes to American families.”

“Senator McSally and I introduced the Civil Justice for Victims of COVID Act to give Americans a pathway to sue the Chinese government for its role in the spread of the coronavirus,” Blackburn said. “However, this is not the first time China’s actions have had an outsized impact on the American people. Twenty thousand American families are still owed a collective $1.6 trillion from a debt on which China defaulted in the early 20th Century. What 2020 has made clear is that the status quo is not working when it comes to our relationship with China.”

The resolution can be found here.

Senator McSally is committed to holding China accountable.

On July 29, McSally introduced legislation that would require online retailers like Amazon to disclose the origin of products made in China.On July 22, McSally spoke on the Senate floor about China’s malevolent behavior.On July 21, McSally introduced two bills to protect American taxpayers and prevent the Chinese Communist Party from using American public transportation and military technology as a means to undermine America.On July 21, McSally cosponsored bipartisan legislation to help stop foreign governments, particularly China, from stealing American taxpayer-funded research and intellectual property developed at U.S. colleges and universities.On July 20, McSally introduced the Civil Justice for Victims of COVID Act to allow Americans to sue China in federal court for its role in causing the coronavirus pandemic.On June 18, McSally and Barrasso’s op-ed ran in the Washington Times stating: “China will stop at nothing for world dominance … From here on out, rare-earth minerals and other essential materials must be domestically sourced or supplied by our allies.”On May 14, McSally introduced the Securing America’s Vaccines for Emergencies (SAVE) Act to diversify the country’s medical supply chain and reduce U.S. dependence on China.On March 20, McSally called on America to stop outsourcing to China the manufacturing of items that are critical to our national security.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Epic games is Tencent too.

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Did not know Epic was part of Tencent. In that case this puts the development in a very different light, as this is clearly more significant for Apple.

Basically this is a warning shot across the bow of Apple, that Tencent owns a lot of companies, so if Trump bans American firms from doing business with Tencent, they will also be affected. And that Tencent is willing and able to use those other companies in a co-ordinated way to put pressure on Apple if the ban happens.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Chinese market turning inwards towards domestic items and away from imports. Very very good.
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China's Middle Class Is Staying Home. So Is Its Money

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- The Chinese used to be an adventurous bunch. Last year, 170 million of them traveled internationally, threatening to tip the nation into a current account deficit. Now, scarred by anti-Chinese sentiment abroad amid the pandemic, and suspicious of many things foreign, consumers are turning inward.

Consider a CLSA Ltd. survey of 1,600 shoppers, conducted between June 30 and July 7. Three-quarters of respondents hold university degrees, so the study offers a good window into middle-class spending habits.

Even if Beijing loosened up and allowed travel with, say, Europe, two-thirds of those surveyed said they planned to wait at least another four months before heading abroad. This is a drastic change from February when, even at the peak of China’s outbreak, only 18% were willing to postpone their arrangements this long.

Sentiment about education is similar. Before the pandemic, about a quarter of parents planned to send their kids abroad for schooling. Now, 73% have delayed their preparations, while 20% canceled them outright.

Granted, international travel and schooling are expensive, and the middle class may no longer feel as financially secure. Only half of respondents said their employers were back to at least 80% of pre-coronavirus operating levels.

But geopolitics are also at play. Until recently, Chinese students’ top destinations included the U.S., Australia and the U.K. Now, their families prefer smaller education markets such as Singapore, Japan and Germany. No doubt, Beijing only added fuel to the fire by urging its citizens not to visit Australia, citing racism against Asians.

Meanwhile, Beijing’s second wave outbreak coincided with state media reports that traces of the virus were found on chopping boards used for imported salmon. Even though experts later said the fish was unlikely to have carried the disease, consumers nonetheless started to feel that goods produced and sourced locally would be more reliable. The shorter the supply chain, the better, they reasoned.

This newfound look inward is spilling over to many corners of household spending, giving domestic brands an edge and making China even more protectionist than before.

For starters, let’s look at medical treatment. Just as some Indians have faith in celebrity yogi Baba Ramdev’s Ayurvedic-inspired coronil tablets to fight the virus, the Chinese are reaching back to ancient wisdom, too. In February, 31% surveyed said they would use Western medicine only; now, the figure is 27%. More than half prefer a combination of Western and traditional Chinese medicine. In June, the latest data available, overall sales in this sector rose 9.7% from a year earlier, compared with a retail sales slump of 1.8%.

Cosmetics — a real bright spot, with a 20% sales jump in June — is another example. Domestic brands such as Proya Cosmetics Co. are on fire, propelled by livestreaming e-commerce, as my colleague Nisha Gopalan wrote.

Just like everyone else, the Chinese are also spending a lot of time at home, underpinning a 9.8% rise in household appliance sales in June. But even here, brands that have gained the most awareness since the pandemic, according to the CLSA survey, are all Chinese: Zhejiang Supor Co., Midea Group Co., Joyoung Co. and Xiaomi Corp., which makes mobile phones as well as small home gadgets such as hot pot makers, air purifiers and electric toothbrushes.

Global supply-chain disruptions, which started two years ago with the U.S.-China trade spat, were already benefiting Chinese players: They could take advantage of the vacuum and grab market share at home. Now robust consumer demand, triggered as much by fear as patriotism, is doing the other half of the job.

This is good news for Chinese stocks — consumer staples and discretionary sectors tracked by the CSI 300 Index both rose over 40% this year. But it’s an even greater one for a president who’s into self-sufficiency. Consumers, on the other hand, are missing out. They’re becoming even more isolated from international brands than before.
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
I think you underestimate the amount of pain US is willing to accept to keep China down. US and western order has never faced a non-western opponent that can match them in technology and GDP. Chinese influence around the world only starting appear and you have massive anti-China hysteria.

You're far too optimistic with regards to the USA standing pain. If you think the citizens going hungry with high unemployment, etc it's going to be an easy ride. You obviously hasn't been following recent events in the USA.

I think you meant to say Trump and his irks can withstand pain (well Yes, it is not them that's suffering). However, with civil unrest and plunging ratings for re-election. I don't think USA can stand much. Which is why I got the feeling everything is on hold till after election.
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
Chinese market turning inwards towards domestic items and away from imports. Very very good.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
China's Middle Class Is Staying Home. So Is Its Money

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- The Chinese used to be an adventurous bunch. Last year, 170 million of them traveled internationally, threatening to tip the nation into a current account deficit. Now, scarred by anti-Chinese sentiment abroad amid the pandemic, and suspicious of many things foreign, consumers are turning inward.

Consider a CLSA Ltd. survey of 1,600 shoppers, conducted between June 30 and July 7. Three-quarters of respondents hold university degrees, so the study offers a good window into middle-class spending habits.

Even if Beijing loosened up and allowed travel with, say, Europe, two-thirds of those surveyed said they planned to wait at least another four months before heading abroad. This is a drastic change from February when, even at the peak of China’s outbreak, only 18% were willing to postpone their arrangements this long.

Sentiment about education is similar. Before the pandemic, about a quarter of parents planned to send their kids abroad for schooling. Now, 73% have delayed their preparations, while 20% canceled them outright.

Granted, international travel and schooling are expensive, and the middle class may no longer feel as financially secure. Only half of respondents said their employers were back to at least 80% of pre-coronavirus operating levels.

But geopolitics are also at play. Until recently, Chinese students’ top destinations included the U.S., Australia and the U.K. Now, their families prefer smaller education markets such as Singapore, Japan and Germany. No doubt, Beijing only added fuel to the fire by urging its citizens not to visit Australia, citing racism against Asians.

Meanwhile, Beijing’s second wave outbreak coincided with state media reports that traces of the virus were found on chopping boards used for imported salmon. Even though experts later said the fish was unlikely to have carried the disease, consumers nonetheless started to feel that goods produced and sourced locally would be more reliable. The shorter the supply chain, the better, they reasoned.

This newfound look inward is spilling over to many corners of household spending, giving domestic brands an edge and making China even more protectionist than before.

For starters, let’s look at medical treatment. Just as some Indians have faith in celebrity yogi Baba Ramdev’s Ayurvedic-inspired coronil tablets to fight the virus, the Chinese are reaching back to ancient wisdom, too. In February, 31% surveyed said they would use Western medicine only; now, the figure is 27%. More than half prefer a combination of Western and traditional Chinese medicine. In June, the latest data available, overall sales in this sector rose 9.7% from a year earlier, compared with a retail sales slump of 1.8%.

Cosmetics — a real bright spot, with a 20% sales jump in June — is another example. Domestic brands such as Proya Cosmetics Co. are on fire, propelled by livestreaming e-commerce, as my colleague Nisha Gopalan wrote.

Just like everyone else, the Chinese are also spending a lot of time at home, underpinning a 9.8% rise in household appliance sales in June. But even here, brands that have gained the most awareness since the pandemic, according to the CLSA survey, are all Chinese: Zhejiang Supor Co., Midea Group Co., Joyoung Co. and Xiaomi Corp., which makes mobile phones as well as small home gadgets such as hot pot makers, air purifiers and electric toothbrushes.

Global supply-chain disruptions, which started two years ago with the U.S.-China trade spat, were already benefiting Chinese players: They could take advantage of the vacuum and grab market share at home. Now robust consumer demand, triggered as much by fear as patriotism, is doing the other half of the job.

This is good news for Chinese stocks — consumer staples and discretionary sectors tracked by the CSI 300 Index both rose over 40% this year. But it’s an even greater one for a president who’s into self-sufficiency. Consumers, on the other hand, are missing out. They’re becoming even more isolated from international brands than before.

This is why Trump is my favorite US president :p.

But I hope the average Chinese consumer doesn't start white worshiping again after Trump is gone.

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Yeh, call the president.
 
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