Chinese Economics Thread

[Dante80]

The USA is like 3x larger than Japan in terms of population, GDP and R&D spending.
So of course Japan was going to struggle.

In comparison, China has 4x the population, and is working to becoming 3x-4x larger than the USA in terms of GDP and R&D.

That is irrelevant as far as those niche industries are concerned. You cannot produce a baby in 4,5 months by doubling the number of pregnant women. Money won't solve this. For example, there are certain niche industrial sectors where the US is impossible to beat the Germans in. While having a hugely larger economy and R&D potential/output.

In other words, there is no catching up in those industries without intellectual theft. The target is both far away and moving fast. Case in point, COMAC.

On the other hand,

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

that the playing field is a priori even. In said sectors China holds a pretty substantial advantage (take for example the electric car market). And as time passes on, China will also hold the bleeding edge in those sectors (like others do elsewhere).

 

[MrCrazyBoyRavi]

That is irrelevant as far as those niche industries are concerned. You cannot produce a baby in 4,5 months by doubling the number of pregnant women. Money won't solve this. For example, there are certain niche industrial sectors where the US is impossible to beat the Germans in. While having a hugely larger economy and R&D potential/output.

In other words, there is no catching up in those industries without intellectual theft. The target is both far away and moving fast. Case in point, COMAC.

On the other hand,

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

that the playing field is a priori even. In said sectors China holds a pretty substantial advantage (take for example the electric car market). And as time passes on, China will also hold the bleeding edge in those sectors (like others do elsewhere).

GDP doesn’t comprise of only high tech telecome goods, it also includes mundane ordinary goods manufactured. China’s GDP and exports is growing day by day. People are getting caught up so much on huwawei and few tech companies that they are forgetting China is growing and and closing the gap with west.

 

[Dante80]

GDP doesn’t comprise of only high tech telecome goods, it also includes mundane ordinary goods manufactured. China’s GDP and exports is growing day by day. People are getting caught up so much on huwawei and few tech companies that they are forgetting China is growing and and closing the gap with west.

Of course, and that is also completely irrelevant to those niche sectors. My argument was pretty specific.
From a general point of view, China is currently emerging as the Wolds' biggest economy, and probably will become the World's biggest influencer in a couple of decades too.

 

[Petrolicious88]

Only Trump and his cabinet wants decoupling. Neither U.S. nor Chinese businesses want it.

Right. But trump and China hawks are rushing before the election to create laws and legislations that will be hard to reverse even if Biden wins.

A permanent enmity between the two countries is likely here to stay. Many of the sanctions on Chinese companies will remain in place.

China has a long and arduous road ahead to achieve its tech ambitions.

 

[AndrewS]

In other words, there is no catching up in those industries without intellectual theft. The target is both far away and moving fast. Case in point, COMAC.

Your key point is that the incumbent technology companies are MOVING fast to stay ahead.

But what happens if Chinese companies can devote more resources, can sell to a larger market and deny foreign companies sales in China and elsewhere?

The incumbent technology companies no longer have the profits to invest in keeping ahead.

If we look at airplane engines, until very recently, AECC didn't even exist, and was spending nowhere near as much as PW, GE or RR on engine research and development.

Plus COMAC is not a good example. You can see the gap is narrowing and will continue narrowing with each successive airplane that they design.

 

[BMEWS]

"""The target is both far away and moving fast""

Intel hasnt moved anywhere in the last decade
Now they gave up
Apple is switching to ARM
The writing on wall

3nm is the limit to EUV, silicon... as Moore Law dies and hit quantum wall, economic wall...

Deminishing returns mean China will catch up quicker , the "speed of light" as cosmic limit, eventually the headstart of West will become irrelevant

And if you want to use the airplane analogy, we went from Wright Brothers flying bicycle to moon landing in roughly span of 60+ years... yet from the Boeing 737 debut in the 1960s to its MCAS fiasco issue that wont be solved until 2021 thats 60 years of backwards progress....

 

[styx]

tsmc is the arab oil fields of the current us economy.

 

[Gatekeeper]

Making cars is not the same as making aero engines and integrated circuits. Pretty much any country can make cars, as the chart shows. Even countries like Indonesia and Thailand make cars, although in low volume.

ONLY the US and the European Union have a monopoly on the best aero engines, however (Russia if you include military only). And for integrated circuits, key technologies are monopolized by the US only. These took decades to develop. You don't think other countries have tried? Even Japan can't do it. Even if you can do it, by the time you get there the US and EU will have surpassed you again. You are going after a moving target. It's not that easy.

Also during the era when China was catching up in cars, it had a favorable international environment where the West didn't scrutinize technology transfers too closely and freely entered into co-production agreements with Chinese carmakers like SAIC. That era is over.

I'm not saying China can't do it, but it's going to take a LOT of investment and frankly whatever help China can get from abroad.

You were saying? Yes cars are not same as aero engines. But by pointing out China's previous backwardness, and obvious challenges ahead. You've missed the point of my post. That is it tool China 70, yes 70 years with motor cars to become the world number 1. You, if you were alive then would've said the same thing about China catching up on motor cars.

No matter, carry on with your blinkered view while the rest of China and us adjust to the new reality.

Highlights from this article:

'China now has 19.9% as opposed to 18.3% of scientific paper.'

'The quality of Chinese research papers is approaching that of the U.S. as well. Of the top 10% most-cited papers in 2017, the U.S. generated 24.7%, while China was a close second with a 22% share.'

'China is home to about 1.87 million researchers, exceeding the 1.43 million U.S. researchers to take the global crown.'

China passes US as world’s top researcher, showing its R&D might
Rise fueled by heavy spending and growing number of researchers

Researchers at Tsinghua Unigroup's research center in Beijing. China spent $554 billion on research and development in 2018, putting it second behind the U.S. © Reuters
NORIAKI KOSHIKAWA, Nikkei staff writerAugust 8, 2020 03:19 JST

Rest of the article.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

 

[localizer]

If China can't replicate current tech then it will move to next gen.

 

[localizer]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1292187466754076672