Chinese Economics Thread

SPOOPYSKELETON

Junior Member
Registered Member
. t doesnt want to privatize its SOE, which AFAIK continue to constitute a large portion of the economy, including most of its large companies ( i remember reading in 1993 that the chinese SOE were white elephants. Many of them probably only exist to keep people employed. They surely arent as well managed as private companies) and reduce the weight of the state in the economy.

Ah yes, so you haven't updated your knowledge since 1993 and think that makes you an authority on the matter? State intervention is unambiguously good, in fact it is utterly impossible to conceive of an economy with no state intervention. The mantra that "the less the government is involved, the better" is American bullshit. Such thinking only serves the interests of International Finance, who have routinely looted and exploited weak governments while relying on their own to bail them out.

Your understanding of economics has no basis in reality, and is why world growth was stagnating even before the corona epidemic. The Chicago School has done more damage to humanity than any warmonger could dream of.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
China will need to rely more on its own market and less on exports. Thats what true world powers do. Look at the US and india. They have trade deficits but are still big economies. Export-dependent nations can never be world powers because they are dependent on the willingness of other nations to open their own markets to them. And china in many ways, cheats the system (closing its market and subsidizing a lot of companies) while it expects other nations to open their markets. And this has been going on for decades now.

The problem is that china wants to keep its ineficient and heavly-indebted state capitalism economy, prefering instead to keep growing by exports and debt. it doesnt want to privatize its SOE, which AFAIK continue to constitute a large portion of the economy, including most of its large companies ( i remember reading in 1993 that the chinese SOE were white elephants. Many of them probably only exist to keep people employed. They surely arent as well managed as private companies) and reduce the weight of the state in the economy.

This unwillingness to reform, coupled with the growing movement to close markets to china in the US, japan, india and even somewhat europe, will end bady for china, no matter what people in this forum may think otherwise.

The only thing true in your paragraph is the very first statement.

What true world powers do not do is becoming heavily indebted and inflate or devalue their currency in massive printing because that is time to time, and history has shown, it leads to the fall of the empire. Romans invented this when they started reducing the silver off their coins so they can create more coins for lesser cost to finance their failed military expeditions in Europe and against Parthia.

The majority of Chinese enterprise is private. Not all SOEs are inefficient, some are quite productive and efficient, such as CAC (Chengdu Air Company), CSSC (shipbuilder), COSCO (shipping line). In fact COSCO manages ports around their world, they have a specialized arm that does so. China's dominance in metals, not just rare earths, but also things like Lithium, Gallium, Gold, Silver, also comes from state enterprises. Much of China's airlines are state owned, so is the massive rail and Maglev network.

All over the US and the West, Japan and S. Korea, there are corporations, even if stockholder owned, that heavily rely on government contracts, subsidies, and other favors, such as the Fed buying their falling stocks and unpayable mortgages. These money losers, called zombie companies as they are called by investors, are everywhere, and they are propped up in the belief that they are too big to fail. No better than SOEs, maybe even worst. Add to that, how many companies have also run under because they cannot compete against state subsidized corporations from another country?
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
I like to compare China's government with that of a corporations management.

If we put it that way, then having the "state" manage things makes more sense than not in many situations.

That means, however, China can fall as easily as any corporation due to poor upper management.

1 man can destroy a corporation.
 

Tyler

Captain
Registered Member
Hope Bytedance gets a good amount for the sale of Tiktok.
Also, Tiktok would be affected by PC culture more and since it's now under control of an US company, Microsoft will have to face the Torrent of new lawsuits on its way from now on from concerned Congressmen and Parents over vulgar /inappropriate content and pressure from Advertisers for curating content better.

It's going to be like YouTube with comment sanitization, video monetization, Content creator guidelines and stuff.

Wish well for Microsoft. ;)
Microsoft has a history of messing up what they acquire.
 

Tyler

Captain
Registered Member
Chinese GDP is comprised of over 70% domestic consumption and rising. What am I looking for when I'm looking at USA and India? A propped up economy with massive debt, much of it foreign-held or an economy that was larger than China's decades ago but is now less than a quarter the size of China's? End badly, you say? When and how? It's meaningless without a timeline and definition. For example, all of the economies you mentioned are in recession today while China's economy has returned to growth. Now that's a sentence that carries meaning.
China's policy is now to boost local economy even more than ever before.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Microsoft has a history of messing up what they acquire.

I can think of a few other options who may try to make a bid.

Google. Its either a hit or miss. Complete binary outcome. It can become a big hit and dominate the world, or it can fail utterly and die in a whimper. Question of anti-trust.
Facebook. Please do not sell this company to Darth Zuckerberg. I would rather see it shut down. Also question of anti-trust.
Amazon. I may think it has a serious chance of succeeding best under Darth Bezos. But Trump is going to oppose it and this has anti-trust concerns.
Apple. Apple could be missing a huge opportunity here, but this should bring anti-trust concerns too.

Remember it is only days ago that the CEOs of FAANG aka the S&P-5 were grilled by the Congress for anti-trust.

So Microsoft it is, the least of the possible evils. I am sure Microsoft will give a good deal for it, plus they still have a massive stake in China so they would find someway to balance things out.
 

hullopilllw

Junior Member
Registered Member
Chinese GDP is comprised of over 70% domestic consumption and rising. What am I looking for when I'm looking at USA and India? A propped up economy with massive debt, much of it foreign-held or an economy that was larger than China's decades ago but is now less than a quarter the size of China's? End badly, you say? When and how? It's meaningless without a timeline and definition. For example, all of the economies you mentioned are in recession today while China's economy has returned to growth. Now that's a sentence that carries meaning.

Are you sure it is 70% for China ?

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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Are you sure it is 70% for China ?

atlas_Sy7I3SPj4.png
It is confusing. I have looked into this. I have found some sources that say China's private consumption is just under 40% of GDP:
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(page 27, though starts at page 25)

Then I have also found a source that says that China's consumption accounted for 76% of GDP in 2018:
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I then found an article that says that consumption was 76.2% of GDP growth in 2018:
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So I think actually, consumption contributed to over 75% of GDP growth but less than 40% of total GDP is the correct answer. So it means that consumption is slowly rising as a proportion of China's GDP.

Thank you for pointing that out.
 
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