Chinese Economics Thread


localizer

Senior Member
Registered Member
To be honest, this upsets me more than it should. China should dominate the Indian market no matter how paltry it is. What little India has, China should take. I hope that the Chinese government takes a hard-edged stance behind the scenes and lets Modi know that if his arbitrary restrictions on Chinese companies aren't lifted, further humiliation awaits him and his government.

It's the Chinese experience. The racism never stops no matter where we go or how rich and powerful we are.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Junior Member
Registered Member
It's the Chinese experience. The racism never stops no matter where we go or how rich and powerful we are.
I don't want to make too much of this, especially since that unlike the virulent racism of the West, India's spiteful envy is just irritating and pitiful. Even the West's racism is only a problem because the West is powerful; the real problem is that the West continues to be powerful. In the final calculation, Western firms opportunistically capitalizing on tensions between India and China doesn't even rise to the level of minor setback. India and its markets are just too small to matter, and India itself is going nowhere.

My irritation at this news is just a flaw of my personality - if I score ten goals and my opponent scores one, I'd still resent that my opponent managed to score even once.
 

localizer

Senior Member
Registered Member
I don't want to make too much of this, especially since that unlike the virulent racism of the West, India's spiteful envy is just irritating and pitiful. Even the West's racism is only a problem because the West is powerful; the real problem is that the West continues to be powerful. In the final calculation, Western firms opportunistically capitalizing on tensions between India and China doesn't even rise to the level of minor setback. India and its markets are just too small to matter, and India itself is going nowhere.

My irritation at this news is just a flaw of my personality - if I score ten goals and my opponent scores one, I'd still resent that my opponent managed to score even once.
They can't improve themselves so they have to hate and do propaganda to make others hate on China too. An Indian with a smartphone is no different than an American with a smartphone.

Right now they're cheering on the Tiktok ban and hoping Trump helps get MS a good deal.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Junior Member
Registered Member
Right now they're cheering on the Tiktok ban and hoping Trump helps get MS a good deal.
Part of why this has been unsatisfying is that China has no avenue for symmetric retaliation and measured escalation. It already ran all the American internet companies out of China long ago, and it's hardly like there are any Indian tech companies in China it can squeeze. The best thing you can do in a situation like this is cut your losses, which is what China is doing with TikTok. To do otherwise, to yell and beat your chest and make a scene to distract others - and yourself most of all - from your loss is very... Indian.

Which is why I also ask that my compatriots here keep this issue in perspective. Yes, China will have to just take an L on TikTok, sucks but that's just life sometimes. Panicking and ranting about how unfair this is isn't going to accomplish anything other than making you look weak and rattled.
 

localizer

Senior Member
Registered Member
Part of why this has been unsatisfying is that China has no avenue for symmetric retaliation and measured escalation. It already ran all the American internet companies out of China long ago, and it's hardly like there are any Indian tech companies in China it can squeeze. The best thing you can do in a situation like this is cut your losses, which is what China is doing with TikTok. To do otherwise, to yell and beat your chest and make a scene to distract others - and yourself most of all - from your loss is very... Indian.

Which is why I also ask that my compatriots here keep this issue in perspective. Yes, China will have to just take an L on TikTok, sucks but that's just life sometimes. Panicking and ranting about how unfair this is isn't going to accomplish anything other than making you look weak and rattled.

I made a post yesterday about the real loss in another thread:

China has $1.1T in US Treasuries and $3.4T in reserves.


With the 7% drop in US dollar index, China lost $300 billion from that alone in the past 3 months. And it's only going to get worse.

Some anticipate a 20% drop for this year, so China would lose $900 billion in real terms by end of the year. China bagholding for the US, getting screwed left n right.
 

horse

New Member
Registered Member
Some anticipate a 20% drop for this year, so China would lose $900 billion in real terms by end of the year. China bagholding for the US, getting screwed left n right.
I am not a banker, but those institutional investors play a different game available to them than us broke ass retail investors.

Those institutional investors can place bets on anything they want, because they get their on staff lawyers to design derivative contracts on anything they want.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

We do not know what anyone positions are in the market. But we can expect that they will try to cover their butts.

Remember when Lehman Brothers collapsed? What I remember was the initial catyalst for the credit system siezing up on Wall Street, was the bets on Lehman Brothers not failing, and when they when belly up, there were big bets that had to be paid, ie there were bets on Lehman Brothers failing or not failing.

Time to pay, and there was not enough money around, and no one was willing to lend.

That produced the QE and we have been living in QE happily ever after, unless your last name was George Floyd.

So no, we can safely assume that the People's Central Bank is an institional investors who hedge all their positions. They won't lose anything regardless of whatever antics we see in the news.

:)
 

localizer

Senior Member
Registered Member
I am not a banker, but those institutional investors play a different game available to them than us broke ass retail investors.

Those institutional investors can place bets on anything they want, because they get their on staff lawyers to design derivative contracts on anything they want.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

We do not know what anyone positions are in the market. But we can expect that they will try to cover their butts.

Remember when Lehman Brothers collapsed? What I remember was the initial catyalst for the credit system siezing up on Wall Street, was the bets on Lehman Brothers not failing, and when they when belly up, there were big bets that had to be paid, ie there were bets on Lehman Brothers failing or not failing.

Time to pay, and there was not enough money around, and no one was willing to lend.

That produced the QE and we have been living in QE happily ever after, unless your last name was George Floyd.

So no, we can safely assume that the People's Central Bank is an institional investors who hedge all their positions. They won't lose anything regardless of whatever antics we see in the news.

:)

$4.5T would be hard to hedge. Low risk USD denominated assets held by governments are all low yield, probably all less than 4% right now. The 16% cannot be covered unless its all put into US stocks and gold or something.

I suggest China remove capital flight restrictions and let the rich and foreign companies trade their RMB for dollars.
 

BMEWS

Junior Member
Registered Member
I made a post yesterday about the real loss in another thread:

China has $1.1T in US Treasuries and $3.4T in reserves.


With the 7% drop in US dollar index, China lost $300 billion from that alone in the past 3 months. And it's only going to get worse.

Some anticipate a 20% drop for this year, so China would lose $900 billion in real terms by end of the year. China bagholding for the US, getting screwed left n right.
dollar going to zero by year end
 

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