Chinese Economics Thread

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I think the deal is dead in all but name. China would have full justification to suspend all farm purchases from the US pending full resolution of the recent Beijing outbreak being linked to American food imports.

One of the few areas where China was making purchases was in agricultural products. Now that’s pretty much indefinitely suspended. Hence Navarro saying the deal is dead.

But Trump cannot have that, so it looks like we are in the amusing situation of China making zero purchases while America is lying to pretend the deal is still operating as normal. So basically Trump is winning so hard at the trade war that getting China to not officially announce the trade deal is dead is the only thing China needs to do to keep America tied in to its part of the commitments to the trade deal.

I am sure the irony isn’t being lost in Beijing that Trumps trade war, which was supposed to get China to make all sorts of concessions for America pretty much doing nothing is now completely flipped; China able to just do nothing and keep the trade deal in place while America gets nothing but is unable to do anything about it without giving away the game that the trade deal is dead.

I think imports of grains will continue, because they aren't chilled or frozen, and take 2weeks to cross the Pacific by ship.

2weeks at 20C should be more than sufficient for virus inactivation.

On the other hand, that doesn't apply to chilled/frozen goods like meat, seafood, fruits and vegetables.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
I think imports of grains will continue, because they aren't chilled or frozen, and take 2weeks to cross the Pacific by ship.

2weeks at 20C should be more than sufficient for virus inactivation.

On the other hand, that doesn't apply to chilled/frozen goods like meat, seafood, fruits and vegetables.

I personally don’t think China should be taking the risk on ‘should’ or ‘could’ given what is at risk.

Besides, somehow I don’t think China would be going out of its way to bend over backwards to help America with its trade deal. China will do exactly what it has agreed to and nothing more.

Right now there are very strong indications that Beijing’s current outbreak was caused by imported food from America. So all food imports from America is suspended while China conducts its investigation.

If America doesn’t like that, then it is up to them to prove to China’s satisfaction that its food shipments are safe and free of any possible COVID19 contamination.

That’s entirely reasonable, and America is desperate to not make a stink over this, because right now the western MSM can effectively censor this story, but if America kicks up a huge diplomatic/economic argument with China over the issue, there will be no keep this under wraps, and everyone else will instantly ban Americans food exports once this gets mainstream exposure in the news and the world general public gets wind of this possibility.

If America doesn’t like that, they it is up to them to prove to China’s satisfaction that its food shipments are safe and free of any possible COVID19 contamination.
 

Petrolicious88

Senior Member
Registered Member
Question for the experts:

what are the ways China is implementing to reform the structural problems within the economy. I.e huge local govt debt, housing bubble, demographic changes , etc...

What is China doing to achieve the goal of transition from a middle income to a high income economy. Is China at least moving in the right direction?
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
Question for the experts:

what are the ways China is implementing to reform the structural problems within the economy. I.e huge local govt debt, housing bubble, demographic changes , etc...

What is China doing to achieve the goal of transition from a middle income to a high income economy. Is China at least moving in the right direction?



Having a self sufficient state of the art jet engine and semiconductor supply chain will increase China's GDP significantly. Also, people need more economic freedom.

After that, the only thing dragging down China GDP per capita is the older generation (Such as those who didn't get to go to college due to Cultural Revolution).
 

Petrolicious88

Senior Member
Registered Member
Having a self sufficient state of the art jet engine and semiconductor supply chain will increase China's GDP significantly. Also, people need more economic freedom.

After that, the only thing dragging down China GDP per capita is the older generation (Such as those who didn't get to go to college due to Cultural Revolution).

Is China committed to implementing some of the structural reforms though. I see all the low hanging fruits already accomplished. The next stage of development will require some painful reforms. What do y’all think
 

KenC

Junior Member
Registered Member
Before talking about reform, one should know what is Chinese current model. Should China continue with its own model or follows or reforms to be closer to the Western model ? China model is one of mixed economy with private, collective, state-owned and foreign sectors.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
The "Western" model is why the US is a failure in handling coronavirus. Yeah if everyone followed the US model, it would look like the US was number one in handling outbreaks like they brag because everyone else would be failing also. That's the whole point. It's not about what's best. It's about the US being in control. If everyone follows the Western model, everyone has to look up to the West assuring their control over everything. Again look at EmDrives. Western scientists rejected it because it simply defied the laws of Newton. The Chinese aren't bound to Western schools of thought and tried it out and found there was something to it. If China never looked at it, Western scientists would not be looking at it now. Look at stem cell research. Because of Christians beliefs Western countries are not allowed to research it. China does to Western disdain. Yet you have arch-conservative Republican actor Chuck Norris where his wife had some botched surgery in the US who was rich enough to have the stem-cell surgery in China needed to treat the aftermath. Following the Western model means blindly obeying the West. How about everyone pick and chooses from others including the West what works for them which is what China is doing now? Nope! They demand everything be done like how the West does it. Why? It's not because it's the best. It's because they want to be in control.

That's the problem with China. If the US sees China failing at something, they'll let you know forever... When the US is a failure China doesn't tell that to the US. China is guilty like everyone else in the world not saying anything so Americans can continue to think they're always right and because of that, Americans think they get to dictate to everyone because they're always right hence why they think they can criticize China. I bring up the guy that abuses his wife or girlfriend analogy how the guy says his abuse is all about love and if he didn't love her he wouldn't be abusing her. He always tells her she can do nothing without him so that brainwashes her into staying in the abusive relationship because it's all really about keeping her under his control so she not dare try to leave him. China isn't the one describing Sino-US relations as a marriage talking about divorcing and decoupling... They're the ones saying China can't do anything without them. They say they don't need China yet still trying to get China to submit. For China's own good...? Or is because the US needs to control everything...? If China goes it's own way, that might give other countries ideas. That's why they can never leave China alone.
 
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