Chinese Economics Thread

plawolf

Lieutenant General
The same western media armchair generals types have been predicting the end of China since the PRC was founded.

So far we have only seen the impact of a full blown outbreak on China, but from everything that has been demonstrated so far, China has been almost uniquely capable of having the political will, economic might, technological capabilities and industrial power to stop such a dangerous virus in its tracks.

As disruptive and costly as that might have been, it will pale into insignificance compared to what a full blown, unchecked outbreak would do to economies and nations.

If you think a month of national quarantine is disruptive, what do you think it would be like to have significant parts of your workforce constantly off battling for their lives and up to 2% of you workforce simply dying very quickly?

China has expended monumental costs to buy itself and the rest of the world time to prepare, and the west has utterly squandered that precious time.

The western media is chiefly responsible with their petty nit picking disparaging coverage of China’s entire efforts from the start. The western MSM was so obsessed with trying to damage China with its handling of the virus that it had lured west into an unforgivable sense of complacency by creating the completely false impression that the outbreak was so bad in China only because of the utter incompetence and ‘secrecy’ of the Chinese government and ‘unclean’ nature of the Chinese people.

By creating the impression that the virus was a uniquely Chinese calamity, the western MSM also created the equally false impression that western nations would be categorically better able to handle it because of ‘free speech’ and ‘democracy’. As such, western nations and people’s didn’t really take the outbreak serious until it literally came knocking at their door. But now that it has arrived, it found the west utterly unprepared.

Poorer, 3rd world nations that do not have the resources and/or political will as China will be hit even harder.

After the dust settles, it may well prove that China was the least disrupted and damaged place on Earth of everywhere that has suffered a serious outbreak.

If anything, that would further cement China’s place as the world’s factory.

Also, the impact of the virus is likely to lead to a push towards more automation in China itself, which will also further improve Chinese resilience to similar disruptions in the future.
 

dratsabknihcllik

Junior Member
Registered Member
Terrible analysis. A virus' effects are short term. If you move your manufacturing out of China and into Vietnam, and the next epidemic is in Vietnam, now, what, move again? Where to? Maybe that place is next. Moving permanently out of a country because of an epidemic is like moving to a new neighborhood to avoid having your house struck by lightning again. It's true that China moving up the value chain and increasing labor costs will result in some low-level manufacturing leaving but there are many types of intermediate and high tech manufacturing that China retains and is expanding its advantages in. If Signorelli says that China will no longer be the world's leading manufacturer, then which country will it be? When does he expect data to reflect that country's manufacturing become larger than China's? Can he put his reputation on the line like Gordon Chang did twice incorrectly predicting the date of the CCP's collapse? The problem with free media is that people like him and Gordon Chang can write whatever they want, be proven wrong, and then without consequences, write more rubbish to start the cycle again. And some people will not pay attention to the author or his track record and simply take what's written at face value.

One point-
"They sourced elsewhere. Their China partners moved to Vietnam, Bangladesh and throughout southeast Asia."
As far as I know industries that moved to Vietnam from China are facing severe shortage of supplies from mainland China.

So they have an additional problem here. One of the pundits arging for distributed supply chains is that it increases geographic diversity. As far as I know geographic diversity is beneficial if we have redundant backup. Such applications are widely popular in software services. In manufacturing, companies don't generally maintain such 'backups'. So the redundancy factor is gone. Now if any of the counties of all the countries supply is sourced is affected because of a natural disaster/disease outbreak then it will hamper the process. A missing cog in the wheel can put the production to complete standstill.
 

dratsabknihcllik

Junior Member
Registered Member
There have been jokes told about Gordon Chang being in the Strategic FooYoo Agency for a long time, but it's only recently that I've truly internalized the truth behind the humour. It used to get to me how the Western "free press" was so monolithic and certain in its view that China would collapse until I understood that it's nothing more than religious belief. It's a deeply held article of faith with them that there's only one model for successful development - theirs. This isn't a belief born of rational analysis; it's a religious proclamation exactly like the Islamic proclamation that there is no god but Allah and Mohammed is his messenger. Nothing more.

China isn't hated for what it does, it's hated for what it is: a living refutation of their faith. Just that alone explains all of their hatred, their spite, their denial of the obvious truth of China's success, and their enmity. So of course Gordon Chang and his ilk can write their drivel without consequence, it's the China collapsist faithful's gospel. There's no expiration date on it either - after all, religious believers have held to patently ridiculous faiths generation after generation for millennia.

My years of studying and observing China have shown me a truth that I hold as deeply as they hold their delusions: China is going to become the wealthiest, most technologically advanced, and most militarily powerful state on Earth and there's nothing anyone can do to stop it. Nothing they do matters because nothing they can do can alter this fundamental trajectory. That is as immutable as gravity.
What if somehow China gets sucked in a major war?
 

dratsabknihcllik

Junior Member
Registered Member
The same western media armchair generals types have been predicting the end of China since the PRC was founded.

So far we have only seen the impact of a full blown outbreak on China, but from everything that has been demonstrated so far, China has been almost uniquely capable of having the political will, economic might, technological capabilities and industrial power to stop such a dangerous virus in its tracks.

As disruptive and costly as that might have been, it will pale into insignificance compared to what a full blown, unchecked outbreak would do to economies and nations.

If you think a month of national quarantine is disruptive, what do you think it would be like to have significant parts of your workforce constantly off battling for their lives and up to 2% of you workforce simply dying very quickly?

China has expended monumental costs to buy itself and the rest of the world time to prepare, and the west has utterly squandered that precious time.

The western media is chiefly responsible with their petty nit picking disparaging coverage of China’s entire efforts from the start. The western MSM was so obsessed with trying to damage China with its handling of the virus that it had lured west into an unforgivable sense of complacency by creating the completely false impression that the outbreak was so bad in China only because of the utter incompetence and ‘secrecy’ of the Chinese government and ‘unclean’ nature of the Chinese people.

By creating the impression that the virus was a uniquely Chinese calamity, the western MSM also created the equally false impression that western nations would be categorically better able to handle it because of ‘free speech’ and ‘democracy’. As such, western nations and people’s didn’t really take the outbreak serious until it literally came knocking at their door. But now that it has arrived, it found the west utterly unprepared.

Poorer, 3rd world nations that do not have the resources and/or political will as China will be hit even harder.

After the dust settles, it may well prove that China was the least disrupted and damaged place on Earth of everywhere that has suffered a serious outbreak.

If anything, that would further cement China’s place as the world’s factory.

Also, the impact of the virus is likely to lead to a push towards more automation in China itself, which will also further improve Chinese resilience to similar disruptions in the future.
I expected some countries to applaud for the sacrifice China made by almost locking out the entire country.
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
A surprising piece of "balanced" journalism from the SCMP about Huawei. It looks like game, set and match in Europe.

Any remorse from those countries running headlong to Trump's policy of containment?

Huawei’s European factory will improve supply chain efficiency, ease security concerns, analysts say
  • Once up and running, the facility will produce 1 billion euros’ worth of products annually and directly create 500 jobs
  • Huawei said it has secured 91 commercial 5G contracts worldwide, of which 47 are from European telecoms operators
The rest of the article for anyone interested.

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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
The same western media armchair generals types have been predicting the end of China since the PRC was founded.

So far we have only seen the impact of a full blown outbreak on China, but from everything that has been demonstrated so far, China has been almost uniquely capable of having the political will, economic might, technological capabilities and industrial power to stop such a dangerous virus in its tracks.

As disruptive and costly as that might have been, it will pale into insignificance compared to what a full blown, unchecked outbreak would do to economies and nations.

If you think a month of national quarantine is disruptive, what do you think it would be like to have significant parts of your workforce constantly off battling for their lives and up to 2% of you workforce simply dying very quickly?

China has expended monumental costs to buy itself and the rest of the world time to prepare, and the west has utterly squandered that precious time.

The western media is chiefly responsible with their petty nit picking disparaging coverage of China’s entire efforts from the start. The western MSM was so obsessed with trying to damage China with its handling of the virus that it had lured west into an unforgivable sense of complacency by creating the completely false impression that the outbreak was so bad in China only because of the utter incompetence and ‘secrecy’ of the Chinese government and ‘unclean’ nature of the Chinese people.

By creating the impression that the virus was a uniquely Chinese calamity, the western MSM also created the equally false impression that western nations would be categorically better able to handle it because of ‘free speech’ and ‘democracy’. As such, western nations and people’s didn’t really take the outbreak serious until it literally came knocking at their door. But now that it has arrived, it found the west utterly unprepared.

Poorer, 3rd world nations that do not have the resources and/or political will as China will be hit even harder.

After the dust settles, it may well prove that China was the least disrupted and damaged place on Earth of everywhere that has suffered a serious outbreak.

If anything, that would further cement China’s place as the world’s factory.

Also, the impact of the virus is likely to lead to a push towards more automation in China itself, which will also further improve Chinese resilience to similar disruptions in the future.

It also means Chinese companies have a head start on producing all sorts of machines and web applications which can be used to directly prevent infections spreading. Given the likelihood of further outbreaks overseas, these are going to be in demand.

And demonstrates the effectiveness of China's technology surveillance model, in preventing the spread of disease.

Coronavirus: China's tech fights back

Disinfecting robots, smart helmets, thermal camera-equipped drones and advanced facial recognition software are all being deployed in the fight against Covid-19 at the heart of the outbreak in China.

Read more
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Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
China still the factory of the world, when it comes to masks.

China's daily mask output exceeds 110 million units

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Here you can find one company in Zhejiang that manufactures face masking making machines.

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Sorry if this sounds like an inserted ad, but I have no financial interest on said company whatsover. I just want to make a simple point.

From the perspective of business, you know how easy it is to find factories and suppliers of things in China, compared to other countries? They make the products, they make the materials to make the products, they make the machines that make the products, and they have this massive online search engine like Alibaba that will help you find who makes the products, and who makes the materials, tools and machines to make those products.

So if I want to set up a face mask making company in Malaysia or Vietnam or in Mexico, guess where I would have to buy the machines.
 
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