Chinese Economics Thread

[Jura The idiot]

Friday at 8:22 AM

let me speculate an info about possible deal reached China, because:

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and
China-US trade deal news gives boost to mainland shares

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[Jura The idiot]

Mar 5, 2019

here comes the CNN story
China predicts weaker economic growth and warns of 'hard struggle' ahead
Updated 11:15 PM ET, Mon March 4, 2019

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while now
Economic Watch: China poised to meet economic targets for 2019
Xinhua| 2019-12-16 20:45:41

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China has the confidence to meet growth targets in 2019 and march on the course it has mapped out for long-term development.

Readings of major economic barometers released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Monday showed faster growth in industrial output, services and market sales in November, with value-added industrial output expanding 6.2 percent year on year, up from 4.7 percent registered in October.

The production index of China's service sector increased by 6.8 percent, while retail sales of consumer goods rose 8 percent last month, both higher than October levels.

China's economy in November continued with overall stability with signs of improvement, showing resilience and potential despite external uncertainties, NBS spokesman Fu Linghui told a press conference.

Online retail sales contributed to overall retail sales of consumer goods in November, said Fu, when the country's annual Singles' Day shopping bonanza saw e-commerce giants besting their sales records.

Consumption will continue to be buoyed by stable employment, said Fu.

The surveyed urban unemployment rate nationwide stood at 5.1 percent last month, unchanged from the rate in October.

A total of 12.79 million new urban jobs were created in the first 11 months, exceeding this year's target of creating over 11 million urban jobs, according to the bureau.

Industrial upgrading continued apace, as sectors like high-tech manufacturing and modern services help propel the shift from mere expansion to quality-oriented growth.

High-tech manufacturing saw an output increase of 8.9 percent last month, and investment in high-tech manufacturing and services surged 14.8 percent and 13.1 percent in the January-November period, respectively.

Monday's data also showed that the country's fixed-asset investment rose 5.2 percent and property investment was up 10.2 percent in the first 11 months.

China has solid grounds and conditions for meeting annual economic growth targets, said Fu, while calling for continued efforts to sustain stable economic development in the future.

Tasked with completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects and achieving the goals of the 13th Five-Year Plan in 2020, China faces rising downward economic pressure amid intertwined structural, institutional and cyclical problems, as well as a global economic slowdown.

To navigate the challenges and deliver on the promises it made, China has pledged to make ensuring stability a top priority, and uphold the policy framework of stable macro policies, flexible micro policies, and social policies that ensure basic needs are met, as underscored in the annual Central Economic Work Conference last week.

Sustained vigorous efforts should also be made in deepening supply-side structural reform, and ensuring reasonable growth and steady improvement of the economy, said the conference.

 

[Appix]

86 pages wow
China faces ‘huge challenge’ in living up to US trade promises as it ‘needs to buy US$300bn worth of goods in next two years’

• Beijing’s response reflects caution about possible missteps ahead while Americans give details of its pledges to boost imports
• Government adviser says Chinese appear less excited that the Americans about the ‘phase one’ agreement, which commit it to buying ‘lots more agricultural goods’

follow the link

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if interested

Yeah, I have no idea what Xi and his team are doing. They are really going to sign and implement an unequal treaty? Again? Lets wait and see. I already have started to call Xi a sell-out. Unbelievable, spits on all the revolutionaries of the past century that have freed us of foreign suppression and unequal treaties.

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[Franklin]

Yeah, I have no idea what Xi and his team are doing. They are really going to sign and implement an unequal treaty? Again? Lets wait and see. I already have started to call Xi a sell-out. Unbelievable, spits on all the revolutionaries of the past century that have freed us of foreign suppression and unequal treaties.

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You need to take those numbers with a pinch of salt. China only agreed to increase imports of agricultural goods and do more to adress IP issues and maybe a few other things for some tariff roll back. That is it for phase one. All of the hard numbers comes from the Americans. We will have to wait and see if those numbers are in the final agreement when its made public. And if China will sign off on it. I very much doubt it. If you want to know China's position then watch the news conference they held. Which no hard numbers were mentioned. SCMP is horrible in the sense that they take statements from American officials as 100% true something that the MSM in America don't even do.

 

[Dolcevita]

You need to take those numbers with a pinch of salt. China only agreed to increase imports of agricultural goods and do more to adress IP issues and maybe a few other things for some tariff roll back. That is it for phase one. All of the hard numbers comes from the Americans. We will have to wait and see if those numbers are in the final agreement when its made public. And if China will sign off on it. I very much doubt it. If you want to know China's position then watch the news conference they held. Which no hard numbers were mentioned. SCMP is horrible in the sense that they take statements from American officials as 100% true something that the MSM in America don't even do.

SCMP appeals to followers with certain mindset. We even have one here.

 

[SamuraiBlue]

China’s Companies Binged on Debt. Now They Can’t Pay the Bill.
Rising bond defaults raise new questions about whether Beijing can effectively address its huge debt problem.

HONG KONG — China’s companies racked up some towering bills as they expanded, and the world’s investors and lenders rushed to offer them even more money.
Now the bills are coming due, and a growing number of Chinese companies can’t pay up, in a sign that the world’s No. 2 economy is feeling the stress from its worst slowdown in nearly three decades.
Two high-profile companies — a giant government-run trading firm and a conglomerate backed by China’s most distinguished university — are the latest to join a long list of Chinese businesses that have run short of cash when it was time to pay back their debts. Chinese corporate borrowers have defaulted on nearly $20 billion in loans this year.
The amount is small compared with China’s overall economy, but the toll is rising. Chinese companies owe hundreds of billions of dollars in debt that is coming due over the next two years, including more than $200 billion owed to lenders and investors around the globe.

China now faces the difficult task of figuring out which of these companies it will allow to fail. The central government in Beijing keeps a tight grip on the Chinese financial system and often rescues companies to preserve jobs. But Beijing has shown a greater willingness to let companies go insolvent to teach them a lesson about borrowing too much, and many local governments now lack the funds to help their hometown champions.
“Once the government acknowledges the problem is large enough, then it has to start making careful decisions about where to intervene,” said Logan Wright, director of China research at Rhodium Group, a consulting firm.... to read further

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China Suffers Biggest Dollar Bond Default By State-Owned Company in Two Decades
A major Chinese commodities trader became the biggest dollar bond defaulter among the nation’s state-owned companies in two decades, in a moment of reckoning for Beijing as it struggles to contain credit risk in a weakening economy.

Tewoo Group Corp. announced results of its unprecedented debt restructuring, which saw a majority of its investors accepting heavy losses. This is expected to reshape investors’ perceptions about government-owned borrowers whose identity has for years offered a relatively strong sense of security.

A major Chinese commodities trader became the biggest dollar bond defaulter among the nation’s state-owned companies in two decades, in a moment of reckoning for Beijing as it struggles to contain credit risk in a weakening economy.

Tewoo Group Corp. announced results of its unprecedented debt restructuring, which saw a majority of its investors accepting heavy losses. This is expected to reshape investors’ perceptions about government-owned borrowers whose identity has for years offered a relatively strong sense of security...... to read further

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The Real Chinese Debt Threat Is Surfacing Again
Headlines on record bond defaults have been spooking foreign investors, but a more worrying test for the bond market still lies ahead

Chinese companies are defaulting on bonds

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. Should investors be worried? Yes—but not for the reasons you might think.

The current default crisis in China is

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, which is suffering from the trade war and, more importantly, a now three-year crackdown on shadow banking that has particularly punished private borrowers. Their default rate on bonds was nearly 4% in the first 11 months of 2019, up from 0.8% in 2017, according to Standard Chartered.

That has been matched by a steep fall in profits. On a 12-month moving average basis, nearly 18% of private industrial enterprises were loss-making in October—the highest number since at least 2002 and up from just 11% in 2017

This is terrible news for China’s entrepreneurs and Chinese growth—but it matters less for bond-market stability than it might appear. The reason: Private-sector borrowers account for a tiny percentage of corporate bond debt, and investors have long demanded high yields to compensate for default risk. Close to 90% of corporate bonds outstanding are from state-owned enterprises, whose default rate Standard Chartered pegged at just 0.04% for the first 11 months of the year...... to read further

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[AssassinsMace]

From the people who said China was going to collapse the first day of Trump's trade war...

 

[manqiangrexue]

The biggest tool for people looking to write scare articles on China's debt is to use large raw numbers without comparison or context. Say this debt is billions and trillions and anything can be made to look insanely out of control but none of that means anything without a comparison to other economies like those of the EU, USA, and, of course the King of Debt: Japan. Here is one such comparison to put things into perspective:

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[localizer]

US banks and corporations are no different from Chinese state owned enterprises, both get bailed out when necessary

 

[antiterror13]

The smartest thing I read on internet today.

agreed