Chinese Economics Thread


I wouldn't call it a fortune. Given Americans' prejudices, the ones most likely shopping on Single's Day would be Asians living in the US and they're only around ten to twelve million in the US population. And then how many of them are shopping on Single's Day? Trump is not thinking that. He either believes the US controls world trade and has that power or he thinks Americans are Single's Day primary customers because that's what Americans in general think that it's the US that only buys things in the world not anyone else.
Even if they were physically in the US, they would still have had to use Chinese payment systems.


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Oct 26, 2019
and here's an update:
China remains silent as Trump repeats threat to hike tariffs if trade war deal not reached soon
  • Chinese officials and state media have been silent on threats from US president to raise tariffs on Chinese goods if ‘phase one’ trade deal not settled soon
  • Senior White House officials still optimistic a deal can be reached to end 17-month tariff war

follow the link
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if interested
China has made it crystal clear to the whole world. No deal if Trump doesn't roll back all the tariffs he imposed in the past 18 months.

If Trump does roll back all the tariffs to please China to sign a new trade deal, China is likely to say, "Wait for a minute. You guy now may not be able to win a re-election after you flip-flop so many things around, why shouldn't we just wait until your re-election is over?" Or,China may say, "Hi, you guy has no credibility at all, how do I know you can keep your words after we have signed a trade deal?"

China has more excuses to evade a trade deal with the US.

Anyway, China is not interested in signing a trade deal with the US unless the current dollar system is dead. After the dollar system is dead, there is no need for a trade deal with the US at all.

"Starting a war is easy, but finishing it is difficult." Trump now knows what this really means.


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China doesn't care what tariffs Trump may impose. And his words of threat don't work. Trump now has to go back to the square one, or will face more humiliations, much bigger ones than what he has got from NK's Rocket Boy, from the Turban-men of Iran, or from the unyielding man of Venezuelan.

China stands firm on demand US lifts tariffs to reach trade war deal
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  • Ministry of Commerce in Beijing insists that removing the levies is an ‘important condition’ for reaching agreement
  • US President Donald Trump warned earlier this week that he would make ‘substantial’ tariff increases if the two sides cannot resolve their dispute
Published: 8:30pm, 14 Nov, 2019


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This is amazing, the number of patents applied world wide from 1980 to now.

Patents are a good indicator of future growth potentials, which is why Trump is trying to curtail China's growth. A little late me think!

China was nowhere until in the noughties it started to register, and now it leads the world by a country mile!


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"the stellar growth" in "non-tax revenue" inside
Economic Watch: China has its fiscal cake and eats it too
Xinhua| 2019-11-21 11:30:33
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China's fiscal wellbeing in the first 10 months of this year signals that the country has struck a fine balance between its extensive growth-spurring tax and fee cuts and unslackened spending in key areas.

China's fiscal revenue increased 3.8 percent year on year to around 16.77 trillion yuan (about 2.39 trillion U.S. dollars) in the first 10 months of 2019. The growth rate was down 3.6 percentage points year on year, according to data released Monday by the Ministry of Finance (MOF).

Weaker revenue growth is largely due to the country's largest tax and fee cut of recent years, which is expected to reduce the tax burdens and social insurance contributions of enterprises by nearly 2 trillion yuan this year, a figure almost equivalent to the country's total fiscal revenues in 2003.

Given the complex economic situation, cutting taxes and fees' policies have played a full role in countercyclical adjustments, said Cai Zili, an official with the State Taxation Administration.

"The policies benefit a vast number of taxpayers and fee payers in more direct and effective ways, stabilizing economic development expectations," Cai said.

A survey conducted by tax authorities showed that 92.2 percent of taxpayers believe that cutting taxes and fees has a positive impact on the production and operation of enterprises, which boosts market confidence.

In the first nine months of 2019, enterprises and individuals saved nearly 1.8 trillion yuan thanks to the fiscal incentives, which meant a tradeoff in tax revenue. By the end of September, the national tax revenue, excluding export tax rebates, totaled 11.2 trillion yuan, with a growth rate plunging 12.9 percentage points from the same period last year, Cai said.

In spite of the steep tax and fee cuts, China's fiscal spending expanded 8.7 percent year on year to around 19.06 trillion yuan in the January-October period.

During the period, spending on education and science and technology rose by 9.2 percent and 10.9 percent, respectively. Government expenditures in other key sectors such as employment, health, environmental protection and communities also have continued rapid growth.

Fiscal authorities at all levels have taken the initiative to tap the potential of increasing revenue, so as to maintain a relatively high fiscal expenditure to support the implementation of the country's major strategies, reforms and policy measures, a MOF official said.

Data from the ministry pointed to a marked growth in non-tax revenue. In the period, China's non-tax revenue gained 558 billion yuan to 2.6 trillion yuan, up 27.1 percent year on year.

The MOF official attributed the stellar growth to collecting more profits from state-owned financial institutions and enterprises as well as better management of state-owned resources and assets.

Other efforts to offset the impact of tax and fee cuts on revenue include expanding financial sources, marked reduction in regular expenditures and strengthened curbs in budget implementation.

"We will keep doing a good job in budget management, so as to ensure steady fiscal revenue and expenditure," the MOF official said.


China is going to win because the US is a saturated market. China has plenty of room to grow and there's a lot of new wealth to be created. US corporations want to act like they're innocent when their products outsourced to China are made with the cheapest materials. First they want to make as much money they can hence why they use the cheapest materials but also they need repeat customers who have to buy another one when it breaks. That becomes important when you have a saturated market. Having a long lasting product goes against their profit seeking interests.

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On Fareed Zakaria's show Sunday morning Ian Bremmer was one of the pundits and he said the world is headed for a bi-polar technological world where there's going to be a US standard and a Chinese one. China is going to win that one too. One of the other pundits mentioned the world is going to have to choose between technology that is open to one that is closed. I'm sure that pundit was saying that China was going to have the closed one. No it's the US that is going to be closed. It's the US that is forcing a bi-polar world on technology because they're the ones putting restrictions so naturally there's going to be alternatives. It's like when Obama claimed China's AIIB was more restrictive and discouraged countries from engaging with it to avoid debt traps. If AIIB was more restrictive, why would countries bother when the US is the better alternative. Wouldn't the automatic preferred choice be the US yet they're alarmed over AIIB. They choose AIIB because they get better terms than what the US can offer. The only way they would take a bad deal from China is if China were putting a gun to their head and forcing them to take it. Do we hear anything of the sort happening which would be a criminal act? No. The fact is the US is the bad deal and they want to scare people and countries into taking their bad deal that gives them the control they accuse China of wanting. Not allowing them to monopolize the world is a victory for China.
Glob. Times ("Official data on Wednesday showed that China's industrial companies above a designated scale saw profits drop 2.9 percent year-on-year from January to October." inside China's industrial profit drops 2.9% y-o-y from Jan to Oct, within expectations: expert
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and the SCMP ("Profits at China’s industrial firms plummeted 9.9 per cent in October from a year earlier, marking the steepest fall since 2011, data released on Wednesday showed." inside
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agree (about this particular figure I mean)
Chinese factory activity and orders boost due to new orders from Africa. Services sector expanding fast. OBOR paying off with OBOR countries accounting for well over double the value of US trade and growing at 9.5%.

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China’s factory activity unexpectedly returns to growth in November
PMI 50.2, new orders 51.3, factory output 52.6, non-manufacturing PMI 54.4

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China small manufacturers’ rising exports to Africa help offset plunging sales to US amid trade war
29 Nov, 2019
Growing optimism is spreading among some small Chinese manufacturers in sectors ranging from car parts to textiles, as a spike in exports to countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative is starting to offset a portion of lost demand from the United States due to the trade war.

Exporters say they have seen a sharp uptick in demand from nations involved in Beijing’s
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, which aims to link Asia, Europe and Africa with a network of ports, motorways and railways. “Take the textile industry as an example, many export-oriented factories in Zhejiang that I know have doubled or even tripled their orders to the African market this year,” said Steve Xie, a textile exporter from the Chinese manufacturing hub, whose own business has seen a 40 per cent increase in orders.

“Every textile factory in Haining and Yiwu city is talking because there have been a particularly large number of African buyers placing orders this year. The increase in orders from Nigeria and Ethiopia is huge.”

“We were once very worried about the impact of the US trade war on our exports,” the businessman said. “Now, although orders on the whole cannot be said to be completely balanced [with pre-trade war levels], the belt and road market, including the African market, can make up … up to about 70 per cent.”

The total value of imports and exports between China and the 61 countries involved in the
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was 6.65 trillion yuan (US$945 billion) in the first 10 months of this year, up 9.5 per cent, official data from China’s statistics agency showed. The figure accounted for 29 per cent of the value of China’s total foreign trade.

China-US trade was worth 2.75 trillion yuan (US$390.9 billion) over the same period, down 10.3 per cent, accounting for about 12 per cent of China’s total trade value.