Chinese Economics Thread


Just4Fun

Junior Member
Registered Member
A worldwide recession is coming due to Trump's trade wars, so what is the point for Western economists to say China's exports increase "will likely be transient"? In a worldwide recession, everyone's exports will go down. This is common sense.

More importantly, Trump's goal is to stop China's rise through his tariff war. So far so good for china. Look forward, to win the trade war, the US must have either the ability to overthrow China's government, or the ability to force all Belt and Road countries stop trading with China. The US has neither. So, the US can never win its trade war against China.


Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China Exports Stage Surprising Turnaround in the Face of U.S. Trade Battle
Chinese data show exports rose 3.3% last month, but economists say the reversal will likely be transient
 
USA trade deficit increasing, means the world (and China) getting more addicted to the USA money.

More and more Chinese businessman /politician become interested to push the cart of the USA foreign politics , due to the increasing holding of dollar dominated assets.

And as an add-on, the general employment of China become more dependent of the USA consumers.

Why is it good for China ?

It is good for the Capitol, for the USA businesses, but bad for the USA electorate .
These might only be true if the trade deficit expanded because US imports were increased, however, that is not the case. The trade deficit increased because China was much more successful at decreasing its reliance on American goods and services than vice versa. So this trade deficit is actually widening amid a backdrop of a decrease in (small) American imports from China leading to diminishing American consumer influence on the Chinese economy. It really shows that America is having a much harder time with the separation and that "China needs the US more than the US needs China" (a notion which serves as the backbone and main path to an American victory to this US-launched trade war) is something that the GOP got ass backwards.

Given all this, though, the political climate in China makes it so that no (or very few, only the most morally corrupt) Chinese can be interested in pushing American political interests even for some monetary benefit because the Chinese see this as an existential attack, that the US wants nothing but ill for China and this level of malignancy far outstrips business and money in most people's minds. They realize that pushing American interests in China for quick profit is tantamount to taking hard drugs for a momentary high.

For your arguments, there is also the flip-side to consider. If the US succeeded in shrinking the trade deficit with China, would that be better for China? If it turned into a Chinese deficit, would that benefit China because US consumers are now "addicted to Chinese money" and "more reliant on Chinese consumers?" Is North Korea the grand champion of trade wars because it has never had any reliance on US consumers? Given these questions and their likely answers, I think it's clear that China's current situation represents the best side of the coin.
 
Last edited:

Hendrik_2000

Brigadier
Exactly I couldn't say better you put the word in my mouth Plus Chinese economy is now primarily driven by internal consumption export make less and less larger part of GDP
China's enormous market of nearly 1.4 billion people is unrivaled by any country, and the tremendous spending power means consumption has been the premier driving force for economic growth for five consecutive years. Check out this video and have a look at Why China can further promote consumption upgrading.
 

Anlsvrthng

Senior Member
Registered Member
These might only be true if the trade deficit expanded because US imports were increased, however, that is not the case. The trade deficit increased because China was much more successful at decreasing its reliance on American goods and services than vice versa.
And the Capitol/Wall street was more successful to sell the USA financial assets to China.
 
Exactly I couldn't say better you put the word in my mouth Plus Chinese economy is now primarily driven by internal consumption export make less and less larger part of GDP
China's enormous market of nearly 1.4 billion people is unrivaled by any country, and the tremendous spending power means consumption has been the premier driving force for economic growth for five consecutive years. Check out this video and have a look at Why China can further promote consumption upgrading.
Honestly this is very classically an old lion vs young lion fight. The US is a very mature economy and its main (or only) advantage is the tools it has built up over the decades so it sees the main path to victory as leveraging all its tools to hurt others and prevent them from overtaking it. China is a young economy and its main advantage is its natural disposition to grow (not that that type of growth is inherent in any other young economy in the world). China's not nearly as active in this trade war as the US because there are so many positive things going on in China, bustling GDP growth, rocketing consumer demand, unstoppable technological momentum, etc... that it doesn't have time to waste with this American negativity. All of America's moves in the trade war have been aimed at hurting the Chinese with the damage on the American economy seen as a side-effect of the drug. China's moves, on the other hand, have mostly been focused on slipping past obstacles to continue its own growth. Its reactions in the trade war are a small part, taking the low-hanging fruit by damaging US agriculture while it can successfully replace them with other suppliers but in large, making adjustments to keep its own growth on track. And these adjustments are often regardless of whether they would make Trump happy or upset; China does it because China benefits, not to upset or appease rivals. That is the main difference in strategy. The old lion wants to be aggressive and do what it can now, even if it gets hurt, as the power dynamic is increasingly unfavorable to it, while the young lion just wants to focus on itself and grow into a bigger, stronger lion.
 
And the Capitol/Wall street was more successful to sell the USA financial assets to China.
I don't know what you're talking about. Maybe you should cite what you mean. From what I see, China is investing in gold and moving away from US treasuries. Chinese investment in US market has declined by 90% and in American real estate by 56% (title says 36%; that is all foreign purchase). That's the closest relevance I can interpret from your sentence.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 
Last edited:

Just4Fun

Junior Member
Registered Member
USA trade deficit increasing, means the world (and China) getting more addicted to the USA money.

More and more Chinese businessman /politician become interested to push the cart of the USA foreign politics , due to the increasing holding of dollar dominated assets.

And as an add-on, the general employment of China become more dependent of the USA consumers.

Why is it good for China ?

It is good for the Capitol, for the USA businesses, but bad for the USA electorate .
USA trade deficit increasing, means the world (and China) getting more addicted to the USA money.
This assertion is absurd. The US trade deficit increase has nothing to do with world's love or hate to the US dollar. Contrary to your statement, de-dollarization has gained traction in recent years. Many trades in the world are now conducted in the currencies other than the dollar, and they are never reported to a third party.

More and more Chinese businessman /politician become interested to push the cart of the USA foreign politics , due to the increasing holding of dollar dominated assets.
Another absurd assertion. China's dollar-dominated assets holding is actually decreasing in comparison with China's total foreign assets holding increase. Just remember Chins is in fact the largest economy in the world in real economic output, and it is in the process to accumulate national wealth at an unbelievably high speed. The total amount of China's foreign assets holding is HUGE. Do you know, for instance, China is a significant share-holder of Saudi's largest state-owned oil producer Aramco?

And as an add-on, the general employment of China become more dependent of the USA consumers.
The absurdest assertion so far. The Chinese economy is driven by the consumption inside China.

Why is it good for China ?
US trade deficit can never be cured, and it is not China's fault, or EU's fault, or anyone else's fault, but American's own fault. China is just following WTO's rules to trade with the US. So, there is noting to be good or bad to trade with the US.

US trade deficit is the fault of the dollar as the world trade currency. It is the fault that a small, an increasingly marginalizing US economy pretenses to be the most powerful economy in the world to police an increasingly expanding world economy. And it is the mis-governance of US politicians.

If the US really wants to see its trade deficit gone, it should agree to drop the dollar's weight to the same level as other currencies in IMF's Special Drawing Rights. If it did it today, the US trade deficit would be gone tomorrow. No one is interested in selling American his goods for valueless greenbacks, if the IMF does not force central banks in the world to keep the dollar as the major foreign reserve.
 
LOL good to see the China team is back, Hendrik2k, ManQ... recently there were no posts here
***
now I read
Economic Watch: China's foreign trade expands steadily amid mounting challenges
Xinhua| 2019-08-08 17:38:32
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China's foreign trade maintained steady expansion in the first seven months of this year amid mounting domestic and external challenges.

China's trade of goods rose 4.2 percent year on year in the January-July period to 17.41 trillion yuan (about 2.49 trillion U.S. dollars), data from the General Administration of Customs (GAC) showed Thursday.

Exports increased 6.7 percent year on year to 9.48 trillion yuan during the period, while imports grew 1.3 percent to 7.93 trillion yuan. China saw its trade surplus widen by 47.4 percent year on year to 1.55 trillion yuan during the same period.

In July alone, exports expanded 10.3 percent from a year ago to 1.53 trillion yuan, while imports went up 0.4 percent to 1.21 trillion yuan, leading to a 310.26-billion-yuan surplus, widening by 79 percent.

The steady trade growth came as the Chinese economy maintained strong resilience and sound fundamentals and at a time when internal and external risks and challenges were increasing, said Li Kuiwen, director of the GAC's statistics and analysis department

Meanwhile, China's trade mix continued to optimize as general trade with the long industrial chain and high value-added reported a higher proportion in the total trade since the beginning of this year, Li added.

General trade grew 5.7 percent year on year and accounted for 59.8 percent of the total trade in the January-July, 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period of last year.

The European Union remained China's largest trading partner in the period, with bilateral trade volume up 10.8 percent from one year earlier to 2.72 trillion yuan, followed by the ASEAN, up 11.3 percent to 2.35 trillion yuan, and the United States, down 8.1 percent to 2.1 trillion yuan.

China's trade with Belt and Road countries totaled 5.03 trillion yuan, up 10.2 percent year on year, six percentage points higher than the overall pace, said the GAC, adding that the amount accounted for 28.9 percent of China's total trade volume.

China's private businesses reported faster trade growth in the first seven months, with the trade volume increasing 11.8 percent to 7.31 trillion yuan. The amount accounted for 42 percent of the total trade volume in the period, up 2.9 percentage points year on year.

Thursday's data also showed that exports of mechanical and electrical products, as well as labor-intensive products such as textile and furniture, have all maintained growth in the period.

In addition, imports of crude oil and natural gas saw an increase, while iron ore and soybean imports dropped.
 
now
Diverse trade helps China weather trade war
Source:Global Times Published: 2019/8/8 22:40:19
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

According to the General Administration of Customs of China on Thursday, China's US dollar-denominated exports in July rose 3.3 percent year-on-year, beating expectations. Imports fell by 5.6 percent; the fall is also lower than expected. China's overall trade surplus in July was $45.06 billion, expanding by 63.9 percent from a year ago.

These numbers are widely believed to show that although the trade war is having a negative effect on China's foreign trade, the resilience of China's trade is far beyond people's expectations. Chinese export enterprises are making swift adjustment, and have made progress in minimizing the effects of US tariffs.

In the first seven months of 2019, China's trade in major markets, including the EU,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
and Japan, has increased. China's trade growth rate in countries along the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Initiative is higher than the overall level. The trade of private enterprises has grown rapidly, with electromechanical and labor-intensive products all maintaining growth. The Chinese economy is now more capable of shunning the impact of a US-launched trade war.

China does not want a long-term trade war. But if this is unavoidable, the Chinese economy can open a new path and explore room for maneuvering.

China's foreign trade will remain difficult in the second half of 2019 amid the potentially worsening China-US trade war and the global economic downturn. But previous experiences have shown that the Chinese economy is among those with the strongest resilience. Some in the US have been eager to knock China down. They will be increasingly disappointed in the global economic context.

China has learned new capabilities in every field where the US strong-armed it. China has not experienced economic shocks which the US had anticipated. This is the great society's unique natural endowment. China has mastered complete industrial capabilities and opened up numerous channels to connect to the outside world.

There is an obvious distinction between China and the US: China, practical and realistic, has prepared for the worst; but the US has kept making unrealistic promises and lying to the public. The US is taking a wrong path and placing itself in a dilemma.

Many of the US lies are intended to bolster US stock markets. The exuberance of the US economy is partly supported by bubbles, hot money and financial leverage. US investors will pay the price sooner or later.

The China-US trade war will be a protracted one and Chinese society is firm about it. The US trade war won't weaken China, but will promote China's all-round rejuvenation.

Economic data may be mixed, but China is getting stronger, a trend which the world clearly perceives. The Chinese economy's resilience comes from the country's huge potential and strong ability to tap this potential. There is no outside force that can disrupt the process as long as China doesn't stop by itself. Some people in Washington refuse to accept this trend, but time will teach them.
 
an interesting transshipment point inside
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
China’s US trade slumps again, but exports rise due to higher demand from Asian neighbours

  • China’s unexpected rise in exports in July was driven by trade with the likes of Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea to offset drop in sales to the United States
  • US-China trade is tipped to continue to fall, with yuan devaluation unlikely to offset tariff effects, analysts said
 

Top