Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
Central banks can’t talk a about bad news (*cough Fed) when the whole economy and fiat system is based on perception of how well things are going.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Well contrary to the narrative that is peddled in the west IMF does not think so
China not a trade villain, IMF says
By
Published: July 17, 2019 11:59 a.m. ET
Asian giant’s economy is in balance with rest of the world
Bloomberg News/Landov
IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath
China is not the villain in the global trading system that the Trump administration likes to portray it as, the International Monetary Fund said,
After years when China ran a large current account surplus based on export-led growth, the IMF said that China’s current account deficit, the widest measure of China’s trade balance, its current account, was “broadly in line with fundamentals” in 2018.
The country’s trade picture was helped by a massive increase in outbound tourism, that widened its deficit in services,
Who are the country’s with the largest trade surpluses?
Germany and the Netherlands top the list, as South Korea and Singapore, the IMF said.
But that doesn’t mean these countries should be the target of any aggressive bilateral trade campaign by the Trump administration.
Indeed, Gina Gopinath, the IMF’s new chief economist, said that aggressive bilateral trade negotiations favored by the Trump administration have had no discernible impact on global imbalances and have just caused harm.
The U.S. trade tariffs have led to increased prices for consumers, an erosion of business confidence and a disruption of trade patterns.
Gopinath said trade balances “reflect macro-policies that affect macro savings and investments,” and these are the policies that need reform.
For instance, in the euro-area, one policy that might bring better trade balance would be higher wage growth, the IMF report said.
And the U.S. and UK should find “growth-friendly” ways to lower their budget deficits, the report said.
Gopinath said the IMF welcomed the trade truce reached between the U.S. and China at the G-20 meeting in June, as any intensification of the bilateral trade dispute could have caused significant damage to the global economy.
If all the U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, in place or threatened, had been enacted, it would have reduced the level of global GDP in 2020 by 0.5%, Gopinath said.
“So this is a significant cost to the global economy at a time when global trade is already very weak and investment is weak in the world,” Gopinath said.
The IMF is set to release its latest assessment on the health of the global economy next week.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been citing the weaker global economic outlook as one reason many on the central bank feel a need to cut interest-rates. Morgan Stanley said this reflects the growing importance of the overseas economy on U.S. GDP.
Read:
U.S. stocks were lower in morning trading on Wednesday on concerns that the trade war between China and the U.S. might heat up. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down about 60 points to 27,276.
China not a trade villain, IMF says
By
Published: July 17, 2019 11:59 a.m. ET
Asian giant’s economy is in balance with rest of the world
Bloomberg News/Landov
IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath
China is not the villain in the global trading system that the Trump administration likes to portray it as, the International Monetary Fund said,
After years when China ran a large current account surplus based on export-led growth, the IMF said that China’s current account deficit, the widest measure of China’s trade balance, its current account, was “broadly in line with fundamentals” in 2018.
The country’s trade picture was helped by a massive increase in outbound tourism, that widened its deficit in services,
Who are the country’s with the largest trade surpluses?
Germany and the Netherlands top the list, as South Korea and Singapore, the IMF said.
But that doesn’t mean these countries should be the target of any aggressive bilateral trade campaign by the Trump administration.
Indeed, Gina Gopinath, the IMF’s new chief economist, said that aggressive bilateral trade negotiations favored by the Trump administration have had no discernible impact on global imbalances and have just caused harm.
The U.S. trade tariffs have led to increased prices for consumers, an erosion of business confidence and a disruption of trade patterns.
Gopinath said trade balances “reflect macro-policies that affect macro savings and investments,” and these are the policies that need reform.
For instance, in the euro-area, one policy that might bring better trade balance would be higher wage growth, the IMF report said.
And the U.S. and UK should find “growth-friendly” ways to lower their budget deficits, the report said.
Gopinath said the IMF welcomed the trade truce reached between the U.S. and China at the G-20 meeting in June, as any intensification of the bilateral trade dispute could have caused significant damage to the global economy.
If all the U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, in place or threatened, had been enacted, it would have reduced the level of global GDP in 2020 by 0.5%, Gopinath said.
“So this is a significant cost to the global economy at a time when global trade is already very weak and investment is weak in the world,” Gopinath said.
The IMF is set to release its latest assessment on the health of the global economy next week.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been citing the weaker global economic outlook as one reason many on the central bank feel a need to cut interest-rates. Morgan Stanley said this reflects the growing importance of the overseas economy on U.S. GDP.
Read:
U.S. stocks were lower in morning trading on Wednesday on concerns that the trade war between China and the U.S. might heat up. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down about 60 points to 27,276.
Jura The idiot
General
now I read
China’s total debt rises to over 300 per cent of GDP as Beijing loosens borrowing curbs to boost growth
GDP 2018 US/China 20.5/13.6 = about 1.5
total debt according to that article US/China 69/40 = about 1.7
China’s total debt rises to over 300 per cent of GDP as Beijing loosens borrowing curbs to boost growth
- The figure has risen to over US$40 trillion, some 15 per cent of overall global debt, according to data released by the Institute of International Finance
- China has eased its deleveraging campaign in a bid to aid the slowing economy amid the trade war with the United States
GDP 2018 US/China 20.5/13.6 = about 1.5
total debt according to that article US/China 69/40 = about 1.7
Last edited:
Jura The idiot
General
Equation
Lieutenant General
Indeed, from what I read, there was a major uptick in 2019 Q1 global debt accumulation and the global debt is now 320% of global GDP. That puts China's 304% into better perspective.
Jura The idiot
General
cynical statement begins:
GDP 2018 US/China 20.5/13.6 = about 1.5
total debt according to Today at 7:47 PM US/China 69/40 = about 1.7
so China has $6t cushion (69/1.5=46; 6 = 46 - 40)
cynical statement ends.
Quickie
Colonel
Why is it cynical? It's just putting the facts into a better perspective.
Jura The idiot
General
humph