Chinese Aviation Industry

tphuang

tphuang

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TerraN_EmpirE said:
Playing devil here.
Although form a prestige position this is true. From a practical standpoint it may not. This may be the same folly as the A380. A vanity project that could backfire and put Comac in trouble.
The trend for narrow body airliners has been to get bigger. The trend for wide bodies by contrast is to get smaller. C929’s projected size is actually the optimal position.
This is due to the trends of the airline industry that started after the B747. Where in at that time the airlines operated by a hub and spoke network. With a few international airports capable of supporting large transatlantic or transpacific flights. That would then transfer passengers to regional airliners to their destination.
As time progressed smaller airports got better to service first regional jets. Then the regional jets got better engines. Better engines meant that the smaller but still international airliners didn’t need 4 engines so ETOPS meant twin engines displaced quad engine jets. Many of the Narrow body planes were realized to be capable of crossing oceans. So airlines began flying point to point. Why hassle passengers and crew by spoke to hub and hub to spoke when origin to destination? This drove the need for VLA types like the 777 down. Well it still exists the bread and butter of an airline manufacturer are the smaller widebodys. There are very very few routes that can be flown by a 777 but not a 787.

In order to justify actual production of a C939 Comac would need demand outside the PRC and State owned airlines. They would need international orders. Very few airlines have the routes that demand an aircraft that size. Those that do have long Standing relationships with the Duopoly. Relationships that it would be hard to muscle in on. Particularly as by the time the C939 is launched it’s likely going to be facing the next generation of Airbus and Boeing aircraft.
The few places where Boeing and Airbus are not strongly associated are places where either the airlines are not likely to be able to afford new planes or may not have the need.
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i think you make a good point about this. 939 certainly wouldn't be a high priority at this point. Getting narrowbody market right is the most important thing
 
TerraN_EmpirE

TerraN_EmpirE

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gelgoog said:
That all sounds reasonable. Except this is China you are talking about. One of the highest population countries on Earth.
So I am fairly sure a large jet would still be in demand.
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But how many fly internationally? Though you can fly a big airplane regionally it’s inefficient and expensive. The big planes take longer to reach altitude where they have less drag. The regional routes of less than a few hundred miles don’t allow climb to said altitude. Just because “it’s China” doesn’t make every route higher demand. Well it’s likely that there will be increased demand routes the question is does that demand justify the cost of a C939? Numbers wise Chinese airlines favor 787 and A350 of the smaller to medium stretch class over larger options. The few exceptions being international flights and special flights. Those being handled by a proverbial handful of 777, A380 and 747. The vast majority of Chinese airlines like the rest of the world are narrow body.

Narrow body are designed for more pressurization and depressurization and operations from shorter fields. Exactly what you would want for milk runs. Because the vast majority of flights are regional and even in vast countries like Canada, Russia or China modern narrow body planes can have ER ranges.

This is also where HSR is supposed to step in for regional transport.
 
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gelgoog

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Precisely so. The large long range aircraft for international flights do not compete with HSR. So there will be high demand.

As more of the Chinese population reaches higher income levels it is quite likely that more Chinese people will travel for tourism. You also have BRICS. The main BRICS nations are fairly geographically distant from each other. Even Russia and China, which are supposedly neighbors, have their main population centers very distant from each other. Just connecting Russia, China, Brazil, and the Emirates via an air bridge will require a fair amount of large long distance aircraft. You might also add Ethiopia, Egypt, South Africa, and India to that mix.

These aircraft could also be used to transport cargo. Which would further increase their desirability.
 
tphuang

tphuang

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TerraN_EmpirE said:
But how many fly internationally? Though you can fly a big airplane regionally it’s inefficient and expensive. The big planes take longer to reach altitude where they have less drag. The regional routes of less than a few hundred miles don’t allow climb to said altitude. Just because “it’s China” doesn’t make every route higher demand. Well it’s likely that there will be increased demand routes the question is does that demand justify the cost of a C939? Numbers wise Chinese airlines favor 787 and A350 of the smaller to medium stretch class over larger options. The few exceptions being international flights and special flights. Those being handled by a proverbial handful of 777, A380 and 747. The vast majority of Chinese airlines like the rest of the world are narrow body.

Narrow body are designed for more pressurization and depressurization and operations from shorter fields. Exactly what you would want for milk runs. Because the vast majority of flights are regional and even in vast countries like Canada, Russia or China modern narrow body planes can have ER ranges.

This is also where HSR is supposed to step in for regional transport.
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929 will be around A330 size
939 will be around A350-1000 size if i had to guess.

One of the most successful widebody of past 20 years is 77W, which is now likely to be replaced mostly by A350-1000. I can see the argument that you'd want to have an aircraft in the same segment as A330 and another in A350-1000, since Airbus has that right now
 
vincent

vincent

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I once flew on a 787 from Shanghai to Guangzhou. I think the reason is the flight routes and landing spots are very limited in China and airlines want to use the biggest planes to handle the large number of passengers.
 
TerraN_EmpirE

TerraN_EmpirE

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gelgoog said:
Precisely so. The large long range aircraft for international flights do not compete with HSR. So there will be high demand.

As more of the Chinese population reaches higher income levels it is quite likely that more Chinese people will travel for tourism. You also have BRICS. The main BRICS nations are fairly geographically distant from each other. Even Russia and China, which are supposedly neighbors, have their main population centers very distant from each other. Just connecting Russia, China, Brazil, and the Emirates via an air bridge will require a fair amount of large long distance aircraft. You might also add Ethiopia, Egypt, South Africa, and India to that mix.

These aircraft could also be used to transport cargo. Which would further increase their desirability.
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Air cargo would depend upon type. Lighter low quality production is shifting out of China in its own off shoring into countries like Bangladesh. Higher quality production goods are more cargo container ship or rail transport based. No matter how many C939F China could make. It would never be affordable to ship Geely, BYD or Trumpchi cars and truck on volume upon them.
Air freight and airline passenger industry live a bubble west and east based on any number of political and financial considerations. Black swan events like the Asian financial crisis, 9/11, Covid can drive demand into the floor.

Although tourism is likely to increase assuming a population income increase. The question is whether this would justify an expansion of Chinese Airlines routes into said even then if said increase justifies a new airliner of the jumbo class and not simply purchase of C929 or foreign offerings.
The decision on such isn’t just based on a potential demand but political considerations as well. You can come up with a list based on BRICS but remember just being a BRICS member doesn’t make it necessarily a great tourist destination or even friendly place to visit. Russia is in a war, Egypt is fickle. Brazil and India play both sides. India and China are in a Cold War of their own. Ethiopia and South Africa are politically unstable. Well yes they could be destinations that’s making a big assumption.

Overall I am not saying that there couldn’t be an interest in a C939. I am saying that the safest bet is not to go forward with it. There is a long history of proposed Jumbos that never materialized as resources or demand were not there. MD12, KR 860, Boeing NLA, Tu404, Lockheed LST Boeing Sonic cruiser just to name a few. Airbus almost went bust because of the A380. Boeing is where it is today due in part to issues that came about as a result of the 787 being built with an immature design process.
Comac is just moving its second airliner into production jumping to the success of airliner #4 is premature.
 
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gelgoog

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It takes a decade to develop an engine and five years or more to design an aircraft. Before this comparative studies and initial design proposals must be made. So China cannot wait forever with this. If they start initial work on it now the aircraft will likely show up in production in 2040.
By that point the world economy will be substantively different.
 
TerraN_EmpirE

TerraN_EmpirE

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tphuang said:
929 will be around A330 size
939 will be around A350-1000 size if i had to guess.

One of the most successful widebody of past 20 years is 77W, which is now likely to be replaced mostly by A350-1000. I can see the argument that you'd want to have an aircraft in the same segment as A330 and another in A350-1000, since Airbus has that right now
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Oh I can as well it’s just the question of if the market place and accommodate the added capacity. If they could find enough orders then bravo. If however they are like the IL96. With just a handful of orders then it’s a waste.

vincent said:
I once flew on a 787 from Shanghai to Guangzhou. I think the reason is the flight routes and landing spots are very limited in China and airlines want to use the biggest planes to handle the large number of passengers.
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It’s not that it doesn’t happen. I know Air China was flying a 747-8I between Beijing and Shanghai Hongqiao about 660 miles. ANA back in the 1970s did something similar with 747-100SR. It’s that it’s a waste of fuel burn and only likely to happen where you have an unusual amount of demand.
The Aircraft used on that route though are the same assets used on international flights. Generally they they it as a “road test” after maintenance or as part of a final leg of a longer trip. Or as the Aircraft is being held back.

gelgoog said:
It takes a decade to develop an engine and five years or more to design an aircraft. Before this comparative studies and initial design proposals must be made. So China cannot wait forever with this. If they start initial work on it now the aircraft will likely show up in production in 2040.
By that point the world economy will be substantively different.
Click to expand...

I said I am playing the devil. I do admit being skeptical of the C939 and C949. Mostly due to the trends of the markets. VLA have been on the decline. Well it’s true it takes time to develop a new airliner especially when you are starting from scratch of developing engines and Avionics to boot this also makes it a big risk. I point to an excerpt of a statement made by AeroDynamic Advisory Director Richard Aboulafia.
“Launched with a hideous mix of hubris, shoddy market analysis, nationalism and simple wishful thinking…”
Now he was talking about the A380, but his statement and what happened with that aircraft is still relevant. Airbus was projecting a huge demand for VLA at the time. It had started A380 development in 1988 and by 2004 for to launch and everyone was awestruck by the new King of the Skies. Airbus was on cloud 9 and everyone was expecting great sales for the A380… The A350 ended up the winner mind you only after a major redesign to better counter the 787.
 
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pbd456

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gelgoog said:
That all sounds reasonable. Except this is China you are talking about. One of the highest population countries on Earth.
So I am fairly sure a large jet would still be in demand.
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I thought that was the argument for A380. There will be some demand but is that enough to justify the huge capital expenditure?

What are the destination from china that a c939 could fly but not c929?

Wouldn't it make more sense for c929 to be like a350? A330 is an old design.
 
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