Chinese Aviation Industry

weig2000 said:

Boeing's perilous position in the Chinese market.

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A lot of people accuse COMAC heavily depends upon international suppliers in developing C919, but COMAC insists it follows a tried-and-trusted, successful business model.

Some excerpts:

Boeing is organized in the same way. As US industry consultant Lee Hall of the Clew Group points out:



And the concluding paragraph:

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Well, Boeing is crewed in China. I've discussed this for a while now. They will probably get a few orders just so that COMAC doesn't get sanctioned harder, but that will be it.

Mischa said:

Very hard. Actually, they used to have a joint venture assembling E145 aircraft in China, but it ceased in 2016. I suppose there may be some joint studies in future commercial aviation (which is not rare in the aerospace industry), but cooperation as big as to carry out a new model, I don't think it gonna happen.
Btw, E2 may probably be the last commercial model for Embraer. It's extremely difficult to develop a new model and survive nowadays, without financial and political support from big markets.

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It will have to be a political decision. Remember, Embraer looked to merge with Boeing because Boeing wanted to get some low cost engineering work from Brazil, but it didn't work out. I also know from following airline industry that Embraer aircraft just aren't built as well as Airbus and Boeing aircraft. You can't use E1 for red eye. They are frequent hangar queens. They get retired early because the cost of maintenance is too high after a while. So, I don't see E2 being successful.

So Brazilian gov't might be incentivized to work with COMAC. COMAC I think could have a lot to learn from Embraer. Like, customer expectations, supply chain management, after service support & mistake areas.

but since both Embraer and COMAC only recently developed new aircraft, they will have to decide how they can cooperate.

tphuang said:

It will have to be a political decision. Remember, Embraer looked to merge with Boeing because Boeing wanted to get some low cost engineering work from Brazil, but it didn't work out. I also know from following airline industry that Embraer aircraft just aren't built as well as Airbus and Boeing aircraft. You can't use E1 for red eye. They are frequent hangar queens. They get retired early because the cost of maintenance is too high after a while. So, I don't see E2 being successful.

So Brazilian gov't might be incentivized to work with COMAC. COMAC I think could have a lot to learn from Embraer. Like, customer expectations, supply chain management, after service support & mistake areas.

but since both Embraer and COMAC only recently developed new aircraft, they will have to decide how they can cooperate.

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Probably won't be easy on that front either. Embraer did have some bitter relations with AVIC and COMAC before.


One key factor mentioned in the article is regarding the possibility of the clash of role and functionality between Embraer's E2 regional jets with COMAC's ARJ21 and a future potentially squeezed variant of the C919.

In Brazil Embraer is seen by nationalists only as an assembler of foreign parts and submission to western power, because without engines and components the company loses any utility.

If COMAC still does not have access to national engines and critical components, the Chinese aeronautical industry must be submissive to western masters as well as the failed Brazilian industries.

For China to still insist on using so many Western components is a great danger. USA is crazy trying to destroy China and will sanction Chinese companies in any situation they want and soon. It's an existential threat to the empire's power and they won't hesitate to destroy China even if it hurts American companies themselves. And Airbus is also dependent on the USA, the Chinese cannot rely on European vassals.

COMAC should partner with Russia, strengthen a supply chain and technologies independent of western blackmail. But there are still many submissive sectors to the West even in China.

tphuang said:

Well, Boeing is crewed in China. I've discussed this for a while now. They will probably get a few orders just so that COMAC doesn't get sanctioned harder, but that will be it.


It will have to be a political decision. Remember, Embraer looked to merge with Boeing because Boeing wanted to get some low cost engineering work from Brazil, but it didn't work out. I also know from following airline industry that Embraer aircraft just aren't built as well as Airbus and Boeing aircraft. You can't use E1 for red eye. They are frequent hangar queens. They get retired early because the cost of maintenance is too high after a while. So, I don't see E2 being successful.

So Brazilian gov't might be incentivized to work with COMAC. COMAC I think could have a lot to learn from Embraer. Like, customer expectations, supply chain management, after service support & mistake areas.

but since both Embraer and COMAC only recently developed new aircraft, they will have to decide how they can cooperate.

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This is also what I was told, Ejet's performance is not quite satisfying in the fuel efficiency and dispatch rate. Its major advantage is lower MTOW than 737/A320, which will save some operation fees. Moreover, Ejet and E2 are not classified as regional aircraft in China, further lowering their competitiveness there.

Indeed COMAC could learn a lot from Embraer about how to run a successful commercial aircraft company, and more importantly, to use the global support network of Embraer. This is critical if COMAC wants to sell its aircraft oversea. I see it possible if China opens its market to E2 and ERJ to trade for it. COMAC actually knows ARJ is shit, so they have canceled the stretched version many years ago. There is little overlap between Embraer and Comac: MA700, E2, C919, and CR929.

But this is a very ideal situation. Actually, the environment won't allow cooperation between COMAC and Embraer. Further, China and COMAC won't give up ARJ21 easily. Actually, AVIC had very good cooperation with Bombardier, as a major supplier to Dash8 and C Series. When Bombardier faced difficulties, COMAC hesitated to deeper the cooperation because of the ARJ21 program. Furthermore, Chinese airlines didn't order batches of C Series (actually it's because Bombardier refused to help dispose their aged aircraft, so more than 40 firm orders from the biggest airline in China was gone, followed by orders from smaller airlines). And we all know the following story, Bombardier sank in the financial crisis and the C Series program was sold to Airbus.

It's a shame for the global aviation industry, but it's probably in China's interest to kill embraer. Buying from Airbus helps China get some influence in Europe and keep the trade surplus down. And avoiding support for embraer keeps the global South markets free for future Chinese exports. A rising Embraer might be much harder to beat than Boeing.

Buying Airbus is actually ideal because it avoids funding Boeing and European innovation is so weak today that Airbus won't be able to outinnovate comac

Minm said:

It's a shame for the global aviation industry, but it's probably in China's interest to kill embraer. Buying from Airbus helps China get some influence in Europe and keep the trade surplus down. And avoiding support for embraer keeps the global South markets free for future Chinese exports. A rising Embraer might be much harder to beat than Boeing.

Buying Airbus is actually ideal because it avoids funding Boeing and European innovation is so weak today that Airbus won't be able to outinnovate comac

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Even without considering their favor of homemade ARJ21 and C919, there is no demand for Embraer's product in Chinese civil aviation. Actually, if it's not because of the administrative order, the "Big Three (CA MU CZ)" wouldn't order any regional jets, even including ARJ21. Embraer's major market is the US, more than 40% of E-jets are flying there.

In the commercial aircraft industry nowadays, innovation is everywhere, not only in the aircraft itself. It is more important to deliver proper, reliable aircraft than "advanced" aircraft.

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries of Japan has officially terminated the MRJ SpaceJet regional jet project, and will liquidate its Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation subsidiary.


From the tweet:

Many years ago, some Japanese media were mocking China's C919 and ARJ21 ago. But now, China’s C919 has begun delivery to the customers, while ARJ21 has also been delivered to many Chinese airlines and even exported overseas. Time will tell everything.

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Partially quoted from a reply:

Even with complete set of industrial chain support from the United States and Europe, the MRJ SpaceJet project still failed.

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I think we can learn two things from this:

1. It is no easy feat for any country to develop, build and maintain sizeable passenger jetliners. So far, other than the US and Russia, no individual countries, even those with advanced technological and scientific capabilities, are able to completely master the construction of indigenous sizeable passenger jetliners on their own.

Right now, China is the only one out of everyone else who is working hard with tears-and-sweat to fully enter this category.

2. China's ARJ21 regional jet and soon C919 narrowbody airliner can only be made into reality and success thanks to the immense support and backing by the entirety of the citizens, government and country of China.

ACuriousPLAFan said:

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries of Japan has officially terminated the MRJ SpaceJet regional jet project, and will liquidate its Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation subsidiary.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622945567147167747

From the tweet:

Partially quoted from a reply:


I think we can learn two things from this:

1. It is no easy feat for any country to develop, build and maintain sizeable passenger jetliners. So far, other than the US and Russia, no individual countries, even those with advanced technological and scientific capabilities, are able to completely master the construction of indigenous sizeable passenger jetliners on their own.

Right now, China is the only one out of everyone else who is working hard with tears-and-sweat to fully enter this category.

2. China's ARJ21 regional jet and soon C919 narrowbody airliner can only be made into reality and success thanks to the immense support and backing by the entirety of the citizens, government and country of China.

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I hope you understand why mrj failed. It failed because it went after market segment that nobody wants. Arj21 should not be considered a success. How many hours is it getting flown on a daily basis? These are important questions.

At this point, c919 looks like it has good potential, but airlines are ordering them because it's targeting where the demand is. Nobody wants a 100 seat aircraft. The economics for that is horrendous. 150 to 200 seat is the middle of the market right now. That's why c919 should have good chance of success.

MRJ was counting on US scope clauses changing, allowing the MRJ to be counted as a regional jet. Mitsubishi’s overconfidence in the program and their in-house designers meant the design was intrinsically incompatible with FAA standards.

ARJ-21 is first and foremost a project to gain experience in designing, building and maintaining a domestic jet airliner. With more than a hundred planes built, China’s aviation industry is now much more developed with it than without. If you look at it in this way, ARJ has been very successful in its role.

tphuang said:

I hope you understand why mrj failed. It failed because it went after market segment that nobody wants. Arj21 should not be considered a success. How many hours is it getting flown on a daily basis? These are important questions.

At this point, c919 looks like it has good potential, but airlines are ordering them because it's targeting where the demand is. Nobody wants a 100 seat aircraft. The economics for that is horrendous. 150 to 200 seat is the middle of the market right now. That's why c919 should have good chance of success.

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I think it's not only the technical reasons that result in few operational hours. Chinese airlines are also wondering where to place ARJ21. It's too small, even in Xinjiang which we usually believe to be a big market for regional flights. Moreover, it's expensive to operate, especially the fuel efficiency. When they developed this aircraft, they were arguing to build a mainline or regional aircraft. The forecast demand for ARJ21 is 900 then. But when it was finally introduced, the actual demand is less than 100.

The regional aircraft that really hits the demand in China is a 50-70 seats turboprop aircraft. They are cheaper and easier for airlines to operate compared with jetliners. The required runway length is shorter, which will decrease the investment in regional airports. It is sad that MA700 is delayed because of the sanction of the engine.