Chinese Aviation Industry


t2contra

Major
Well, there is - the Wrights never pretended the Flyer was anything other than a proof of concept and didn't force it on customers to operate at a loss (or with state subsidies, more likely)... What they did (and how AVIC should perhaps have handled the ARJ21) is more like the Boeing Model 367.

That does not matter in the Chinese context. What mattered were the baby steps needed to become a viable aircraft manufacturer.
 

lcloo

Junior Member
It does not matter if ARJ21 is a technological non-success or whatever, what is important is it kick starts China's domestic civil aviation manufacturing for the soon to be World's largest civil aviation market. And China is going to take a significant major share of the huge cake instead of letting Airbus and Boeing sharing the spoil.

In fact, rright now during the pandemic period and forced grounding of many US and European airliners, China is now temporarily the largest aviation market in the World, US may take back the #1 spot when their airliners are fully back flying at 2019 level.

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Boeing Forecasts Strong Growth in China’s Aviation Market Despite Near-term Challenges

China remains on track to become world’s largest aviation market

20-year demand for commercial airplanes and services worth
$3.1 trillion

Beijing, Nov. 12, 2020
Boeing [NYSE: BA] expects China’s airlines to acquire 8,600 new airplanes valued at $1.4 trillion and commercial aviation services valued at $1.7 trillion over the next 20 years, reflecting an expected robust recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic. Boeing shared its annual China market forecast today as part of the 2020 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), which shows anticipated demand for commercial airplanes and services.

China’s rapidly growing middle class, increased economic growth and growing urbanization are all factors in the Boeing forecast, suggesting the country will lead passenger travel globally in the next few years. Since 2000, China’s commercial jet fleet has expanded sevenfold, and approximately 25% of all aviation growth worldwide in the last decade has come from China. Boeing forecasts this trend will continue over the next 20 years.

“While COVID-19 has severely impacted every passenger market worldwide, China’s fundamental growth drivers remain resilient and robust,” said Richard Wynne, managing director, China Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “Not only has China’s recovery from COVID-19 outpaced the rest of the world, but also continued government investments toward improving and expanding its transportation infrastructure, large regional traffic flows, and a flourishing domestic market mean this region of the world will thrive.”

Despite the challenges imposed by the pandemic, China’s projected airplane and services market represents a nearly 7% increase over last year’s 20-year CMO forecast. These increases are driven by continued high demand for single-aisle airplanes and China’s expanding share of passenger widebodies to support international routes, along with a large replacement cycle as China’s fleet matures. Boeing also anticipates growth in Chinese demand for new and converted freighters and digital solutions to help carriers further innovate and succeed.

The 2020 China CMO includes:
  • Boeing forecasts China’s annual passenger traffic growth to be 5.5% over the next 20 years
  • Boeing estimates operators will need more than 6,450 new single-aisle airplanes in China over the next 20 years. Single-aisle airplanes, such as the 737 family, continue to be the main driver of capacity growth
  • In the widebody market, Boeing forecasts demand for 1,590 deliveries by 2039 in China. Widebody airplanes will account for 18% of China’s deliveries during the 20-year period, down 4% from last year’s forecast due to an anticipated slower recovery in global long-haul traffic
  • China has the world’s highest e-commerce growth rate but significant room for development of air express shipping, presenting an opportunity for robust freighter demand
  • Long-term aviation industry growth in China is expected to drive the need for 395,000 commercial pilots, cabin crew members and aviation technicians to fly and to maintain the country’s airplane fleet
The complete forecast is available at
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.

Boeing is the world's largest aerospace company and leading provider of commercial airplanes, defense, space and security systems, and global services. As a top U.S. exporter, the company supports commercial and government customers in more than 150 countries and leverages the talents of a global supplier base. Building on a legacy of aerospace leadership, Boeing continues to lead in technology and innovation, deliver for its customers and invest in its people and future growth.
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lcloo

Junior Member
Well the danger for China is it gets cut off from the world supply chain and builds its own inferior closed, government-run system that innovates slower. Meanwhile the rest of the world market globalized system is racing ahead faster as each country's companies specialize in a part of the supply chain. So in this case it is not a matter of catching up, it will actually fall farther and farther behind. The Russian aerospace industry has existed for almost 100 years yet it is still behind.
A scenario of tit for tat actions between US and China. If Biden is rational, he won't let this happen.

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Extract from the above by US Chamber of Commerce:-
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Hendrik_2000

Brigadier
Come on - whichever way you cut it, the ARJ21 can hardly be considered as success, that is just not objectively true! Had it been held to the same standards of development progress as the MRJ, it would have been cancelled several times over. Too-big-to-fail Chinese state support accounts for the fact that it made it into service, not superior engineering. In terms of technology, the MRJ aimed to be quite a bit more advanced, including efficient GTF engines.

1 million passengers sounds like a lot, but for an aircraft that entered "service" 4 years earlier and numbers 33 active airframes that is in fact a dismal performance! Take for example the SSJ100, itself not exactly a resounding market success and beset with spares shortages which affect daily utilization rates. By October 2020, one single airline (Azimuth) operating 12 Superjets had managed to transport 2.7 million passengers since starting service in late 2017 and for 2021 alone, it aims to hit 2 million! In other words, 170% more passengers in 75% of the time, using 64% fewer aircraft - the ARJ21 has achieved little more than 10% of the passengers per aircraft and year. And that's compared to an aircraft that is by no means the best-performing candidate in this respect.
You are comparing apple with orange Russia has way more experience than China when it come to developing passenger jet whereas China has to start from scratch. Subjected to technical embargo since 1950 Only in the late 80 Chinese university resume operation!

Russia inherited much of Soviet Union aerospace infrastructure including research institute, factory, skilled personnel, maintenance Soviet Union built jet fighter by the thousand after the WW 2

You should compare China to India Well Japan is ok though like Soviet Japan has highly developed aerospace industry prior to WWII
 

gadgetcool5

Junior Member
Registered Member
If you look at the wikipedia article, you will find that it links to Planespotters.

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4 deliveries in 2021 so far, also deliveries seem to be lumpy. Nothing seems particularly notable in 2021.
Well they are on track to deliver 16 planes this year then. Slightly slower than last year when they should be accelerating. 16-20 planes a year is not enough for a successful aircraft.
 

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