IMO, C929 is a R&D/political project, not so much a economical one. The fact that it envolves 2 different countries with 2 different R&D centers creates a lot of development risks (political, financial, one side delaying the other, etc). Also, i suspect that russia will hesitate in sharing much of its know-how with china, and that this could decisively hurt the project.
Chinese Aviation Industry
- Thread starter FriedRiceNSpice
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IMO, C929 is a R&D/political project, not so much a economical one. The fact that it envolves 2 different countries with 2 different R&D centers creates a lot of development risks (political, financial, one side delaying the other, etc). Also, i suspect that russia will hesitate in sharing much of its know-how with china, and that this could decisively hurt the project.
Equation
Lieutenant General
With continuing economic sanctioning and their R&D funding deteriorating in all sectors I don't think they have a choice. They are lucky to have China as their partner with a growing high tech industries in many sectors to go by.
antiterror13
Brigadier
well, if Russia hesitate to share (which I doubt it) .. do you think China would be happily share everything they have to Russia? ... it (always) is both ways matey ... if you don't share it means you will not get anything from your partner ...... if you ever had a business deal or cooperation with others ... you will know what I meant
Equation
Lieutenant General
well, if Russia hesitate to share (which I doubt it) .. do you think China would be happily share everything they have to Russia? ... it (always) is both ways matey ... if you don't share it means you will not get anything from your partner ...... if you ever had a business deal or cooperation with others ... you will know what I meant
They will ONLY share what's necessary for the success of the C929. This will also be work out on the contracts as well.
Skywatcher
Captain
Or future ventures. They might want something for the 390 passenger market, and that COMAC next generation narrow body could have good prospects.
b787
Captain
it is economical rather than political.
Russia and China went separate ways to built C919 and MS-21, why? the economic risk is lower, the markets for both aircraft are large, for aircraft in the range of B777 or even B-787 is much smaller.
More seats per airplane mean less aircraft sold.
China if lucky could built 1000-5000 C919 aircraft in China and overseas, but C929 or C939 if they are larger, fewer aircraft are going to be built.
Airliners buy large aircraft for long distances and smaller for shorter routes.
B-787 is a big success, it has sold 500 aircraft already and a larger aircraft built by Russia for example Il-96 can not get even close to B-777.
China has no chances, for starters, China has not even built ARJ-21 well, the jet is mostly sold in China, Both China and Russia can not enter the large aircraft markets without big risks.
Russia has not penetrated well the Market, and by that i mean the western or even African one.
Tu-204/214, a B-757 type aircraft has not even been successful less than 150 are in service, the Tu-334 a kind of ARJ-21 was not even built beyond a single prototype .
Is not that Russia lacks the technology, Russia has the technology, but aircraft are bought by very small margins, if an aircraft has 4% or 5% better range, 6% better economy etc etc.
Plus you have the fact commercial aircraft are bought because political reasons, Japans buys B-777 because they build the wings.
Russia and China know they can not compete without the risk of failing, thus Russia gets access to the Chinese Market, China gets a potential share partner for the world stage sales.
The reason Airbus was created was because all the European nations could make aircraft, but all these projects had the risk of bankrupting their makers.
Same is Russia and China.
Small nations help the big players in ways people do not expect , for example Frisa from Mexico and especialistas en turbopartes from Mexico too both supply Airbus and GE with small but fundamental parts in aircraft engines or landing gears.
China and Russia will do the same some Chinese companies will supply parts for the joint venture of COMAC and UAC and some Russian companies will supply other parts, is not that they share tech, they simply agree to supply parts to the aircraft in the same way Spain or Germany build different parts of airbus aircraft but then they need to coordinate to design them so they fit well.
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b787
Captain
aircraft are not designed by 1 or 2 companies but by hundreds of suppliers, COMAC as well UAC are just assemblers, they coordinarte the hundreds of small companies supplying technology.well, if Russia hesitate to share (which I doubt it) .. do you think China would be happily share everything they have to Russia? ... it (always) is both ways matey ... if you don't share it means you will not get anything from your partner ...... if you ever had a business deal or cooperation with others ... you will know what I meant
To put it mildly Rolls & Royce does not share tech in any Airbus aircraft made by Airbus, the jet engines they supply can match any aircraft under some conditions either by Tupolev, Boeing or Airbus.
there are hundreds of Chinese Suppliers and hundreds of Russian suppliers who will not share any tech, they simply supply parts custom made, UAC and COMAC will do something similar, they will assign which parts are to be build by each company, will they share some tech? yes some but for Example UEC is design a jet engine in the 30 tonnes class it will be built in Russia with very likely only Russian suppliers.
China can either go by buying a western type engine, a Russian one or design its own.
Avionics is similar, China might choose some western, Russian or Chinese made ones, or simply they will agree which company will supply what and what parts are to be build upon customer request.
To build some parts they need to work together, but not exactly doing the same thing, they set the specifications, and the suppliers build the parts upon request without sharing any tech.
Do you see the western Suppliers of ARJ-21 or C-919 sharing tech? no they do not , they build the parts off the shelf, they do not share any tech, they just simply supply parts that in many cases can be supplied to COMAC`s rivals
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The Chinese market is a very real, tangible thing, but what the fudge is "potential share partner for the world stage sales"? Like many others here, I don't really see what Russia can realistically offer. They're not giving up whatever tech they can still contribute, never have and never will, so what else can China get from them?
b787
Captain
China can force to the Chinese airliners to buy Chinese made aircraft, but outside China things are different, the US and European Markets are big too, but you forget that even the Latin American or African markets are important as a whole, Russia also forces Russian airliners to buy Russian made aircraft.
Larger aircraft are built in smaller numbers
B-747 less than 1600 in 47 years
B-777 less than 1500 in 23 years
B-767 less than 1100 in 35 years
these aircraft are built for the world stage, for Europe, Asia, Africa, South America etc etc, Russia has built less than 150 Il-86 and Il-96 since 1980.
Do you get it or not
A-340 has less 400 aircraft made
These aircraft are built for airliners around the world.
Aircraft need markets otherwise the profits do not come and the risk of not even recovering the investment exist, basically China will not fix that by forcing its airliners to buy Chinese made aircraft
Do you think Il-96 has recovered the investment and made profits with less than 30 made?
Why do you think MD got bankrupt? do you want the answer? well MD-10 was not as successful as B-747, Convair also made the 880 and 990 were not success stories, same L-1011, well not even B-146, if you want to know why Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer are the most successful makers, see how many aircraft have made and sold.
Russia despite is a minor player in sales, has aircraft like Tu-154, Tu-134 and Yak-40 which have been produced in larger numbers than any Chinese jet, and more important Russia has the jet engine experience to compete with western manufacturers.
the Tu-154 went beyond the 1000 aircraft made mark, China is struggling to sell the ARJ-21 and it is forcing Chinese made aircraft to the Chinese airliners.
Do you think Germany did not make airliners after WWII, well they did but this never went beyond a few aircraft made, the VFW-614 for example never reached 111 aircraft made only 110 were made
Why they joined Airbus?
simple larger markets give more chances to any aircraft a Chinese Russian made aircraft might be bought by Cuba, Belarus, Iran, Kazakhstan and some former soviet states, if lucky this will lure African or other Asian nations, so Russia is a partner too for world stage markets