Chinese Aviation Industry

tphuang said:

low cost carriers use point to point model.

Many large international airlines like Emirates, Etihad, Qatar, Cathay, Singapore, Turkish use one hub model.

And as for the aircraft that do use hub and spoke model, they are using larger aircraft. All the major domestic airlines in US are getting rid of the turboprops and MD-90 to larger planes. This is going to happen more and more in the coming years when there are more passengers, all the airport become slot or gate constrained.

As for your example of Bombardier, it got 3 orders this year. That's awesome. There are only 66 unfilled orders by your own numbers.

There is a reason it spent so much money on C Series. It knows the regional jet market is not the future. Even with the issues it had in development, it has quite a few orders now with C Series. It gets one order from Delta and it's for 75 + 50 options. It gets another order from aircraft for 45 + 30 options. That's more than the total orders they've gotten out of Q400 and CRJ series in the past 2 years.

And of the E2 series, the larger E190 and E195 are getting most of the orders.

The regional jet market and turboprop market is not disappearing, but it's not growing. The 100+ seat market is expanding rapidly. That's what the world is buying. That's what Chinese Airlines are buying.

Even among regional jets, ARJ-21 is a new product that does not offer anything over existing products. It will get domestic orders because government pressure, but that's the limit of its reach.

That's why COMAC is focusing on C919 series. Everyone knows where the market is.

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Hendrik_2000 said:

We are talking here whether ARJ21 is economically viable or not. You said it is not don't bother with it
I think you are wrong because the growth in air traffic will come from the regional market of first and 2nd tier city in China So there will be huge market for regional.
jet. Just the experience alone in designing, certification,training and servicing this commercial jet is worth the cost of development.

China has never sell a commercial jet before so the prospective client has no way of knowing if the can set up maintenance depot and part supply logistic.
This is the main selling point of the jet. There is more to it than flashy spec when it come to selling a jet.
Availability, reliability and service worldwide is important consideration.

So this jet will provide China with the platform to show that they can do just that

As to go head to head against the Boeing and Airbus or even Embraer That is a moot point because ARJ 21 is not FAA certify.
So for time being just concentrate on Chinese market and some overseas client and work on the logistic.
ARJ 21 is stepping stone for the C919. So there is place for both aircraft

Bombardier get into the bigger plane because it sense an opportunity as the duopoly concentrate on the bigger plane and has no updated plane for the smaller jet. But they have problem because the entrenched nature of the airline that prefer to stick to the existing duopoly than change to completely to new supplier, It take Airbus 30 years to be profitable and with generous subsidy from EU. In the meantime bombardier is bleeding to death.even getting 200 order doesn't justify the development cost

Embraer has better strategy instead of completely new aircraft they provide their existing client with upgrade of bigger plane

The reason for bigger plane selling better than the smaller plane is because the market in the west doesn't growth that fast and increasing cost of jet fuel until recently drove people to budget carrier that pack the plane like sardine and use bigger plane

So it is completely different market

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tphuang said:

how about this.. You look up flights between 2nd tier airport in China. Something outside of top 10 in china and then look at its flight to PEK, PVG or CAN. Look at which aircraft they are actually flying.

for example, google wuh to pek

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and look at the flights on flighaware

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That's 4 different airlines and they are all flying A320ceo or B738. Your entire point is that there are a large market for this regional jet model. My point is that there used to be a decently large one and now the airlines are all up gauging. That's a phenomenon we've seen in the past 10 years. Everyone is buying and using larger aircraft for the same route. Look at Chinese airlines and how many a320 and b737 they are purchasing compared to regional aircraft.

If you want to ignore the west, just look at the asian market where all the growth are happening. AirAsia, Vietjet, Indigo, GoAir, jetstar are all using a320 series as the backbone of their fleet. And AirAsia cel has recently said that he is buying a321 instead of a320 because it carries more passengers and that slots are getting harder and harder.

As for your spill about how China needs to build ARJ-21 in order to get the experience to build C919, I would actually agree with that. But your original argument was that there is a large market for regional jet which I think is not the case with the market moving larger in size.

At this point, ARJ-21 only has 2 in service and who knows how long it will take COMAC to even deliver what's on the order book. They don't seem to be that excited about it. All the attention is on C919 and C929 now. SSJ so far is looking pretty good in service and this is coming from CitJet which is not a Russian airline. Giving arj-21's slow delivery, availability is certainly an issue. It certainly doesn't have the same serviceability or maintainability as SSJ. And definitely not as much as mature airliner like CRJ series or E-jet. And btw, look at who its largest order comes from and the rest of the fleet.

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Hendrik_2000 said:

There are more hub to hub air service than spoke to hub , That explain why there more A320 shown on departure board . It has nothing to do with the transition of airline into larger plane.
Country like Singapore , Hongkong, Vietnam,doesn't have hinter land or too poor to have secondary airport .
Comac plan is to have 75 ARJ 21 produced next year . So no problem with the production
If you notice all the 2016 order for Bamabrdier CRJ aircraft come from Chinese airline.

Bombardier and Embraer get into larger aircraft because it is more lucrative and has higher margin
Plus the market is always larger than regional jet
Both company still receiving order and has backlog that show there is still place for regional jet

But for Comac that doesn't have track record in aircraft after sale service it . It is imperative that they establish service record and prove that their product has meet world standard.Learn to crawl before you try to run!
Both ARJ 21 and C919 receive new order in the latest Zhuhai airshow . So there is market for both airplane

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