Chinese Aviation Industry production rates ...


AndrewS

Major
Registered Member
Consider the qualities differences as well, being the most significant as compared to the differences in other US-Chinese platforms.

The differences are really shocking overall.
In summary, the Chinese shipbuilding industry:

1. Can produce surface warships comparable in terms of technical specifications to their US counterparts.
2. Has a lot of spare shipyard capacity to produce more warships
3. And is competitive on a commercial basis, so warship construction costs are low.

So surface navy production can be ramped up usefully.

But this doesn't apply generally to the aviation industry.
So it would be better to wait until the Chinese aviation industry has caught up, then consider ramping up production.

But we're starting to see that with the H-20, J-20, J-31, Y-8 variants etc
 

sinophilia

New Member
Registered Member
F Since early 2000s or so up until 2018 or so. During that time, right after F-16 procurement ended, there was perhaps 70 planes procured per year. F-22 and Superhornets. Later on, F-22 production ended and F-35 production started. Superhornet production went down per year. So it was only recently that US started procuring almost 90 F-35 per year (and some Superhornets on top of that) that we can talk about US overtaking Chinese production.

Chinese procurement during that period was pretty steady actually. 20-30 flankers per year, 30-40 J10s per year, 20-ish JH7s. Later on JH7 procurement ended and H6 bombers were procured, around 10 or so per year. J10s possibly went little over 40 in some years. J20 evidently started getting procured half a dozen or a dozen per year lately.

So i'd say China procured some 75-85 combat planes per year during that period, with the higher number being the approximate current production.

As to when will it Chinese production surpass the US one - i don't think anyone knows. F-35 procurement is going up still, it'll go over 120 for the US per year within just a few years. Some say it will even reach 160 in certain years but those aren't signed contracts so who knows. Superhornet production is still ongoing, even though at small figures. It may very well cease by the time F-35 goes over 120 per year. But F15 procurement for USAF will happen at some small quanitities. But still, perhaps a dozen per year for some years ? And then we're probably looking at a dozen B21 bombers per year from 2025 onward.

So i don't think US procurement will drop under 130 planes per year before 2035 or so. Obviously, that's so far into the future that it's silly even trying to predict that far.
Unless you mean only combat planes, The US is producing a lot more than ~150 or so

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Inst

Senior Member
Part of the Chinese calculation has traditionally been that the US is a global power that requires offsets versus multiple entities (Iran, Russia, etc). This means that the US will only deploy so much of its forces to the East Asia region facing China.

With Trump's recent attempts to bomb apart the American World System, the US is now a major power that can increasingly abandon regional defense commitments and focus further onto a single region. This is implying that ratios of US force deployment in East Asia can go up from the current 60% to 75% or even 90%.
 
Part of the Chinese calculation has traditionally been that the US is a global power that requires offsets versus multiple entities (Iran, Russia, etc). This means that the US will only deploy so much of its forces to the East Asia region facing China.

With Trump's recent attempts to bomb apart the American World System, the US is now a major power that can increasingly abandon regional defense commitments and focus further onto a single region. This is implying that ratios of US force deployment in East Asia can go up from the current 60% to 75% or even 90%.
80% is impossible, let alone 90% ... lol ;)

Where did you get "currently 60%", it was the objective during Obama Asia Pivot policy which failed miserably
 

Inst

Senior Member
The assumption is that the US abandons its defense commitments in the rest of the world as China becomes its primary threat. In either case, assuming that it's 1,200 F-35s to offset in the region is a bit low. As I've mentioned before, that's not considering that the US is moving to get NGAD (5.5 / 6th gen) out by 2025 as per latest reports.

This drags back into my "J-20 is a heavyweight fighter" interpretation where the J-20 can't simply 1:1 F-35s, but must be able to 2:1 it and hopefully at least 1:1.25 future NGADs.
 

AndrewS

Major
Registered Member
The assumption is that the US abandons its defense commitments in the rest of the world as China becomes its primary threat. In either case, assuming that it's 1,200 F-35s to offset in the region is a bit low. As I've mentioned before, that's not considering that the US is moving to get NGAD (5.5 / 6th gen) out by 2025 as per latest reports.

This drags back into my "J-20 is a heavyweight fighter" interpretation where the J-20 can't simply 1:1 F-35s, but must be able to 2:1 it and hopefully at least 1:1.25 future NGADs.
The US isn't able to abandon its defense commitments elsewhere.

Europe has an emotional appeal to the US, because of its Greco-Roman heritage.
And the US can't abandon NATO, otherwise it "loses" influence (both military and economic) over Europe, which is an economic rival.

And the Middle East has a religious appeal, which is important because the US is a religious country.
We can see the US keeps getting dragged back into the mess that is the Middle East.

Even if the US abandoned the Middle East, it would be counterproductive as China would move in to secure the oil supplies in the Persian Gulf.
And that means control over the oil importing countries of Europe and Asia (eg. Japan, Taiwan, Korea)
 
The assumption is that the US abandons its defense commitments in the rest of the world as China becomes its primary threat. In either case, assuming that it's 1,200 F-35s to offset in the region is a bit low. As I've mentioned before, that's not considering that the US is moving to get NGAD (5.5 / 6th gen) out by 2025 as per latest reports.

This drags back into my "J-20 is a heavyweight fighter" interpretation where the J-20 can't simply 1:1 F-35s, but must be able to 2:1 it and hopefully at least 1:1.25 future NGADs.
thats just a pure daydream .. you need to understand more of geopolitics matey
 

sinophilia

New Member
Registered Member
thats just a pure daydream .. you need to understand more of geopolitics matey
The US was already becoming paranoid of Chinese power when China was only 1/5th the size of the US economy. When China is literally a peer state and surpassing it year after year in many areas you think its not going to shit its pants? Of course it will.

The US will throw away its pet projects in the Middle East if need be and surge platforms and men into Japan, Korea, Australia, and Pacific Islands in the next decade, mark my words.
 

sinophilia

New Member
Registered Member
China needs to start really building up its military. Take major risks, who gives a shit if they are embarrassing and fail. Failure is sometimes necessary. Increase military spending to ~3% of GDP by 2023. Start building military and logistics bases in Central & South/Southeast Asia. Start mass training exercises in neighboring states to its new bases in the Middle East.

It's time.
 

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