China's transport, tanker & heavy lift aircraft

MiG-29 said:

Fact number one Y-20 flies with russian engines and China did a large order of those same engines.

Fact two C919 has at this moment a Soviet style market, mostly Chinese airliners are buying the product.

Reality number one, if Y-20 is only bought by China with 0 export market, the aircraft is unprofitable, why? let me remind you military aircraft do not represent a gain if they are financed by a government that also buys it.

Why the Soviet Union bankrupted ? simple weapons are only expenses, why Russia only exported during the 1990s and most of the 2000-2010 decade? simple the Russian government was unwilling to have expenses so Russian manufacturers went for profits.

Is Chinaa wealthy nation? reality 2, No China has still hundreds of millions of people with a low income, and with still standards of living lower than all western developed nation and still lower than even most emerging markets.

Does China needs to expend money in social programs?
Yes of course, so buying Y-20 for PLAAF does not mean any improvement of the quality of living for the Chinese citizens as the Soviet Citizens did not get inprovement for having a powerful military machine.

So does China need to export? yes they do

Why joint ventures are important simple it opens new markets to your products?
Why western and Japanese manufactures have joint ventures with Chinese firms in China? to open the Chinese market.

why western engine manufacturers cooperate within them selves?

same reason lower risks, costs in R&D and open new markets

The Engine Alliance, a 50/50 joint venture between GE Aviation and P&W, was formed to produce an engine for the Airbus A380. The Engine Alliance competes directly with Rolls-Royce for A380 engine business and holds a roughly equal market share with Rolls-Royce


International Aero Engines AG, a consortium comprised of P&W, Rolls-Royce, German engine manufacturer MTU Aero Engines GmbH and the Japanese Aero Engines Corporation, produces the V2500 engine for use in the Airbus A319/A320/A321 aircraft.

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Fact is China needs to develop an independent Air Transport capability for 2 reasons.

(1) Russia is has proven to be an unreliable supplier as proven by the il-76 debacle.
(2) US cannot be counted to provide humanitarian assistance to China when it matters most as proven during the Sichuan Earthquake by her refusal to provide parts to Chinese Black Hawk Helicopters.

MiG-29 said:

Fact number one Y-20 flies with russian engines and China did a large order of those same engines.

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While that is true, it is also a fact that Russian engine is merely a temporary solution on the Y-20. Moreover, China and Russia did not sign any deal to joinly develop the Y-20. Hence, unlike an Airbus, the Y-20 is not a joint venture.

MiG-29 said:

Fact two C919 has at this moment a Soviet style market, mostly Chinese airliners are buying the product.

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This is completely wrong. C919 will not have a Soviet market. Chinese airlines operate under a market economy, not a control economy. Under a market economy, these airlines choose whatever aircraft they see most profitable. The C919 does not have any advantage over its western competitors, hence Chinese airlines have no incentive to buy the aircraft. In short, the C919 has no market. The aircraft will be a flop just like IL-96 and Tu-204.

MiG-29 said:

Reality number one, if Y-20 is only bought by China with 0 export market, the aircraft is unprofitable, why? let me remind you military aircraft do not represent a gain if they are financed by a government that also buys it.

Why the Soviet Union bankrupted ? simple weapons are only expenses, why Russia only exported during the 1990s and most of the 2000-2010 decade? simple the Russian government was unwilling to have expenses so Russian manufacturers went for profits.

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The simple reality is that Y-20 is created so as to enable China to be self-sufficient in strategic transport. It is not mean to be profitable, just like how the C-5 is not created for profit. Military aircraft are first and foremost made for military purpose, not economical purpose.

MiG-29 said:

Is Chinaa wealthy nation? reality 2, No China has still hundreds of millions of people with a low income, and with still standards of living lower than all western developed nation and still lower than even most emerging markets.

Does China needs to expend money in social programs?
Yes of course, so buying Y-20 for PLAAF does not mean any improvement of the quality of living for the Chinese citizens as the Soviet Citizens did not get inprovement for having a powerful military machine.

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The Y-20 is a miliitary transport to enable China to move its troops from one location to another, without relying on any foreign assistance. The aircraft is not made for lifting people out of proverty.

MiG-29 said:

So does China need to export? yes they do

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Firstly, with plenty of other products to export, China has no need to export the Y-20. Secondly, nations that have money to buy military transports will not go for Chinese made aircraft. Even if China wants to sell, there won't be anyone to buy.

MiG-29 said:

Why joint ventures are important simple it opens new markets to your products?
Why western and Japanese manufactures have joint ventures with Chinese firms in China? to open the Chinese market.

why western engine manufacturers cooperate within them selves?

same reason lower risks, costs in R&D and open new markets

The Engine Alliance, a 50/50 joint venture between GE Aviation and P&W, was formed to produce an engine for the Airbus A380. The Engine Alliance competes directly with Rolls-Royce for A380 engine business and holds a roughly equal market share with Rolls-Royce


International Aero Engines AG, a consortium comprised of P&W, Rolls-Royce, German engine manufacturer MTU Aero Engines GmbH and the Japanese Aero Engines Corporation, produces the V2500 engine for use in the Airbus A319/A320/A321 aircraft.

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Once again, civilian market doesn't apply to the Y-20 since this aircraft is made only for PLAAF. Saying how China should do more joint ventures isn't going to change the reality of how Y-20 isn't a joint venture.

As to your examples of western companies establishing joint ventures with Chinese ones, they worked for those companies because there was no competitor in China when these joint ventures were established. The same tactic isn't going to work for Chinese and Russian aircraft for two reasons. First, the west is already self sufficient in aircraft making with western companies. Second, neither China or Russia is up to par in aerospace technologies when compared to the west. Therefore, the west has no need to do jointly develop aircraft with China or Russia.

Note that in your own examples, western engine manufactures cooperate with themselves. They do not cooperate with Chinese or Russian companies. The west will not treat China as equal until China proves itself to be just as capable. China can only rely on itself to prove that. When China becomes just as capable, the country would have achieved self sufficiency and have no need for joint ventures.

Lion said:

We don't rule out the possibility of joint venture as demonstrated in Z-15 and AC313 helo.

But for Y-20 is too late. It will be a full domestic product. WS-20 engine already declared in the pipeline. I do see Y-20 as a strategic project which CCP can afford to loses money in this project. It do benefit the civilian with such huge plane involve in overseas evacuation and natural disaster help out. Just like space station which I believe will be very costly and doesn't learn much profit. Still it goes on.

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Maybe it is true what you say it might be late, but as long WS-20 is not fitted, it will use Russian engines as long as it uses, it is a joint venture since the russians are acting as providers.

jobjed said:

His point wasn't that the C919 can't sell overseas. His point was that without certification, the plane wouldn't even be allowed to fly, AT ALL, over Europe/North America. With Russian parts, the plane wouldn't be granted as easy certification by the European and North American agencies.

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Look exportability has to do more with price, benefits to the local companies and quality.

If you look at An-124 and An-225, they are used by NATO and western companies due to the quality of the product.

The nationality of the product does not matter as long you get very big advantages in price, benefits to local companies and quality.

To put it in few words Y-20 can be exported as long as it has excellent quality to out compete a western, Russian or Brazilian rival.

However An-124 and An-225 are very special cases since they are kind of unique aircraft due to their huge size with their only rivals are C-5 and perhaps B-747.

Price is very important, for that reason western companies get suppliers from different nations and even design parts in emerging markets like Russia or Mexico.
More than
400 engineers from leading Russian companies helped Boeing to design part of
the complex nose section (14 meters long), struts and control surfaces for the
787 wing.


So the west is reducing cost too.

Benefits to the local companies are very important, B-787 gives benefits to several nations, ranging from Japan, England, Italy, south korea, Sweden, France since they manufacture some parts of the jet are build in those countries.

For such a reason aircraft are build in joint ventures, MTA promises Indian money with indian market to Illyushin and tech transfer to india.

Airbus for a reason also fits american engines to their jets and Boeing does the same

MiG-29 said:

Maybe it is true what you say it might be late, but as long WS-20 is not fitted, it will use Russian engines as long as it uses, it is a joint venture since the russians are acting as providers.

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The Y-20 is not a joint venture. According to Businessdictionary.com, it is a "New firm formed to achieve specific objectives of a partnership like temporary arrangement between two or more firms. JVs are advantageous as a risk reducing mechanism in new-market penetration, and in pooling of resource for large projects." The Russians are a key supplier, no doubt, but are not joint venture partner.

t2contra said:

The Y-20 is not a joint venture. According to Businessdictionary.com, it is a "New firm formed to achieve specific objectives of a partnership like temporary arrangement between two or more firms. JVs are advantageous as a risk reducing mechanism in new-market penetration, and in pooling of resource for large projects." The Russians are a key supplier, no doubt, but are not joint venture partner.

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You are right, they are not properly a joint venture, hoiwever Y-20 is now a global product

Today aviation is that, globalized.

To give you an example, when you think in providers you hardly think in small firms.

Frisa for example is almost unknown in aviation circles that are not very specialized

However see this

This company from Mexico is a key supplier in jet engines that almost all Prat and Whitney engine have parts made by FRISA

see

Frisa Forjados, a global supplier of seamless rolled rings based in Monterrey, Mexico, signed a new long-term agreement valued at more than $150 million with Pratt & Whitney, a unit of United Technologies Corp. Under the agreement, Frisa will supply forged rings and casings for the PurePower® family of Geared Turbofan™ jet engines

why pratt & whitney gets a Mexican supplier? answer cheapen up costs.

Do you think the US has companies that can do that job?
answer yes it has the USA has american companies that can do that job .
But the reason for that is globalization forces companies to stablish alliances.


Y-20 as long as it has Russsian engines it has a key russian supplier, plus is possibe other subsystems are Russian.

Since C919 has not Chinese sub-systems.


When Pratt and Whitney sells an engine it sells it as Pratt and whittney, not like Frisa.

But Frisa is benefiting from every single engine Pratt & whitney sells.


Russia is the same, the answer is Y-20 is also another global product and will have stiff competition from western firms since other emrging markets are being recruited to cheapen up western aircraft

If I may add, there is no 100% indigenous product nowadays, be it aircraft, ships, radars, etc etc. If you tear open any system with electronic boards installed, fact is... you will find components that came from all over the world.

Price is not the only thing out there, if any of you think that price is the only factor (to cheapen stuff if that is the word) then you are looking at things that are too narrow... and simple. Other factors like reliability, politics, etc, plays a huge part too. Plus some of the component is better make by another company then own self, there is no point reinventing the wheel when it is simpler to just buy from the shelves and dump that stuff into your subsystem.

However, to think that by using a particular components, however big that component is, means that the system is a joint venture between two companies (two nations) are simply hilarious.

MiG-29 said:

You arfe right, they are not properly a joint venture, hoiwever Y-20 is now a global product.

Today aviation is that, globalized.

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That is something no one here would disagree. Boeing and Airbus planes have inputs from all over the world but the Boeing do have have have joint ventures with their Japanese lavatory suppliers and GE. Boeing are free to source from Rolls Royce. But in a joint venture, if Boeing sources from Rolls Royce, GE will have a share of profits from selling the planes. I will want to make it clear that the term joint venture should not be used as it causes distortion.

MiG-29 said:

In my opinion, i think the Chinese are going for two goals.
The strategic one, which is make a pure domestic aircraft regardless of its exportabiliy and the global one which is get the skills to get enough bargain power in joint ventures.


Global aircraft manufacturers are becoming not any more pure national brands, in fact G&E or Pratt and Whitney are brands that do already a lot of out sourcing, Boeing does the same.

So sooner or later China will do the same.

C919 is an example, many of its sub-systems are not chinese, in the case of Y-20 i do not think only the engines are Russian, since in the case of C919 many sub-systems are not chinese.

If you consider Y-20 also carries troops, then it has similar requirements to an airliner, so is unlikely Y-20 will have all the sub-systems Chinese and C919 won`t.

Today many aircraft are not national projects, B-787 is not american, but an international program, lead by an american company true but where people of many nations are part of.

To give you a better idea. why american companies outsource? simple, to reduce costs, so even if Y-20 or C919 compete with american, Brazilian or European products since Embraer, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Garret, RR or GE outsource the price of equivalent western products is cheapening up.

So my whole point was do not surprise if China does joint ventures because it is a normal practice these days

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That's where you are wrong. In China, civilian products can use a lot of international suppliers, but military products always have the goal of achieving 100% indigenous production. Even in the case of engine, they are developing WS-18 and WS-20, so that by the time mass production starts, they can use domestically produced engines. China is generally distrustful toward foreigners when it comes to military products. Y-20 and C-919 are two different projects. One is head up by COMAC based in Shanghai and the other is by SAC based in Xi'an.

You have no support that Y-20 uses anything from abroad other than the engine. And in fact, Western companies are not allowed to help Chinese military programs due to embargo. And as we've seen, Russia and Ukraine have no problem telling the public how much they are helping China in their military project. So if they are really supplying more than just engine in the beginning stage, we would know about it by now. I've read many articles from Kanwa, who interviews all the Russian miiltary industrial complex and have seen no support on this.

Whether you agree with my conclusion or not, I suggest that you at least believe what I say about China being distrustful toward foreigners when it comes to military products.

tphuang said:

That's where you are wrong. In China, civilian products can use a lot of international suppliers, but military products always have the goal of achieving 100% indigenous production. Even in the case of engine, they are developing WS-18 and WS-20, so that by the time mass production starts, they can use domestically produced engines. China is generally distrustful toward foreigners when it comes to military products. Y-20 and C-919 are two different projects. One is head up by COMAC based in Shanghai and the other is by SAC based in Xi'an.

You have no support that Y-20 uses anything from abroad other than the engine. And in fact, Western companies are not allowed to help Chinese military programs due to embargo. And as we've seen, Russia and Ukraine have no problem telling the public how much they are helping China in their military project. So if they are really supplying more than just engine in the beginning stage, we would know about it by now. I've read many articles from Kanwa, who interviews all the Russian miiltary industrial complex and have seen no support on this.

Whether you agree with my conclusion or not, I suggest that you at least believe what I say about China being distrustful toward foreigners when it comes to military products.

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When i said the Russians might provide sub-system i am not affirming any thing, i am just guessing.
However consider the Russians do not say everything they know about Chinese programs.
They always say what China allows them or after many years.