China's strategy in Korean peninsula

To continue with the thoughts in my last point, I don't think "whether or not a unified Korea is good for China" should be the question.

The question for China is how to establish a new geopolitical environment with Korea so that Korea, in whatever condition they might be, would stay friendly with China.

vesicles said:

No friendship is forever. Likewise, no rivalry is forever. Those who are friends today might become bitter enemies tomorrow and vice versa. So I don't think anyone should make decisions based on today's geopolitical conditions. These conditions change in a whim.

On the other had, interests are forever. A giant nation like China or the US, should think about how to foster a future geopolitical environment that potentially encourages friendship and collaboration. China's ambitious One Road One Belt project is actually an excellent example of this type of thinking. Don't be so near-sighted about what is happening today. Think about what could happen 100 years from now and how one can "shape the future".

I know this sounds ambitious and even idealistic. However, superpowers with immense resources should think big.

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I agree with you, China was very much US's ally during cold war because of USSR, now that USSR is gone, China is challenging US, US is now helping to build up India to counter China, but one day if India gets strong enough, its possible India will also seek to evict US Navy out of India ocean lol. So everyone is playing the power balance game.

But I think there are some rule of thumbs that one can determine who to support who not to support to prevent them from biting you back in the future.

For example, don't give full support nations that have potential to became superpower like China, Russia, India, Iran, Brazil who can be your friend today but rival tomorrow. On the other hand, it should be safe to support smaller nations who had no superpower history, or inferior culture like trait like laziness, deep ethic/religious divide, unhealthy mind set etc.. as they have less chance to get their act together and became a threat.

And, its also much safer to support nations who are not bordering you, or support smaller nations who have problems with another big nation just like you, because you will never be their primarily threat etc... just something of my head.

And yes, the Belt and Road is a good idea, I think if successful its going to bury a lot of conflicts and rebuild a new world order, but that don't mean you cant play power balance game at same time.

vesicles said:

The question for China is how to establish a secured border with Korea so that Korea, in whatever condition they might be, would stay friendly with China.

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Korea was very friendly with China during Ming, Qing, that is well over 500 years, what was the condition back then?

Chinese power was overwhelming, China providing security benefit to Korea, Chinese provide culture and economy benefit to Korea. Korean look up to China.

Reestablish that, let Korea and Vietnam and Japan respect you... truly respect you, its the day you reestablish the sino-centric Asia order, is the day Korea will be friendly with China.

sanblvd said:

Korea was very friendly with China during Ming, Qing, that is well over 500 years, what was the condition back then?

Chinese power was overwhelming, China providing security benefit to Korea, Chinese provide culture and economy benefit to Korea. Korean look up to China.

Reestablish that, let Korea and Vietnam and Japan respect you... truly respect you, its the day you reestablish the sino-centric Asia order, is the day Korea will be friendly with China.

Click to expand...

Yep! Being strong is key.

sanblvd said:

Korea was very friendly with China during Ming, Qing, that is well over 500 years, what was the condition back then?

Chinese power was overwhelming, China providing security benefit to Korea, Chinese provide culture and economy benefit to Korea. Korean look up to China.

Reestablish that, let Korea and Vietnam and Japan respect you... truly respect you, its the day you reestablish the sino-centric Asia order, is the day Korea will be friendly with China.

Click to expand...

And what is the key to overwhelming Chinese power (soft & hard) and the respect it will engender?

A hi-tech China with a prosperous population, which means an economy some 4x larger than the USA.

That would almost certainly ensure that any unified Korea would take Chinese interests into account first.

Also without saying, that US bases needs to be gone by then.

vesicles said:

No friendship is forever. Likewise, no rivalry is forever. Those who are friends today might become bitter enemies tomorrow and vice versa. So I don't think anyone should make strategic decisions based on today's geopolitical conditions. These conditions change in a whim.

On the other had, interests are forever. A giant nation like China or the US, should think about how to foster a future geopolitical environment that potentially encourages friendship and collaboration. China's ambitious One Road One Belt project is actually an excellent example of this type of thinking. Don't be so near-sighted about what is happening today. Think about what could happen 100 years from now and how one can "shape the future".

I know this sounds ambitious and even idealistic. However, superpowers with immense resources should think big.

Click to expand...

A good example is the US-Mexico relationship.

Mexico has historically had an antagonistic relationship with the USA. But in the face of the overwhelming influence of the US, in the past 30 years they deliberately remodelled themselves on the US example and also buried their grievances.

And yes. What sort of Pax Sinica do we want to see in the future?

sanblvd said:

Also without saying, that US bases needs to be gone by then.

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Yes, they will naturally go.

In the case of a reunified Korea in a liberal trade and investment environment, it would share a land border with a developed China which would have a population and economy almost 20x bigger.

If I look at the similarities and differences between the economic relationship between the UK and Europe, I reckon at least 70% of Korea's trade would be with China.

And such an economic relationship is incompatible with the presence of US bases on Korean soil.

AndrewS said:

A good example is the US-Mexico relationship.

Mexico has historically had an antagonistic relationship with the USA. But in the face of the overwhelming influence of the US, in the past 30 years they deliberately remodelled themselves on the US example and also buried their grievances.

And yes. What sort of Pax Sinica do we want to see in the future?

Click to expand...

That's right, and it was very stupid for Trump to piss off Mexico... I mean seriously, US have the easiest geopolitics situation IN THE WORLD, it border Canada north, which might as well as be America Junior, and a weak Mexico at South, which might be a threat in far future to US due to its demography, and of course, Mexico has deep historical grievances over the US Mexican war which US took away 2/3 of Mexico land, so its really in US's best interest to pacify Mexico, to make peace with it, to integrate it with US interest to guarantee US long term security.... but nooooo, Trump want to build the stupid wall, call them rapist and criminals.

Anway, what kind of Pax Sinica? I think the best ways is probably look to the past, you will mostly have a peaceful trade relationship with a bit of tributary relationship build in it. Nation all around China and Asia will acknowledge Chinese dominance and further originate their domestic policy and foreign policy with China's consideration, in return China is going provide security interest, favorable trade relationships as well as a manufacturer supply chain that integrate their economy with China's. China will also playing peacemaker and mediation role in their domestic politics etc...

I know for sure will be a lot more peaceful than the way Europeans established their new world order, because Asian nation knows that histrionically China was never a savage conquering nation, and I suspect this why China literally took control of the entire of SCS without firing a shot so far.

US built a hegemony over the Latin American countries since 1823 and used that hegemony to wantonly interfere in those countries. As one example amongst many US Marines removed the elected president of Guatemala Arbenz Guzman in 1954 and replaced him with a military dictatorship - that continued for dozens of years and murdered some two hundred thousand peasants - not in the interest of US but in the interest of the banana company that was known as the Green Monster. China has seen the enmity engendered by that policy and has declared a policy of non-interference that should let existing historical enmity die out as most of such historical enmity died out in Europe.