China's strategy in Korean peninsula


taxiya

Major
Registered Member
Looks like Kim Jong Un is looking for some advice before his summit with Donald J. Trump

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Two things I think may be on the table:
  1. Kim to inform Xi about the recent NK/SK summit. President Moon must have said things and passed something from Trump. Kim want to share and coordinate with Xi before the possible summit with Trump.
  2. Trump said something "tough" recently (few days ago), Kim may need some advice on his measured reaction. A reaction that does not show weakness, but neither fueling the fire (therefor derail the track). Once committed and determined to seek a settlement, Kim will act much less reckless (he was NOT really reckless before either).
 

plawolf

Brigadier
Kim flew across international boarders, that must be a first for a NK head of state?

Could it signify that this was a relatively short noticed meeting, perhaps called for in light of Trump’s threatened, and ultimately delivered threat to trash the Iran accord?

NK must be wondering how much American promises are worth when they go back on their word so easily.

Given this climate, I think NK will be pushing for concrete actions it can see happen, and which are hard to roll back.

I mean, any American promises to stop war games is pretty much meaningless as they can organise one any time they want. Same for lifting of sanctions as the Iran deal is literally proving. The only real concrete concession the US can offer at this point is troop withdrawal and base closures. But that is hardly going to be on the table given China has always been the main reason for the continued US military presence.

But given that I always thought these talks were a convenient stalling tactic by NK, I don’t really think the Iran deal will have that much fundamental impact since Kim will never ever give up his nukes in any case.

This has always been able Kim seeing how much he can buy with stopping provocative weapons tests. He won’t even slow development in the background. And when he has made decent progress and needs to test that and/or remind the world of his power, Kim will find something to get mad about and conduct more tests in ‘retaliation’.

The best hope is that NK develops an actual nuclear strike capability, which gives Mim enough assurance that the Us will no longer try to regime change him that he can start scaling back military spending to focus more on economic development and reforms.

Once NK is much more invested in the world, and actually start having things worthwhile to loose from cutting itself off again, it will probably have a far more moderating and calming influence on NK than any number of military exercises and colourful twitter threats.
 

advill

Junior Member
Recent events with Trump toning down his rhetoric, & Kim showing his accommodating behaviour could be beneficial for impending talks between the 2 leaders soon. My personal belief is that President Xi's pragmatic & good advice to Kim played an important part in the latter's willingness to tone down & show that he too can be diplomatic. Hopefully, we could eventually see the light at the end of the tunnel for the benefit of the Korean people, both North & South. China's very recent diplomatic moves for Chinese PM to meet Japanese PM Abe & South Korean Moon in Tokyo are exemplary. They have reportedly agreed on important issues: (1) Mutually beneficial trade between China, Japan, & South Korea (2) Security i.e. establishment of a hot line between the Japanese & Chinese Navies to avoid confrontation off Daioyu/Senkaku Islands, & (3) Impending denuclearization of the Korean Peninsular. The use of SMART (Problem Solving) Power is ideal for all parties concerned. Let there be Peace & Progress in our East Asian Region.
 
now I read
China, South Korea agree to enhance mutual trust, cooperation
Xinhua| 2018-05-09 21:31:58
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Chinese Premier Li Keqiang met with South Korean President Moon Jae-in in Tokyo on Wednesday, vowing to enhance political mutual trust and win-win cooperation.

Calling the two countries close neighbors and important cooperation partners, Li said China hopes to enhance strategic communication and political trust with South Korea, expand win-win cooperation and promote further easing of regional situation.

He called on South Korea to properly handle the issue regarding the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system.

The two countries should synergize their development strategies and enhance cooperation in various areas, Li said.

The 7th China-Japan-South Korea leaders' meeting, held earlier on Wednesday in Tokyo, had reached many new consensuses on boosting cooperation, maintaining regional stability and facilitating regional development, Li said.

China will take over the presidency of the trilateral cooperation, he said, vowing to work closely with Japan and South Korea to cement trust and meet each other halfway to boost trilateral cooperation as well as regional integration.H Li congratulated the success of the recent inter-Korean summit between Moon and top leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) Kim Jong Un.

He welcomed the return of the nuclear issue on Korean Peninsula to the track of dialogue and spoke highly of the efforts made by South Korea.

Such a situation has not come by easily, he said, urging all parties concerned to seize the opportunity, stick to the right direction of maintaining dialogue and improving relations, and make efforts for a political settlement of the peninsula issue and a lasting peace on the peninsula.

"China will continue to play a constructive role in this regard," he said.

Moon extended congratulations on the positive results scored by the trilateral meeting.

He appreciated China's strong support and cooperation for the inter-Korea summit and hoped for continued full support from China for the planned meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un and for the process of realizing peace in the peninsula.

This year marks the 10th anniversary of the establishment of the China-South Korea strategic cooperative partnership and the relations between the two countries have been restored and normalized, said Moon.

He hoped that the two sides could maintain high-level exchanges, consolidate political mutual trust, and advance pragmatic cooperation, so as to promote new progress in bilateral relations.
 
Kim flew across international boarders, that must be a first for a NK head of state?

Could it signify that this was a relatively short noticed meeting, perhaps called for in light of Trump’s threatened, and ultimately delivered threat to trash the Iran accord?

NK must be wondering how much American promises are worth when they go back on their word so easily.

Given this climate, I think NK will be pushing for concrete actions it can see happen, and which are hard to roll back.

I mean, any American promises to stop war games is pretty much meaningless as they can organise one any time they want. Same for lifting of sanctions as the Iran deal is literally proving. The only real concrete concession the US can offer at this point is troop withdrawal and base closures. But that is hardly going to be on the table given China has always been the main reason for the continued US military presence.

But given that I always thought these talks were a convenient stalling tactic by NK, I don’t really think the Iran deal will have that much fundamental impact since Kim will never ever give up his nukes in any case.

This has always been able Kim seeing how much he can buy with stopping provocative weapons tests. He won’t even slow development in the background. And when he has made decent progress and needs to test that and/or remind the world of his power, Kim will find something to get mad about and conduct more tests in ‘retaliation’.

The best hope is that NK develops an actual nuclear strike capability, which gives Mim enough assurance that the Us will no longer try to regime change him that he can start scaling back military spending to focus more on economic development and reforms.

Once NK is much more invested in the world, and actually start having things worthwhile to loose from cutting itself off again, it will probably have a far more moderating and calming influence on NK than any number of military exercises and colourful twitter threats.
If NK develops an actual robust nuclear strike capability (I presume you're talking about reaching the continental US) then SK, Japan, and/or Taiwan developing their own nuclear capability may be back in the offing. The US military alliances with, nuclear umbrella over, and/or presence in these countries would also only be strengthened. This would merely accelerate an all-around arms race including conventional capabilities and missile defense systems where NK would likely lose and be in an even more vulnerable position than it is now while it continues to be economically and politically sanctioned.

Currently the NK situation is heading towards an Iran nuclear deal equivalent, which is the only scenario where NK as with Iran stands to benefit from the rest of the international community being on their side for business and development. While the very concept is under threat from US hegemonic desires and in the shadow of US-China rivalry in the case of NK it benefits from not having the extreme ethnic, ideological rivalries and ongoing hot conflicts present in the case of Iran. NK is also not as inherently isolated as Iran is, its choice of behavior can reverse much of its current artificial isolation.
 
now I read
Roundup: DPRK announces dismantling of nuclear test site
Xinhua 2018-05-12 23:46:32
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The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) announced Saturday that it will hold a ceremony for the dismantling of its nuclear test site on May 23-25, taking a step forward towards the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

"In accordance with the decision of the Third Plenary Meeting of the Seventh Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK), the Nuclear Weapon Institute and other concerned institutions are taking technical measures to dismantle the northern nuclear test ground of the DPRK in order to ensure transparency of discontinuance of the nuclear test," the Foreign Ministry said in a statement published by the official Korean Central News Agency.

"A ceremony for dismantling the nuclear test ground is now scheduled between May 23 and May 25, depending on weather condition," the statement said.

The ruling WPK said that the country will close its nuclear test ground and suspend missile tests in order to concentrate all the nation's efforts on economic construction, during a plenary session chaired by the country's top leader Kim Jong Un last month.

Pyongyang pledged to achieve complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula at a summit between Kim and South Korean President Moon Jae-in in the truce village Panmunjom on April 27.

The Blue House of South Korea said on April 29 that during the summit, Kim told Moon that he will shut down the nuclear test site and show the process to the world.

Pyongyang said Saturday that it will detonate explosives in all tunnels of the test ground, completely block entrances, remove all observation facilities, research institutes and structures of guard units at the test-facility.

"In parallel with dismantlement of the nuclear test ground, guards and researchers will be withdrawn and the surrounding area of the test ground be completely closed," the statement said.

Foreign journalists will be allowed to conduct on-location coverage, which the Foreign Ministry says will show transparency.

"In due consideration of small space of the test ground, journalists from other countries will be confined to those from China, Russia, the United States, the United Kingdom and South Korea," said the statement.

"All international journalists will be provided with a charter flight from Beijing to Wonsan," it said.

Saturday's announcement came ahead of a scheduled summit between Kim and U.S. President Donald Trump in Singapore on June 12.

Trump said Thursday that "The highly anticipated meeting between Kim Jong Un and myself will take place in Singapore on June 12th."

"We will both try to make it a very special moment for World Peace!" Trump said.

Trumps remarks came on the heels of the DPRK's release of three detained U.S. citizens, who came back with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo early Thursday after his visit to Pyongyang in preparation for the Trump-Kim summit.
 
now I read
Opinion: What does DPRK mean by dismantling nuclear facilities?
2018-05-13 13:45 GMT+8
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The leader of DPRK, Kim Jong Un, has scheduled the dismantlement of its nuclear bomb test site for sometime between May 23 and 25. Kim has pledged to discontinue nuclear tests, marking a step forward towards the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

DPRK state news service KCNA reported on May 12 that all tunnels at the Punggye-ri nuclear test ground will be collapsed with explosions. Entrances will be blocked, and all observation facilities, research buildings and security posts will be removed. The agency also said journalists will be invited to ensure transparency.

Donald Trump has tweeted thanks to the DPRK for its plan to destroy its nuclear test site, calling it "a very smart and gracious gesture."

Pyongyang announced the date for the dismantlement a month prior to Kim Jong Un's meeting with Trump in Singapore on June 12. It's widely seen as progress in the DPRK nuclear issue. But skeptics point out that Kim has yet to make any public commitment to give up his arsenal, which includes missiles capable of reaching the US. Washington says it's seeking "complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization" of the DPRK and stresses that verification will be key.

For DPRK, inviting foreign journalists to the highly sensitive military site to observe its shutdown may be another gesture of goodwill before the summit, as is has the just-released three American citizens, who were described as hostages by Donald Trump.

However, many analysts are skeptical that Kim, who only said the facilities were shut down because Pyongyang had completed developing nuclear weapons and there was no more need to conduct tests, will really give up his hard-won prize even for extremely generous economic assistance.

"The fate of autocrats like Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi, who gave up their weapons programs only to be toppled in Western-backed military actions, has been noted in Pyongyang," The Guardian pointed out.

"Trump’s decision to pull out of the nuclear agreement his predecessor Barack Obama forged with Iran may also give Kim pause for thought about the durability of any deal he makes with a US president."

“It looks like a drama before the summit,” Stephen Nagy, an assistant professor at Tokyo’s International Christian University, told Deutsche Welle. "The two sides hope to enter the negotiations with the strongest position. Each has its own priorities for different issues. North Korea regards maintaining the survival of the regime as its basic position. And we must not forget what they are doing all these years. They are very good at this, and they are very likely to ask for prices, but they still go their own way.”

Nagy believes that Kim Jong Un has recently used the "being soft" strategy very skillfully. He has twice visited China and met with Chinese President Xi Jinping. He also held a historic meeting with South Korean President Moon Jae-in. DPRK's enchantment offensive has begun to bear fruit. Not only has the Pyongyang regime been recognized, but both South Korea and China are also considering whether to ease the sanctions.

However, in Nagy’s opinion, Kim Jong Un has an intention beyond that. He will also try to obtain more returns from the international community by announcing his abandonment of the nuclear weapons program. “He may ask the United States and South Korea to cancel the joint military exercise. The United States may agree to change the exercise location to other areas far from the demilitarized zone, and he will also demand more development assistance to develop the North Korean economy.” Besides, asking the international community to lift the sanctions will also be the price that Kim Jong Un could propose.

A day before the DPRK’s announcement of the dismantling of the nuclear site, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said, “If North Korea takes bold action to quickly denuclearize, the United States is prepared to work with North Korea to achieve prosperity on the par with our South Korean friends,” during a joint news conference with South Korea’s top diplomat.

It only takes one month to get to the Trump-Kim summit in June. At present, both parties are rushing to express their positions on some key issues and both governments have emphasized that this meeting may be the best opportunity for the Korean Peninsula issue to achieve a diplomatic breakthrough over the past 60 years and the good opportunity cannot be missed. However, whether security in northeast Asia can achieve a substantial breakthrough or not depends on how the US and DPRK leaders have reached a deal. We will wait and see.
 
now I read
China appreciates DPRK's efforts in pushing for denuclearization
Updated 2018-05-14 20:23 GMT+8
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The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK)'s decision to dismantle its nuclear test site is a sign that shows the country's goodwill in advancing the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, said Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Lu Kang on Monday.

DPRK's state media reported last Saturday that the dismantling of its nuclear test site will take place sometime between May 23 and 25 so as to uphold its previous pledge to discontinue nuclear tests.

The country’s central news agency also said the dismantling would involve collapsing all of the nuclear test ground's tunnels with explosives, blocking its entrances and removing all observation facilities, research buildings and security posts.

According to Lu, DPRK's olive branch will build mutual trust with all related parties and should be welcomed and supported by the international community.

US: 'Lift sanctions' if DPRK dismantles

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said US is willing to “lift sanctions” to pave the way for private American investment in DPRK’s energy, agriculture and infrastructure sectors if the country agrees to completely dismantle its nuclear weapons program, a move that would create economic prosperity that “will rival” that of the ROK.

“What Chairman Kim (Kim Jong Un) will get from America is our finest – our entrepreneurs, our risk takers, our capital providers. [...] They will get private capital that comes in. North Korea (DPRK) is desperately in need of energy [...] for their people. They are in great need of agricultural equipment and technology,” he said on CBS' "Face the Nation."

“We can create conditions for real economic prosperity for the DPRK people that will rival that of the South,” he added, claiming that the US is not going to use taxpayer dollars to help the country.

Chinese spokesperson Lu spoke highly about Pompeo's remarks, noting that solving the Korean Peninsula issue through dialogue is something that China has long been advocated.

Lu added that China encouraged all related parties to keep efforts in alleviating tensions of the Korean Peninsula.
 

taxiya

Major
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Source: Xinhua 2018-05-16 03:45:03

PYONGYANG, May 16 (Xinhua) -- In view of the recently provocative acts such as the Republic of Korea (ROK)-U.S. joint military exercises, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has no choice but to suspend high-level talks with the ROK planned for Wednesday, the official KCNA said on Wednesday.

The state media also said the United States should think twice about the fate of the DPRK-U.S. summit.
With Trump walked out the Iranian agreement in the background, NK does need more concrete actions than words from Trump to prove he mean what he say.
 

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