China's strategy in Korean peninsula

My point is simple : the export oritented development has very hard upper limits. Actualy in the long term the export driven phase of development will not help the country to be an advanced ecnonomy, but makes it more difficult to reach that stage.
trade surpluss means that the country created an industrial /service base that is not working for the benefit of the citizens , but rather than it makes stuff for someone overweas.


Say China makes a lot of stuff for the US market.
But the industrial profile that required by the US is not the same that the average chinese needs , and doesn't take into consideration China natrual resources / geographical constraints .


And finaly: exampel in NK the main problem with the development of the economy is not that they can't receive foreign managers, who can show the clear genius of the american mind and how to make machines, but the lack of owneership registry, enforcement, legal help for low cost taxation, business creation, law and contractual enforcement, fair and developed personal work/injury/transaction legal support .


The export oriented growth won't make these ingrediens, actualy it shift the day of reckoning to the future about the need to implement these.

But if you have these in place then the internal market, and the business dinamic will take care of the problems in the country wihout the need for FDI and JVs and trade.

The main issue that NK will face exapmle is connected to the new micro/small business registration, ownership structures, taxation and so on, not realy to that if they can register JVs with american companies in north korea, and to get the extremly clever US managers to show how to run a business : P


And finaly a trade surpluss will create a class of business owners who has a lot of foreign assets, and interested in that to form the given country politics to be friendly with the home country of the assets that they own.


So, if China accumulated a lot of trade surpluss then it has a lot of Chinese company owner who has many US assets, and want to convince the decision makers to take into consideration the interest of the US instead the interest of the average chinese.

That works in similar ways in both importing and exporting countries where those with a vested interest in trade become more advocates for their own trade interests than for their overall country's or fellow citizens' other interests. However that is only one factor among many that does not guarantee that either importing or exporting countries will have their other interests compromised. All this is also merely theoretical unlike my prior observation.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
That works in similar ways in both importing and exporting countries where those with a vested interest in trade become more advocates for their own trade interests than for their overall country's or fellow citizens' other interests. However that is only one factor among many that does not guarantee that either importing or exporting countries will have their other interests compromised. All this is also merely theoretical unlike my prior observation.
Agree, on its own the trade create interest too.

However the end result asset accumulation will be magnitude higher ,and unballanced in the case of trade deficit / surpluss.

If you run trade surpluss for decade(s) in the range of 5% GDP then the accumulated foreign assets will ammount to the 50% of anual GDP.
Means huge potion of the elite wealth will be in the assets of the given foreign country.


Like Russia and the oligarch.
 
now I read
China opposes Vancouver meeting on Korean Peninsula issue
Xinhua| 2018-01-16 21:22:56
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China on Tuesday again voiced opposition to a gathering in Vancouver of foreign ministers from 20 countries on security and stability on the Korean Peninsula.

Canada and the
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will co-host the meeting, scheduled for Tuesday, will discuss measures to exert maximum diplomatic as well as economic pressures on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (
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) to force it to end its nuclear and missile programs.

"Since this meeting does not have legitimacy or representativeness, China has opposed the meeting from the very beginning," Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang told a routine press briefing. "While countries are committed to finding a proper solution for the peaceful settlement of the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue, some parties hold such a meeting in the name of the so-called
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command during the Cold War era. We do not know what the purpose of convening such a meeting is."

He said that without participation of some of the most important direct parties to the nuclear issue, the Vancouver meeting had no legitimacy and was not representative.

The meeting, in which China's foreign minister will not participate, comes as the DPRK and the ROK have resumed talks after Pyongyang decided to join the PyeongChang Winter Olympics next month.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
My point is simple : the export oritented development has very hard upper limits. Actualy in the long term the export driven phase of development will not help the country to be an advanced ecnonomy, but makes it more difficult to reach that stage.
trade surpluss means that the country created an industrial /service base that is not working for the benefit of the citizens , but rather than it makes stuff for someone overweas.


Say China makes a lot of stuff for the US market.
But the industrial profile that required by the US is not the same that the average chinese needs , and doesn't take into consideration China natrual resources / geographical constraints .


And finaly: exampel in NK the main problem with the development of the economy is not that they can't receive foreign managers, who can show the clear genius of the american mind and how to make machines, but the lack of owneership registry, enforcement, legal help for low cost taxation, business creation, law and contractual enforcement, fair and developed personal work/injury/transaction legal support .


The export oriented growth won't make these ingrediens, actualy it shift the day of reckoning to the future about the need to implement these.

But if you have these in place then the internal market, and the business dinamic will take care of the problems in the country wihout the need for FDI and JVs and trade.

The main issue that NK will face exapmle is connected to the new micro/small business registration, ownership structures, taxation and so on, not realy to that if they can register JVs with american companies in north korea, and to get the extremly clever US managers to show how to run a business : P


And finaly a trade surpluss will create a class of business owners who has a lot of foreign assets, and interested in that to form the given country politics to be friendly with the home country of the assets that they own.


So, if China accumulated a lot of trade surpluss then it has a lot of Chinese company owner who has many US assets, and want to convince the decision makers to take into consideration the interest of the US instead the interest of the average chinese.

I don't agree with this export benefit a country by providing the masses with work and accumulating capital and expertise for further development of economy
it is well trodden path that many country follow Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, And Now China
How can China accumulate capital if it is not thru Export basically it exchange sweat for money

Export provide all those another benefit of export is the accumulation of experience dealing with marketing, building of infrastructure to support export like Communication, port, airport,

Export facilitate streamlining of regulation,

Not export does not only enrich few people it is a mean to impart marketing savy, product improvement and development of industry beside of course accumulating of capital

The problem is not with export but the failure of country not to develop further and increase the value added of the export good and at the same time substituting all the part that goes into the export with with domestic component of part

In case of China she did all the above with aplomb. Starting with climbing the ladder of technology instead of export cloth, shoe, pot and pan Now the largest component of Chinese export is electronic, electrical machinery etc
While at the same time she is now substituting the part from imported one into domestically produced part
China has trade balance with most country except with US because of trade restriction China can't buy the good she desire and not because of Chinese manipulation
The country that had deficit with china are US and Hongkong
China merchandise export partner.JPG

And china surplus compare to GDP is small
Current account balance as percent of GDP-China-US.JPG

And it is not China's fault but interference of free flow of investment and good in the name of security
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Those in the U.S. and Europe who are sounding alarm about Chinese purchases of their companies are obviously ignoring the basic laws of economics. The Chinese are simply recycling their current account surpluses in the form of capital outflows. Remember, the balance of payments has to balance: the sum of current and capital accounts has to be equal to zero.

The Chinese did not steal trillions of dollars in their trade surpluses. They earned them in an international trading system where the United States acquiesced in running systematic half-a-trillion dollars of annual trade deficits.

And NO IT IS NOT THE WEST that provide the investment in China it is mostly overseas Chinese and Asian country that invest the most in china. In fact US make only measly 4% of the cumulative investment in China from 1979-2016
FDI flow to China 1979-2016.JPG
 
Last edited:
Agree, on its own the trade create interest too.

However the end result asset accumulation will be magnitude higher ,and unballanced in the case of trade deficit / surpluss.

If you run trade surpluss for decade(s) in the range of 5% GDP then the accumulated foreign assets will ammount to the 50% of anual GDP.
Means huge potion of the elite wealth will be in the assets of the given foreign country.


Like Russia and the oligarch.

None of those things would necessarily happen, see Hendrik2000's post above for an example.
 
...

And NO IT IS NOT THE WEST that provide the investment in China it is mostly overseas Chinese and Asian country that invest the most in china. In fact US make only measly 4% of the cumulative investment in China from 1979-2016
View attachment 44892

This part of your post is misleading. The order of development and investment flowed from the West > Asian countries (Japan and "tigers") > China and value added goods flowed in the opposite direction.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
This part of your post is misleading. The order of development and investment flowed from the West > Asian countries (Japan and "tigers") > China and value added goods flowed in the opposite direction.

Where did you get that? because the table clearly did not said that. Check the table US cumulative investment is only 4%
It the overseas Chinese See Hongkong investment is almost 50% It does not mean the Hongkong people that invest. Many overseas Chinese From SEA use Hongkong shell company to invest in China since investment in China is hot potatoes because their native country will ask why do you invest there when we also need your investment?
The same with Cayman island
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
now I read
China opposes Vancouver meeting on Korean Peninsula issue
Xinhua| 2018-01-16 21:22:56
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Thanks for the first post since a long time that is not related to economy or trade-deficit- is- a-good-thing.

The opposition is quite obvious considering all participating countries of Vancouver meeting are participants of Korean war on the US side. It would be shockingly surprising if China and Russia does not oppose it. But neither does the meeting represent anything, it is 18 out of 193 (60 in 1950). It is a home party for Trump.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
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Why Outsourcing Won’t Work


Finally, we have for too long chased the illusion that we could induce Russia or China to pull our chestnuts out of the fire when over a decade of their policies shows that they blame Washington more than Pyongyang for this crisis and regard North Korea as an asset to their policy of reducing US power and presence in Asia. They may oppose a North Korea’s nuclear program because it allows Pyongyang to escape their control and conduct an independent policy that could trigger a war. But they have covertly and sometimes overtly abetted its proliferation for years and continue doing so even while supporting sanctions to curb North Korea’s independence.
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As this author wrote a decade ago, China has less leverage on North Korea and is less willing to deploy it than Washington continues to believe.
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This rings even truer today, as Kim Jong Un has failed to build a relationship with Xi Jinping. Moreover, China and Russia have steadily abetted North Korea’s proliferation and its violation of the UN sanctions regime.
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Nevertheless, the Trump administration continues to press China to exercise its economic leverage over the North and even occasionally threatens to punish Beijing on trade and economic issues if it does not do so. But Beijing regards these unilateral demands by senior US policymakers as an attempt to pressure the Chinese to throw a buffer state under a bus—or as a pretext for starting a crisis that could lead to war.
 
now noticed
Six Chinese Ships Covertly Aided North Korea. The U.S. Was Watching.

Updated Jan. 19, 2018
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Intelligence gathered by American officials provides what they say is detailed evidence of sanctions violations

Satellite photographs and other intelligence gathered by U.S. officials provide what they say is detailed evidence of at least six Chinese-owned or -operated cargo ships violating United Nations sanctions against North Korea.

The U.S. compiled the information from Asian waters as part of the Trump administration’s strategy to pressure North Korea into giving up its nuclear weapons and long-range missiles.

The effort identified the ships by name and tracked their movements. The ships either entered ports in North Korea and transported what U.S. officials concluded was illicit cargo to Russia and Vietnam or made ship-to-ship transfers at sea.

According to the U.S., which presented the information to a U.N. sanctions committee, the ships also made extensive maneuvers designed to disguise their violations of the U.N. sanctions. In August, the Security Council banned North Korean exports of coal, iron ore, lead and seafood, which have generated an estimated $1 billion a year in hard currency for North Korea.

A review by The Wall Street Journal of corporate records and shipping databases shows that the six vessels identified by the U.S. are owned or managed by Chinese companies or firms that are registered in Hong Kong and have shareholders who are Chinese nationals and have used addresses in mainland China.

In December, the
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to formally designate the six ships as sanctions violators. China resisted that request but allowed
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with no apparent links to Chinese companies to be blacklisted. The names of the four blacklisted ships were announced by the U.N., but the other six weren’t.

China’s foreign ministry said Beijing abides fully with Security Council resolutions and deals with violations in accordance with the law. “Any measure taken by the Security Council should be based upon conclusive evidence and facts,” the ministry told the Journal in a written statement.

The foreign ministry didn’t respond to questions about the six Chinese-owned or -operated cargo ships that were dropped from the blacklist.

The Chinese delegation to the U.N. provided the committee with no formal explanation of why China was willing to allow some ships to go on the list but not others. Some U.S. officials believe the goal was to avoid the embarrassment of ships with Chinese ties being found in breach of sanctions.

Chinese officials have investigated at least four of the six vessels, and several shipowners and managers have been questioned by officials from China’s state-security and foreign ministries, as well as local customs and maritime agencies, according to some of the people questioned.

At least one cargo-ship manager has been detained as part of a criminal investigation, said the manager’s son, a lawyer and the ship’s owner. They said the manager’s detention is likely due to involvement in trade with North Korea.

The ship’s manager hasn’t been formally charged with wrongdoing, the lawyer said. China’s foreign ministry and customs agency didn’t respond to questions about the matter.

Declassified intelligence reports, photos and maps shared with the U.N. by American officials asserted multiple instances of Chinese ships violating Security Council resolutions banning North Korean coal exports and ship-to-ship transfers of refined petroleum bound for North Korea. The Journal reviewed much of that evidence.

The U.S. said the Chinese-owned Glory Hope 1 was violating
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within days after it was passed in August.

The vessel crossed the Yellow Sea near North Korea under a Panamanian flag, entered North Korea’s Taedong River and then turned into the North Korean port of Songnim, according to the information presented to the U.N.

While approaching North Korean waters, the Glory Hope 1 turned off its Automatic Identification System, or AIS, a transmission device that discloses a ship’s position to other ships, satellites and land-based tracking systems.

Turning off AIS can increase the risk of collision at sea, though international maritime guidelines say ship captains may do so in case of pirates but must turn the device back on as soon the danger passes. A shipowner or operator could give an instruction to shut off the device and would likely know if it had been, according to shipping and sanctions experts.

“When AIS is off in a vast sea, you are basically invisible,” said Ioannis Sgouras, a veteran Greek captain of crude-oil carriers. “You can still be picked up by other ships on radar if you are in range, but they can’t tell the ship’s name, cargo or destination.”

U.S. intelligence officials used satellite photos to monitor the Glory Hope 1 as it took on a load of North Korean coal Aug. 7. The ship then proceeded toward the coast of China, with its AIS turned off.

Just as switching off the AIS beacon can disguise a ship’s movements, a vessel can advertise its location by switching on the transmission device, much like turning on a flashlight in a darkened room. Both techniques were essential for the Glory Hope 1 as it carried out its mission, according to the analysis submitted by the U.S. to the U.N. sanctions committee.

The ship’s crew activated the AIS tracking device as the Glory Hope 1 approached the Chinese port of Lianyungang on Aug. 15. Instead of entering the port, the vessel “loitered” offshore, information provided to the U.N. shows.

The U.S. suggested the stop was meant to make it look as if the Glory Hope 1 had gone there to take on Chinese cargo. For more than a week, the ship hugged the Chinese coast until it approached Cam Pha, Vietnam, where its tracker was turned off again.

A U.S. satellite photo provided to the U.N. sanctions committee shows the ship anchored and being unloaded Aug. 26 near the Vietnamese port.

The Glory Hope 1 is owned by a Chinese company and operated by Hong Kong-registered Glory Hope Trade Co., shipping databases and corporate records reviewed by the Journal show. Glory Hope Trade’s two shareholders are Chinese nationals with addresses in the eastern Chinese city of Nantong.

One of the shareholders, Lu Yuliang, has been detained by local authorities since late August, according to the vessel’s owner and Mr. Lu’s son, Lyu Cong. Mr. Lu hasn’t appeared in court, his son said.

“I think it is the coal from North Korea,” said Mr. Lyu, who called his father a scapegoat. A spokesman for the provincial government said authorities weren’t aware of the case and haven’t found any alleged sanctions violations. The ship’s other shareholder couldn’t be reached.

North Korea needs hard currency to sustain its military machine, maintain a privileged lifestyle for its elite and other forms of financial aid. U.S. officials say the regime’s revenue sources include cybercrime, remittances from workers abroad and illicit exports of North Korean anthracite coal, some of the purest in Asia.

“For many years, coal has been the center of gravity for North Korea’s revenue generation,” Marshall S. Billingslea, the assistant Treasury secretary for terrorist financing, told the House Foreign Affairs Committee in September.

A cargo ship of the Glory Hope 1’s size typically could carry as much as 5,500 tons of coal, which could be worth $1.5 million at market rates. North Korean coal hauled by the vessel almost certainly would have been sold at a discount. Ships that dare to transport illicit coal would likely get paid a substantial premium to standard shipping rates.

On Aug. 31, the Chinese-owned vessel Kai Xiang picked up its load of coal at Nampo, North Korea, with its tracking beacon off, according to the declassified intelligence provided to the U.N. sanctions committee. The ship then proceeded toward the Chinese coast and activated its AIS system on Sept. 4.

Two days later, the Kai Xiang stopped in Hong Kong and then went to Cam Pha, where American satellite photos show the ship being unloaded in anchorage at the Vietnamese port.

A senior executive at a Chinese contractor that handled safety management for the Kai Xiang said in an interview that the same ship also delivered North Korean coal to Vietnam in June 2017.

Because of the shipment, the company terminated its contract with the Kai Xiang in July, the executive said. At the time, the U.N. had capped North Korean coal exports at $400 million a year, or 7.5 million metric tons, whichever was lower. The Kai Xiang’s owner and shareholders couldn’t be reached.

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