China's Space Program Thread II
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
I think there's going to be a degree of disconnect between the two in terms of recognizing "existence of one doesn't limit the parameters of the other" and vice versa.
But if the focus of everyone is "does the existence of the production complex starting work = CZ-9 is absolutely, 100%, going to happen on the timeline that has been floated in past years" -- I agree it is most technically correct to say "we don't know".
.... But if we are interested in tracking indicators that would be part of the overall workup to CZ-9 as a project in the PRC space industry development method, one would be a fool to not recognize the production complex as being a major indicator that is now ticked off.
There are many variants of CZ-9 that very much could emerge; a reusable first stage probably being a base capability, with additional stages being reusable or expendable, with additional
I could also see higher capability variants emerging with upgraded variants of YF-215 in future, marginally increased base/diameter for additional engines, and so on.
In the medium term, the ability to execute on this will of course be rate limited by YF-215's progress as well (and also launch/fueling/production infrastructure overall), but a wildcard in terms of future variants may be the in house engineering and development teams. If they really put out CZ-12B in under 2 years from first design work to first launch, then the future state capability might be a lot more dynamic than we project, if bottlenecks can be resolved.
E.g.: just because the CZ-9 has taken a decade or so to evolve and reach where it is now, doesn't mean that the future variants of it will necessarily take that long.
Indeed, it would be interesting to have more info on the development time-line and the current state of the YF-215. It'd not be unexpected to have some early hiccups like what SpaceX's early Raptors has had, but hopefully when the YF-215s make their first flight we won't see the engine flame-outs on the first Super-Heavy's flight.
On the CZ-12B development, there's a post over at NasaSpaceFlight.com's CZ-12B maiden launch thread (in the Chinese Launches sub-forum) that links to, with English translation, to a CASC web article with fairly detailed descirptions (for lay-people) of some of the design choices for the rocket. Apparently the YF-102R was selected specifically over staged-combustion alternatives in order to speed development (post is by TheKutKu/TheRathalos(?)).
Last edited:
If I recall correctly (kinda big if, I haven't followed CN space scene closely at all. It's possible I'm misquoting)
Cute Orca (whom I consider even more reliable wrt CN space watching than PLA watching) has basically scoffed at the CZ-9 2030 launch date. He thinks the overall project isn't even close to being on track for that target
Cute Orca (whom I consider even more reliable wrt CN space watching than PLA watching) has basically scoffed at the CZ-9 2030 launch date. He thinks the overall project isn't even close to being on track for that target
Last edited:
the timeline quoted by different CNSA/CATL members is early 2030's not 2030..
in April this year state council presented the 15th five year plan regarding space and commercial space industry.
in that press conference Wang Qiong itself presented 15th five year plan. he is the deputy chief designer of the Chang'e 6 mission,
In terms of launch vehicles, my country will develop and successfully launch the Long March 9 heavy-lift launch vehicle, significantly enhancing its ability to access space.
apart from this, tender of LM9 assembly building issued and Hainan government also mentioned this. so the point is LM9 project actually kicked off this year. and it will be interesting to see how much time they will take and resolve bottlenecks.
Sorry, don't know much about Cute Orca/Whale. I'm not active on the Chinese internet save reading a few posts on the Weibo and XHS apps. However, if the person's sentiments were as related here, then it'd depend on when they were expressed. I agree that the 2030 time-line is only notional and depends on developmental progress. However, I'd also note that we first started seeing a greater level of activities with regard to CZ-10 around 2022-23 and now four years later we're expecting imminent first orbital launches by both the CZ-10B and CZ-10A; turning to CZ-9, we're now starting to see more commotions on this subject, so ... (caveat: past performance does not imply future return).
The planned ILRS modules are dependent on a super heavy launcher, so the CZ-9 has to exist, otherwise the entire future ILRS won't exist. And since the first ILRS missions are supposed to be launched in the early 2030s, that gives us an expected timeline for development.
Last edited:
AFAIK, these drawing (Except for the first one) are highly speculative and does not match any known official designs. It is doubtful whether any near future variants will look like this.
Officially CZ-9 with standard fairing is only 110m tall while the reusable CZ-9B is 95m. The booster itself from the looks may only be 45-50m tall. The latter two of the drawing shows a design with stretched boosters which is IMO unlikely in the near future given the initial CZ-9 design with YF215s can achieve a TWR at takeoff of 1.4 but any major stretch like the ones depicted would require far more powerful engines for it to be efficient.
?
Yes, of course they're speculative and not based off any "official" art lol.
I assumed it was obvious that the 15-16m fairing variant is trying to visualize what such a rocket could look like, based on the blueprints of the production facility in the last day or so that depicted a 15-16m payload fairing with an additional third stage, continuing from what was posted on post #8222 and #8224 last page.
I.e.: they're not trying to depict CZ-9 or CZ-9B, but rather a "CZ-9 with 15-16m fairing +/- third stage" variant which is not something that we've had any official art or concept drawings of.
I'm not sure why that is something which needs to be specified...