tender has already issued so factory build up won't take 5 more years. all recent interviews hinting towards early 2030's first flight.
China's Space Program Thread II
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
16m fairing size gave me a bit of a pause, a rudimentary comparison via spacelens
Another comp. by Chandler G. on Twitter/X
Another comp. by Chandler G. on Twitter/X
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To my understanding, the assembly building is a part of the purple zone, which should be completed by March of 2028. There is also going to be some engine test benches but that's going to take a year longer according to the plans. Full logistics and employee hostels and canteen will take till 2031 to be fully complete, but testing and maiden launch doesn't really need the full facility to be complete as long as the launch pad and fueling facility is ready.
Possible blueprints of the CZ-9 assembly factory has published on the Hainan gov' website. The factory has 100k m2 with a 85m tall gate. Through the blue print, we can peek some specs of the CZ-9. 10m diameter , has a 3 stages variant , fairings is huge with a diameter of 16m..
source - @raz_liu on twitter
source - @raz_liu on twitter
That's a pretty specific diameter. There must be some large habitats, (space solar?) arrays and spacecraft types currently in the design phase that they are fairly certain will require the extra volume. A wider payload bay allows them to launch large components completely pre-assembled or in sturdier segments.
but without state council approval they can't do anything. it means they somehow get indirect approval.
That's not really true, there are many semiprivate or fully private ventures by state companies like FC-31. We know CZ-9 has corporate approval from CATL, It's hard to tell how official and how high up that approval is as it is a SOE managed by the central government. It could also be like a soft approval with a wait and see how it goes stance.
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On the question of "project approval", it's a bit opaque to outsiders but I think it's generally analogous to the development process in the Chinese MIC sector for engines and weapon systems (pre-research stage, formal R&D stage, etc.) with formal project approval usually being granted or denied only after years (or decades) of work and the existence of substantial work-product. But I think the CZ-9 project is definitely nearing realization given that land for the VAB and associated buildings are being acquired and initial prep work is being done (and the fact that the local government is publicly talking about it). I'll just quote TheRatholos post #8,028 from Arpil of this year:
The reference to the CZ-9 being explicitly mentioned by sci/tech representatives as one of the goals during the 15th Five-Year-Plan is from the following link (also posted in this thread from back in April):
The 2030 date for the first flight of CZ-9 was mentioned in various PPT slides, see attached image from 2025(?). The version they want to launch by 2030 is likely the base CZ-9 with a reusable 1st stage; CZ-9B is the fully reusable version planned for later (around 2033). The variant with a Starship-like upper stage which has been displayed in model-form at shows may also be called CZ-9B (9BG ?) or may something else, and the same goes for the variants with three stages and 16 metre fairings. What's clear is that variants within the CZ-9 family is likely to pop up like mushrooms much like with all the other new generation Long March families. Possible uses for the CZ-9 family that have been mentioned by various people in the Chinese space sector include: delivery of lunar surface and martian surface infrastructure, construction of Mars-bound crewed spacecrafts, experimental solar power stations etc. They'll probably come up with additional possible uses (eventually, we may be talking about scenarios envisioned by 2001: A Space Odyssey and by Gerard O'Neill back in the 1960's and 1970's ... one can hope right?)
The reference to the CZ-9 being explicitly mentioned by sci/tech representatives as one of the goals during the 15th Five-Year-Plan is from the following link (also posted in this thread from back in April):
The 2030 date for the first flight of CZ-9 was mentioned in various PPT slides, see attached image from 2025(?). The version they want to launch by 2030 is likely the base CZ-9 with a reusable 1st stage; CZ-9B is the fully reusable version planned for later (around 2033). The variant with a Starship-like upper stage which has been displayed in model-form at shows may also be called CZ-9B (9BG ?) or may something else, and the same goes for the variants with three stages and 16 metre fairings. What's clear is that variants within the CZ-9 family is likely to pop up like mushrooms much like with all the other new generation Long March families. Possible uses for the CZ-9 family that have been mentioned by various people in the Chinese space sector include: delivery of lunar surface and martian surface infrastructure, construction of Mars-bound crewed spacecrafts, experimental solar power stations etc. They'll probably come up with additional possible uses (eventually, we may be talking about scenarios envisioned by 2001: A Space Odyssey and by Gerard O'Neill back in the 1960's and 1970's ... one can hope right?)
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