Oh yeah, I recall that, I was just saying I don't really have an in depth technical reason, per se. More just a feeling, I don't know.
China's Space Program Thread II
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
The new CASC rocket lineup at a glance.
From the largest rocket, from left to right:
CZ-9, CZ-10 (cargo), CZ-10 (human), CZ-10A (cargo), CZ-10A (human), CZ-10B (reusable), CZ-12, CZ-12A (reusable), CZ-12B (?)
Missing from the illustration lineup: CZ-10C
Posted by Adorable Whale on Weibo.
From the largest rocket, from left to right:
CZ-9, CZ-10 (cargo), CZ-10 (human), CZ-10A (cargo), CZ-10A (human), CZ-10B (reusable), CZ-12, CZ-12A (reusable), CZ-12B (?)
Missing from the illustration lineup: CZ-10C
Posted by Adorable Whale on Weibo.
Galactic Energy rocket lineup, from left to right: Ceres 1, Ceres 2, Pallas 1, Pallas 2. Posted by @北斗_玉衡 on Weibo.
Getting the remaining news in before this place gets flooded with LM-12A launch news (jk lol).
We found out that Guowang actually exceeded the launch goal for 2025, apparently it was supposed to be under 100, but because of SpaceSail's failures occurring during the year, possibly freed up capacity for the other to pull ahead of goals. On the Guowang end of things next year, it seems they want to launch triple this, 310 satellites, and I saw rumors that the SpaceSail goal is actually closer to 530 for next year, ambitious. If they can get capacity and manufacturing, maybe, but I don't think too much possibility should be put in these numbers just yet, until we see some launches in the first few months of next year. It will be a miracle to get to those 2028-2030 numbers, but again, not ruling China out, I've seen their space industry transform quick.
Interstellar Development has provided a bit more information on their Xingshi-1 capsule, both the manned (called Xingyi-1) and un-manned versions. Un-manned is planned to launch in the first quarter of 2026, it will be recoverable, and should provide 150kg of payload capacity, with launches often. Xingyi-1 should make flights around 2027-2028. Someone on Weibo was comparing it to the Dragon capsule, I can see how the function is probably similar, good for them to have this capacity and design.
Another note is that we should see another Ceres-1 launch before the end of the month, as far as I can see.
We have two launches on the 26th as well, so that should bring us up to 90 attempts on the year. I will try to keep you all updated. (one of those launches is from SUPARCO as well, Pakistan has had quite a few sats launched by China this year)
We found out that Guowang actually exceeded the launch goal for 2025, apparently it was supposed to be under 100, but because of SpaceSail's failures occurring during the year, possibly freed up capacity for the other to pull ahead of goals. On the Guowang end of things next year, it seems they want to launch triple this, 310 satellites, and I saw rumors that the SpaceSail goal is actually closer to 530 for next year, ambitious. If they can get capacity and manufacturing, maybe, but I don't think too much possibility should be put in these numbers just yet, until we see some launches in the first few months of next year. It will be a miracle to get to those 2028-2030 numbers, but again, not ruling China out, I've seen their space industry transform quick.
Interstellar Development has provided a bit more information on their Xingshi-1 capsule, both the manned (called Xingyi-1) and un-manned versions. Un-manned is planned to launch in the first quarter of 2026, it will be recoverable, and should provide 150kg of payload capacity, with launches often. Xingyi-1 should make flights around 2027-2028. Someone on Weibo was comparing it to the Dragon capsule, I can see how the function is probably similar, good for them to have this capacity and design.
Another note is that we should see another Ceres-1 launch before the end of the month, as far as I can see.
We have two launches on the 26th as well, so that should bring us up to 90 attempts on the year. I will try to keep you all updated. (one of those launches is from SUPARCO as well, Pakistan has had quite a few sats launched by China this year)
Liftoff video above.
Seeing that the landing attempt reportedly failed?
Edit: Never mind, it was confirmed.
Edit 2: Photo of failure:
Edit 3: Apparently the payload or the rocket itself reached orbit, waiting for SAST to confirm, just rumors for now.
Edit 4: Crash was 2km from landing site, so... accuracy is a bit worse than I suspected.
Edit 5: Reportedly one of the three engines failed to ignite, the other two did so fine.
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I mean... It should have been more likely than not.
China is falling more and more behind US in commercial space capacity. Being fair even if this worked, Chinese rockets for some reason have abysmal payload fractions especially compared to US counterpart with similar configuration. Point is, if it worked, there still is a very long road ahead to improve payload fraction and capacity to where SpaceX is right now and it didn't even work while SpaceX is still pushing ahead fast.
Its just disappointing, yesterday was the 10th anniversary of F9 FT's first flight and recovery.