China's Space Program Thread II

[PeoplesPoster]

Ziwei/AZSpace will be unveiling its unmanned commercial space station next week. The company plans to launch the space station in October of this year.

What exactly is a umanned space station?

 

[tamsen_ikard]

How many military/ISR does China have compared to US?

 

[lcloo]

What exactly is a umanned space station?

A space station that does not need to have human life support systems like breathable air, oxygen generation and carbon dioxide removal, sleeping berth, bath and toilet, water recycling, food storage and reheating, air pressurisation, health monitoring equipment, exercise equipment etc.

AI robots replacing human taikongnauts handling experiemnts conducted inside the space station, and also may be outside as well.

My two cents.

 

[Asug]

Cute Dolphin's speculated Chinese lunar mission sequence and comments

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(Plan A):

1. Changzheng 10 Yao-1 (CZ-10 Y1): First flight of the "Mengzhou" spacecraft, unmanned. It will be launched into lunar orbit, circle the Moon, and return to Earth. The primary objectives are to test re-entry at second cosmic velocity and ensure the safety of the entire flight process. This mission is analogous to NASA's Artemis I.

2. Changzheng 10 Yao-2 (CZ-10 Y2): Launch of the second "Mengzhou" spacecraft, unmanned. It will enter lunar orbit and await docking.

3. Changzheng 10 Yao-3 (CZ-10 Y3): Launch of the "Lanyue" lunar lander, unmanned. It will enter lunar orbit and dock with the "Mengzhou" spacecraft. The lander will then descend to the Moon's surface, conduct robotic sampling, and test the lunar rover. After completing its tasks, the lander will ascend and dock with the "Mengzhou" spacecraft in lunar orbit, which will then return to Earth.

Note: The order of CZ-10 Y2 and Y3 can be interchanged; they are considered part of the same mission plan.

4. Changzheng 10 Yao-4 (CZ-10 Y4): Launch of the second "Lanyue" lunar lander, unmanned. It will enter lunar orbit and await docking.

5. Changzheng 10 Yao-5 (CZ-10 Y5): Launch of the third "Mengzhou" spacecraft, carrying three astronauts. It will enter lunar orbit and dock with the "Lanyue" lander launched by CZ-10 Y4. Two astronauts will transfer to the lander and perform China's first crewed lunar landing.

(Plan B):

1. Changzheng 10 Yao-1 (CZ-10 Y1): First flight of the "Mengzhou" spacecraft, unmanned. It will be launched into lunar orbit and await docking.

2. Changzheng 10 Yao-2 (CZ-10 Y2): Launch of the first "Lanyue" lunar lander, unmanned. It will enter lunar orbit and dock with the "Mengzhou" spacecraft. The lander will then descend to the Moon's surface, conduct robotic sampling, and test the lunar rover. After completing its tasks, the lander will ascend and dock with the "Mengzhou" spacecraft in lunar orbit, which will then return to Earth. This mission serves as a full rehearsal of an unmanned lunar landing.

Note: The order of CZ-10 Y1 and Y2 can be interchanged; they are considered part of the same mission plan.

3. Changzheng 10 Yao-3 (CZ-10 Y3): Launch of the second "Mengzhou" spacecraft, crewed. It will enter lunar orbit without docking operations and then return to Earth. This mission is analogous to NASA's Artemis II.

4. Changzheng 10 Yao-4 (CZ-10 Y4): Launch of the second "Lanyue" lunar lander, unmanned. It will enter lunar orbit and await docking.

5. Changzheng 10 Yao-5 (CZ-10 Y5): Launch of the third "Mengzhou" spacecraft, which will dock with the "Lanyue" lander. Two astronauts will transfer to the lander and perform China's first crewed lunar landing.

If these upcoming rocket and spacecraft launches proceed without major issues, and the combination of Changzheng 10 Yao-4 and Yao-5 achieves a successful lunar landing, then China's lunar mission sequence essentially boils down to these two possible plans. I'm curious to know which one everyone thinks is better.

Compared to the Apollo lunar missions, a key advantage of China's first crewed lunar landing plan is the ability to conduct a full unmanned rehearsal, eliminating the need for astronauts to pioneer each step as was necessary during Apollo. This approach enhances safety and allows for thorough testing of systems and procedures before committing to a crewed mission. However, a potential drawback is the limited number of rocket launches in the interim. This could mean that by the time of the actual crewed lunar landing, the launch vehicle might not have undergone sufficient testing, leading to more conservative design choices. On the other hand, fewer launches could also be beneficial in terms of cost and resource management.

Aiming for a lunar landing by 2030 is an extremely tight schedule, leaving no room for errors... Wishing all the best for a successful mission!

After some thought, I came up with the following plan. First, based on the CASC slide, we cannot change Y4 and Y5. These are Y4 - Lanyue, Y5 - Mengzhou with a crew. Second, recalling Liu Yang's words about a manned lunar flight in 2028, we can assume Y3 - Mengzhou with a crew. Also, of course, we first need to test Mengzhou's return from the Moon at 2 cosmic velocity.
And then:
Y1 - unmanned Mengzhou, flyby of the Moon, return to Earth. 2027.
Y2 - Launch to the Moon Lanyue. 2028.
Y3 - Manned Mengzhou, docking with Lanyue. Unmanned landing and takeoff of Lanyue, re-docking with Mengzhou, and its return to Earth. 2028.
Y4, Y5 - 2029.

 

[xsub1223342]

When can we expect other nations to visit the Tiangong space station? Will Russia ever visit? Who do you think will be the first to collaborate sending their astronauts up it? Will Russia ever collaborate on building new modules for it?

 

[Asug]

As for Russia, this is unlikely. Russian spacecrafts cannot reach CSS. In addition, Russia is building its own station. The most real foreigners to attend CSS are candidates from the Belt and Road countries. As far as I know, candidates from Pakistan have already been selected. There was an interesting cooperation with Europe a few years ago. And I do not rule out that due to new political events, they may return to this.

 

[antwerpery]

When can we expect other nations to visit the Tiangong space station? Will Russia ever visit? Who do you think will be the first to collaborate sending their astronauts up it? Will Russia ever collaborate on building new modules for it?

Pakistan is confirmed to be the first, and they will be sending astronauts up in a handful of years. The training of their astronauts will start soon, maybe even this year. The situation is complicated with Russia, considering the whole Ukraine invasion. But once the Ukraine war is done and things have cooled off, they will likely be there. Once the ISS is gone, Tiangong will be the only game in town after all.

Same for Europe. They actually had plans for astronauts to visit Tiangong, but said plans got cancelled after the Ukraine war and probably a lot of American pressure. With America-Europe relations at an all time low and once the ISS is gone, Europe will likely be looking at to re-engage with China.

It really depends on what happens to the ISS and other future space station plans. If the ISS gets de-orbited and there’s no other space station in orbit other than Tiangong, then you can expect to see a lot of countries start to want to visit Tiangong, even countries that don’t have the best relationships with China, like Japan. You don’t want your astronaut program to slowly rot away after all.

And there’s a lot of uncertainly about future American space stations, who knows if the lunar gateway is happening. And the commercial space stations like orbital reef are a long way away, considering that Blue origin is heavily involved. Trump and Doge’s budget cuts are not helping. There’s a very good chance that Tiangong is the only space station in orbit for 5+ years after the ISS is gone.

And there is no way Russia is gonna to be building modules for Tiangong. Have you seen the recent issues the Russian segments of the ISS had? Or the fact that they are broke and have a lot more urgent issues to take care of.

 

[antwerpery]

I would knock out a few CZ-10A (no boosters) missions carrying cargo (inside the Mengzhou) to the space station first to get some more flight data logged. Maybe possibly a crew exchange mission to the space station too. Anything goes wrong, shorter distance to the ground.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1913097178266128759

China will land people on the moon with the 4th and 5th LM-10 rocket. 1st rocket probably send empty Mengzhou around the moon while 2nd and 3rd send crewed Mengzhou and a Lanyue lander around the moon for rehearsal/docking practice.

CZ-10A will fly a year earlier than CZ-10Y1 and the payload is almost certainly to be Mengzhou. We just don't know how many CZ-10A will fly before CZ-10Y1 though. But from the past experience, max two CZ-10A should be enough or already in the plan. For example, from what I've heard Shenzhou planned 3 uncrewed flights, it added the 4th uncrewed flight due to some problem was observed in the 3rd flight. So Mengzhou would plan 3 uncrewed flights, they are all in stated launches, 1st on CZ-10A, 2nd on CZ-10Y1, 3rd on CZ-10Y2,3 mock landing, 4th would be for crew landing. If anything not right, an extra CZ-10 or 10A can be added. So I agree with your concern, but I also think that is already coverred in this roadmap presented.

You're all forgetting an very important factor here. Reuse. We're all not sure how important reuse is to the LM-10 team, if they intend to try to land the CZ-10A in their very first flight or if they are intending to wait a few years until the rocket is mature before even attempting a landing. But if they do prioritize reuse from the very first few test flights of the LM-10A and LM-10 and if they do manage to land the rocket on the first or 2nd attempt, that's will speed the timeline a lot. That will give them a few extra rockets to play around with and will allow them to launch a lot more often, allowing them to more quickly iron out any issues and human rate the rocket.

If I was in their shoes, I would be heavily pushing for trying to land the CZ-10A from the 1st or 2nd launch and push for aggressive reuse of the recycled 1st stage ASAP. Do what SpaceX does and go for the hardware rich testing approach. If any private companies have managed to land a rocket by 2026, the LM-10 team would be smart to outright just pay said private companies for their telemetry and landing data and their expertise, so as to land the LM-10A and LM-10 as soon as possible. With such a tight timeline and with as many launches as possible needed to human rate the rocket and test out the lunar landers, the sooner that they can land the first stage and reuse it, the better.

 

[madhusudan.tim]

You're all forgetting an very important factor here. Reuse. We're all not sure how important reuse is to the LM-10 team, if they intend to try to land the CZ-10A in their very first flight or if they are intending to wait a few years until the rocket is mature before even attempting a landing. But if they do prioritize reuse from the very first few test flights of the LM-10A and LM-10 and if they do manage to land the rocket on the first or 2nd attempt, that's will speed the timeline a lot. That will give them a few extra rockets to play around with and will allow them to launch a lot more often, allowing them to more quickly iron out any issues and human rate the rocket.

If I was in their shoes, I would be heavily pushing for trying to land the CZ-10A from the 1st or 2nd launch and push for aggressive reuse of the recycled 1st stage ASAP. Do what SpaceX does and go for the hardware rich testing approach. If any private companies have managed to land a rocket by 2026, the LM-10 team would be smart to outright just pay said private companies for their telemetry and landing data and their expertise, so as to land the LM-10A and LM-10 as soon as possible. With such a tight timeline and with as many launches as possible needed to human rate the rocket and test out the lunar landers, the sooner that they can land the first stage and reuse it, the better.

Is 7 engine better suited for reusability than 9 engines ?

 

[antwerpery]

Is 7 engine better suited for reusability than 9 engines ?

I don’t think anybody really knows. Not many rockets have even attempted to land. It’s just the F9, FH, Starship and New Glenn for now. New Glenn is the only rocket out of the 4 that has 7 engines and it hasn’t landed yet.

In theory it will save you time on the refurbishment process, since you will need to inspect and do maintenance on a smaller amount of engines, but who knows how it will affect the actual landing of the rocket.