You really think they will risk safety of crew just because they are rising want to reach some symbolic dateline for political considerations?
please give more respect to Chinese space scientists.
They won't be risking the safety of the crew because all components WILL be ready and probably will be ready 18-24 months before this date.
The Chinese human space-flight program has come a long way from January 1992. From the initial flights testing out the CZ-2F and Shenzhou capsule combo in the early 2000's, when the program's technical sophistication was still substantially behind those of Russia and the United States, until today when it's on the cusp of taking the first visible steps necessary to achieve human lunar landing, (actually this already began last year), it has maintained an unmatched safety record. I am certain that the organization's primary focus during mission planning will remainl on crew safety.
What we know for certain regarding the plans of CMSA, CALT and affiliates include the following:
- CZ-10B (with the same 1st stage as CZ-10A) will have a first-flight either later this month or sometime in May,
- CZ-10A will make its first flight with the Mengzhou capsule (it's first orbital trial) later this year (by September?),
- CZ-10 (w/ 1st stage and boosters = lengthened CZ-10A/B 1st stage) will have a first flight in 2027,
- Crewed lunar landing is planned to occur either before the end of 2029 or 2030.
Also based on internet rumors, actual powerpoint slides from officials/insiders, and on journal papers, we suspect the following:
- CZ-10(Y-1) in 2027 will likely carry the Lanyue lander stack to LLO,
- CZ-10(Y-4) and (Y-5) will carry Lanyue and lunar Mengzhou and attempt the first crewed lunar landing, possibly in the Rimae Bode region of lunar near-side.
From all these, it seems clear that CMSA, in collaboration with CALT and its commercial spin-offs, has a well thought-out development schedule which priortizes crew safety. Furthermore, from the ambitious and successful February Max-Q Mengzhou and CZ-10A 1st stage tests, it's my opinion that CMSA and CALT have reached a programmatic stage where they no longer proceed with extreme caution like back during the early days of Shenzhou (no crew until the 5th flight taking 3-4 years and then only with a single astronaut). So I'm comfortable extrapolating the following, assuming that the C-10 and CZ-10A/B test flights proceed without major problems: crewed LEO Mengzhou/CZ-10A flight(s) in 2027, CZ-10(Y2) and CZ-10(Y3) lunar-landing dry-run in 2028 which achieve an uncrewed automatic Lanyue lunar landing and return to LLO [the CZ-10(Y-3) Mengzhou flight may or may not be crewed, if crewed this will mark the first Chinese crewed flight beyond LEO], if CMSA is ambitious and all the stars align, the CZ-10(Y2) and (Y3) flights may occur as early as late 2027. Finally, if the Y-2 and Y-3 flights are largely successful, this will likely mean the crewed lunar landing attempt (and the safe return of the astronauts to Earth) in 2029 or possibly in late 2028. Of course it any issues occur during the test flights which could impact crew safety, then the first landing would likely be delayed into 2030 or even beyond.
Exciting things are now on the horizon which will garner the world's attention (at a level even greater than that generated by Artemis 2). But first thing first, let's hope that the CZ-10B first flight goes well in the next few weeks.