China's Space Program Thread II

Michael90

Senior Member
Registered Member
The main reason I think it will happen in 2029 is the absolute importance of the date of 1 October 2029 as the PRC's 80th birthday.
You really think they will risk safety of crew just because they are rising want to reach some symbolic dateline for political considerations?
please give more respect to Chinese space scientists.
 

Xiongmao

Junior Member
Registered Member
You really think they will risk safety of crew just because they are rising want to reach some symbolic dateline for political considerations?
please give more respect to Chinese space scientists.
They won't be risking the safety of the crew because all components WILL be ready and probably will be ready 18-24 months before this date.
 

NoetherSpudCharge

New Member
Registered Member
You really think they will risk safety of crew just because they are rising want to reach some symbolic dateline for political considerations?
please give more respect to Chinese space scientists.

They won't be risking the safety of the crew because all components WILL be ready and probably will be ready 18-24 months before this date.

The Chinese human space-flight program has come a long way from January 1992. From the initial flights testing out the CZ-2F and Shenzhou capsule combo in the early 2000's, when the program's technical sophistication was still substantially behind those of Russia and the United States, until today when it's on the cusp of taking the first visible steps necessary to achieve human lunar landing, (actually this already began last year), it has maintained an unmatched safety record. I am certain that the organization's primary focus during mission planning will remainl on crew safety.

What we know for certain regarding the plans of CMSA, CALT and affiliates include the following:
  1. CZ-10B (with the same 1st stage as CZ-10A) will have a first-flight either later this month or sometime in May,
  2. CZ-10A will make its first flight with the Mengzhou capsule (it's first orbital trial) later this year (by September?),
  3. CZ-10 (w/ 1st stage and boosters = lengthened CZ-10A/B 1st stage) will have a first flight in 2027,
  4. Crewed lunar landing is planned to occur either before the end of 2029 or 2030.
Also based on internet rumors, actual powerpoint slides from officials/insiders, and on journal papers, we suspect the following:
  • CZ-10(Y-1) in 2027 will likely carry the Lanyue lander stack to LLO,
  • CZ-10(Y-4) and (Y-5) will carry Lanyue and lunar Mengzhou and attempt the first crewed lunar landing, possibly in the Rimae Bode region of lunar near-side.
From all these, it seems clear that CMSA, in collaboration with CALT and its commercial spin-offs, has a well thought-out development schedule which priortizes crew safety. Furthermore, from the ambitious and successful February Max-Q Mengzhou and CZ-10A 1st stage tests, it's my opinion that CMSA and CALT have reached a programmatic stage where they no longer proceed with extreme caution like back during the early days of Shenzhou (no crew until the 5th flight taking 3-4 years and then only with a single astronaut). So I'm comfortable extrapolating the following, assuming that the C-10 and CZ-10A/B test flights proceed without major problems: crewed LEO Mengzhou/CZ-10A flight(s) in 2027, CZ-10(Y2) and CZ-10(Y3) lunar-landing dry-run in 2028 which achieve an uncrewed automatic Lanyue lunar landing and return to LLO [the CZ-10(Y-3) Mengzhou flight may or may not be crewed, if crewed this will mark the first Chinese crewed flight beyond LEO], if CMSA is ambitious and all the stars align, the CZ-10(Y2) and (Y3) flights may occur as early as late 2027. Finally, if the Y-2 and Y-3 flights are largely successful, this will likely mean the crewed lunar landing attempt (and the safe return of the astronauts to Earth) in 2029 or possibly in late 2028. Of course it any issues occur during the test flights which could impact crew safety, then the first landing would likely be delayed into 2030 or even beyond.

Exciting things are now on the horizon which will garner the world's attention (at a level even greater than that generated by Artemis 2). But first thing first, let's hope that the CZ-10B first flight goes well in the next few weeks.
 

tokenanalyst

Lieutenant General
Registered Member

iSpace launches Series E financing, aiming to raise 7 billion yuan.​

Commercial aerospace company iSpace launched its Series E financing round, planning to raise 7 billion yuan, with a pre-investment valuation of approximately 23.5 billion yuan. If this round of financing is successfully completed, it will break the record for the largest single financing round by a private rocket company in China. Previously, the company completed a 5.037 billion yuan Series D++ financing round in February 2026. Founded in 2016, iSpace has completed 14 rounds of financing to date, with 92 shareholders, including Sequoia China, CDH Investments, Matrix Partners China, and various local governments and industry funds.

The funds raised in this round will be primarily used to advance the development of core products and infrastructure, including increasing the capacity and mass production of the Hyperbola-3 (SQX-3) rocket, building high-frequency launch capabilities, improving the Focus-2 engine production line and hot-fire testing capabilities, and developing the Hyperbola-9 heavy-lift rocket and the 300-ton-class full-flow staged combustion engine Focus-3. Simultaneously, the company will construct coastal launch pads to ensure future high-frequency launch needs.

iSpace plans to list on the STAR Market in the second half of 2027 and is currently in the "guidance and filing" stage. As regulators introduce more inclusive listing standards for commercial aerospace companies, the company is expected to apply using the fifth set of standards for the STAR Market, which requires achieving milestones such as the "first successful orbital insertion" of a medium-to-large launch vehicle using reusable technology.

As a reusable medium-to-large liquid-fueled rocket, the Hyperbola-3 is comparable to SpaceX's Starship system. It employs a launch method from Wenchang Space Launch Center in Hainan and vertical recovery at sea in the South China Sea, making it the only privately developed rocket model in China specifically designed for sea recovery. The rocket is expected to make its maiden flight in the fourth quarter of 2026, and the success of its "orbit insertion + sea recovery" mission will directly impact the company's IPO process.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

Tomboy

Captain
Registered Member
It really is no suprise though, CZ-10A and B uses the same first stage hence should have interchangeable boosters. In fact CZ-10B is literally just a CZ-10A with a improved methalox upper stage replacing the original kerosene one.

Unsure if CZ-10 can use CZ-10A/B boosters as that'll just add dead weight if they don't plan on reusing them. CZ-10C uses a redesigned methalox first stage and basically be a separate development from the rest of the family.
 

ZachL111

Junior Member
Registered Member

8 more satellites of Gaofen-07A02 series got launched on 12th Kinetica-1 launcher
Another interesting part to add is that this seems to be the first dedicated hardware based NEI satellites they have launched, allowing them to observe other satellites.

This is a major capability, and prior satellites that had this just used their main sensor to detect other satellites and capture images of them, according to what I have seen.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

We also got confirmation (again) that the Kinetica-1, or perhaps a variant of it, will be launching on a sea-based platform, perhaps this year and maybe once or twice. I know this was confirmed earlier in the year but they just confirmed it again.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The Youxi satellite, which is considered a cultural dissemination satellite, will be launched, prior reports said this month, but it has been completed and will be delivered soon. It will mainly be testing in-space display and selfie-camera technologies, as well as some new dedicated solar array the company has developed.


LandSpace's landing pad has been fully restored and repainted as well.

We have rumors that the 25th of May will be the date SZ-23 launches, as the current crew prepares to finish up their mission aboard the space station.
 
Last edited:

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member

According to this red banner. The CZ-10B first stage will do a full verification flight including the landing/cable barge recovery. And the naming convention different from classic Y~to X~. May be a new naming convention to count the reused times.
I think he misunderstood the banner.

预祝 长征十号系列一子级全剖面验证飞 长征十号乙X1火箭合练及首飞任务 圆满成动

The banner is pre-congratulating two (three) tasks:
  1. CZ-10's full flight profile test flight of its first stage.
  2. CZ-10B 遥1's
    1. rehearsal
    2. maiden flight
The banner seems to be from some time ago, so item 1 was Mezhou capsule's abortion test. Item 2 is ongoing. In CASC's terminology CZ-10 and CZ-10B are two separate rockets. CASC does not use CZ-10 1st stage to refer to CZ-10B's 1st stage or its missions.

The banner did not say whether CZ-10B's maiden flight will attempt recovery or not. But the X post's interpretation would have given an over-expectation. Then when CASC does not do the recovery that it never intended some people will still blame CASC for their own misunderstanding. That is just too often to happen among netizens.

Also his suggestion of scheme changing "Y~ to X~" is likely another mistake. Letter Y is used because it is the first letter in Pinyin of 遥, not because Y has any meaning in Chinese language. The launch would be disignated as 长征十号乙遥一. X is not initial letter of any Chinese words that may be related to launch sequence in my knowledge. In Chinese writting latin letter X is a place holder for "something" when for some reason the "something" is to be obscured.
 
Last edited:
Top