China's Space Program Thread II

[escobar]

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We've hit 90 launch attempts on the year, with the latest Long March 8A that China was able to sneak in before the year was out. It was highly expected for this launch to actually occur next year, they were able to get the launch preparation quickly done, to launch before the year was out.

The payload was the 17th group of Guowang satellites, which brings the lead a bit higher compared to prior, in terms of comparisons with SpaceSail's constellation.

View attachment 166905
View attachment 166906

On another note, we've had quite a few NOTAMS cancelled and updated, too many to track nearly, but I believe we should have a launch tomorrow? and I will try to cover it if I have time tomorrow.

I do also believe next year China will surpass the Soviet's peak of 101 launch attempts in 1982, I think we can basically guarantee that at this point, which will be exciting to see.

Each GW sat launched by CZ-8A weights

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[gpt]

the reusable first stage landing is very difficult. It will take many tries. 2026 may not be the successful year.

I am thinking China could create a larger version of its reusable spaceplane then use for launching satellites.

This is vastly more complex aerospace technology that won't fly (let alone operationalized) for another decade+. FYI they have several novel approaches, especially with the precooled air turbo rocket, which you can find in the earlier Space Program thread.

They'll have VTVL in 2026 and they'll iterate on the design after that. What we should really pay attention going forward is turnaround time and mass to orbit. Ultimately the most important thing here is execution and they need to build organizations that efficiently and effectively use resources.

Falcons are achieving extremely high cadence because it requires minimal refurbishment beyond legs and avionics checkouts. They're not performing some black magic but simply a highly competent team working with a really robust design.

 

[bebops]

This is vastly more complex aerospace technology that won't fly (let alone operationalized) for another decade+. FYI they have several novel approaches, especially with the precooled air turbo rocket, which you can find in the earlier Space Program thread.

They'll have VTVL in 2026 and they'll iterate on the design after that. What we should really pay attention going forward is turnaround time and mass to orbit. Ultimately the most important thing here is execution and they need to build organizations that efficiently and effectively use resources.

Falcons are achieving extremely high cadence because it requires minimal refurbishment beyond legs and avionics checkouts. They're not performing some black magic but simply a highly competent team working with a really robust design.

I think this is a good option. It can be used to skip the first stage in the future.

First stage is the hardest due to reusable landing and the most expensive piece in a rocket.

 

[Michael90]

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We've hit 90 launch attempts on the year, with the latest Long March 8A that China was able to sneak in before the year was out. It was highly expected for this launch to actually occur next year, they were able to get the launch preparation quickly done, to launch before the year was out.

The payload was the 17th group of Guowang satellites, which brings the lead a bit higher compared to prior, in terms of comparisons with SpaceSail's constellation.

View attachment 166905
View attachment 166906

On another note, we've had quite a few NOTAMS cancelled and updated, too many to track nearly, but I believe we should have a launch tomorrow? and I will try to cover it if I have time tomorrow.

I do also believe next year China will surpass the Soviet's peak of 101 launch attempts in 1982, I think we can basically guarantee that at this point, which will be exciting to see.

How come they are launching only 9 satellites in each batch so far? Is it apayload capacity issue, satellite capacity manufacturing issue or just a mission objective ?
I think spacesail launches far more on each batch, though they had more issues with their earlier sats performance.

 

[Michael90]

US is at almost 200.

Spacex rise has been shocking. I remember many people were making fun of them everywhere, saying how foolish, useless and how their ambition’s were unfeasible . Yet here we are today. Some are still saying the same thing about starlink , how it’s a waste of resources and unfeasible as well. We have to wait and see in a few years once it’s in operational how it will change the space industry as well. Crazy to see them launching over 170 times a year for a single company. If you told me this even 3 years ago, I would have said it’s impossible . I have learned not to underestimate them anymore .