China's Space Program News Thread

[chuck731]

I personally don't think US manned space exploration program will actually receive the funding to get anywhere any time soon. There is simply not sufficient incentive to justify the sort of sustained investment. Manned expeditionary vehicle and Orion are just quixiotic efforts that continued because entheusiam requires many collisions with reality before conceding the existence of reality.

Apollo program was driven only partially by the moral competition with the Soviet Union for bragging rights and appearence as the most forward looking and progressive social economic system. It was driven to a much larger extent by the perception during 1960s than men in cockpits have a large role to play in imminant and unavoidable militarization of space, and it was therefore well worthwhile to subsidize eminantly dual use manned space capability in the guise of peaceful exploration. The perception that man on site adds net value to military space missions was also the fundamental reason for the space shuttle program.

Since the original conception of space shuttle, it has become increasingly clear that automation, high band width communication, and real time telemetry has reduced the net usefulness of keeping men alive in cockpits for both military and commercial space missions to below zero.

The idea that Chinese lunar program, especially manned lunar landing, will motive the US to redouble its manned space efforts like Sputnik and Gregarin did is fantasy. The much more important motivation for Apollo and other manned space exploration - it subsidizes the development of manned space travel technology valuable for other military and commerical uses - is no longer there. China is flush with cash, and the US is not. China can afford to spend money on prestige projects without going into the red. The US must evaluate every penny carefully based on whether it would really pay. Manned space program does not pay.

 

[xiabonan]

Some people belittle China's moon landing because the US and USSR did it a long time ago, so people are used to the idea that it's possible to put something on the moon. Therefore, when China sends "only" a rover to the moon (and not humans as with the US), it doesn't seem much extraordinary. Even if China sent people to the moon, critics would say "well the US did that decades ago, so welcome to 1969".

Part of the know-how that the US and USSR (Russia) had about lunar mission is gone or very outdated, which means they also need to work hard to ensure a succesful mission. It's not like NASA could put another rover on the moon blindfolded, just because they put a man on the moon decades ago. However, their recent rover missions to and on mars would certainly help and give it an edge compared to ESA and the Russians.

I hope the Chinese engineers, scientists and the leadership won't get caught too much by these critics and continue their slow, but careful, methodical and practical development. It's a great achievement worth celibrating!

No the Chinese Space Team wouldn't be affected at all. In fact China has been hearing this kind of bashing for decades. It's not like they just started with the lunar mission. So what the Western media say does not really matter. What matters is what's in the best interest of China and what will benefit the Chinese race in the long term. That's why we need to invest in space exploration.

 

[chuck731]

It will be interesting, after the rover missions, and sample collections and returns, where the PRC will go next.

I think their manned space program will be absorbed in the effort to put up and support a permanently manned space station for sometime, well into the second half of 2020s. So I don't see any effort to put up a manned lunar mission until the 2030s.

I think after sample return missions, they will continue to concentrate on the moon as focus of their unmanned space exploration activities. It is better to focus and become the experts to go to on something, then to dissipate one's efforts on every passing opportunity. There are considerable potential for pure robotic missions to do useful things that's never been done before. For example, they can set up a network of landers on the surface and satellites in lunar orbit. They can put a unmanned astronomy observatory on the far side of the moon that communicates with the earth by relaying signals off of a communication satellite in orbit around the moon. A astronomy observatory on the far side of the moon would be virtually totally shielded from all EM noises from the earth and would afford hitherto unattainable opportunities in many parts of EM spectrum. They can drill into the moon, maybe "Yikes" and set off a nuke at the bottom of the hole to see what the resulting crater digs up. They could set a lander down in a permanently shadowed crater at one of the Lunar poles to prospect for water. It is much easier to get to the moon than Mars. One a similar budget as NASA devote to robotic Mars probes, the Chinese can send many more missions and put many more probes onto the moon. I can see they would put up a very impressive network of robotic ground stations, rovers, and orbital satellites around the moon.

Their touted goal of mining the moon for H3 is not nearly as much a pie in the sky as NASA's vague idea of terraforming Mars.

I think they will also occassionally send probes further afield, to asteriods, or to Mars and Venus, if opportunities are really favorable. But it wouldn't be their main focus until they are well and thoroughly through with the moon.

 

[Jeff Head]

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> MODERATOR COMMENT <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<​

The posts and discussion about the details of NASA's SLS, the Orion Spacecraft, and the Commercial Crew Development Program (CCDP - Shuttle replacement) are now at this new thread:

NASA Plans: News, Pics, Videos (SLS, Orion, CCDP)

Please continue those discussions there.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>> END MODERATOR COMMENT <<<<<<<<<<<<<<​

 

[Jeff Head]

Manned space program does not pay.

We disagree fundamentally.

The effort the US spent in putitng a man on the moon has paid many times over in the products that we use all the time now that were based on the research, development, and employing of those technologies then.

With the potential for resources and for development, that has not, and will not change.

The US (and other nations) will continue with its space efforts, both robotic and manned. At what rate? Time will tell.

I know the US is actively using other nations, and probably more importantly, commercial inteities to assist in the endeavor. The pay back will be calculated into this, particularly the commercial efforts which are already bearing fruit.

I believe SLS, Orion, and the Commercial Crew Development Program (CCDP) will all be a reality by or before the mid-2020s. And I believe, far more than "bragging rights," that the fruits of the R&D will make it very worth our while.

The US has more than enough funds...it just has to decide how to spend them. That may take elections to decide to invest it there...but it will not be the first time that such turns of events have occurred.

Anyhow, rather than in a competitive mode per se, this is being fueled by more nations like China and India getting seriously involved. With the US, Russia (to a lesser extent now), China, India, France, and other's involvement, the entire space technology frontier will continue to move forward.

 

[Equation]

Personally I'm quite interested in the size of the Chang'e 3 lander. It's quite decent sized if you compare it with the Apollo landers, and I think buzz aldrin or someone wrote it could be scaled up for an eventual human mission.
I expect CE 5, the lunar sample return mission will build on CE 3 and 4 landers, and CE 5 itself may prove technologies useful for a human mission.

It may seems that way, but you got to remember the CE 3 doesn't have any life support systems like the Apollo, therefore it needs to be bigger in order to do that, plus including a return vehicle as well.

 

[AssassinsMace]

Personally I'm quite interested in the size of the Chang'e 3 lander. It's quite decent sized if you compare it with the Apollo landers, and I think buzz aldrin or someone wrote it could be scaled up for an eventual human mission.
I expect CE 5, the lunar sample return mission will build on CE 3 and 4 landers, and CE 5 itself may prove technologies useful for a human mission.

If you read the Motley Fool, they think there's some secret payload because the lander according to them can hold several times more the Yutu rover which China has not disclosed. But of course the Motley Fool is Wall Street journalism and the article in the end as usual recommends US defense and space industry stocks to exploit.

 

[Speeder]

I am shocked why China didn’t put a small drone or helicopter inside the lander. Or better still, several of them, powered by different means (small rockets, solar panelled battery engines, or even pre-charged batteries…) and flying towards different directions form the lander. - the ones similar to what Seth used in Star War looking for small Anakin Skywalker The max payload of the lander seems not the problem. The tech involved seems not a big deal either – the same control / monitor tech as what used on the lander but just a much smaller version with a good recorder and an antenna for transmissions.

See, the Apollo and Soveits’ missions 40 years didn’t have such high tech as what are at our disposal today. They even didn’t have the tech of a Casio hand-held calculator. At a time they only could afford slow-moving rovers which only covered tens of kms.

Today, with drone/s or helicopter/s, China could cover 100s kms, shooting all sorts of footages of terrains for later transmissions, that are scientifically much more useful, much more entertaining (good for nation-brand building and worldwide reputation) , commercially very lucrative (footages such as images and sounds for later self-production, lease, or sales to worldwide telcos, Hollywood, computing industry, gaming industry, toys, etc for millions), and needless to say helping testing new civilian & military high tech as well.

 

[Blitzo]

Helicopter drone??? On the moon??

... Lack of atmosphere might prove a slight, teensy weensy hindrance to that idea

 

[chuck731]

I am shocked why China didn’t put a small drone or helicopter inside the lander. Or better still, several of them, powered by different means (small rockets, solar panelled battery engines, or even pre-charged batteries…) and flying towards different directions form the lander. - the ones similar to what Seth used in Star War looking for small Anakin Skywalker The max payload of the lander seems not the problem. The tech involved seems not a big deal either – the same control / monitor tech as what used on the lander but just a much smaller version with a good recorder and an antenna for transmissions.

See, the Apollo and Soveits’ missions 40 years didn’t have such high tech as what are at our disposal today. They even didn’t have the tech of a Casio hand-held calculator. At a time they only could afford slow-moving rovers which only covered tens of kms.

Today, with drone/s or helicopter/s, China could cover 100s kms, shooting all sorts of footages of terrains for later transmissions, that are scientifically much more useful, much more entertaining (good for nation-brand building and worldwide reputation) , commercially very lucrative (footages such as images and sounds for later self-production, lease, or sales to worldwide telcos, Hollywood, computing industry, gaming industry, toys, etc for millions), and needless to say helping testing new civilian & military high tech as well.

You realize drones and helicopters needs air to fly, right?