China's SCS Strategy Thread

[ACuriousPLAFan]

im talking with the china of even 2036 2046 let alone 2026

anyway china technically control that shoal since 2012 (14 years ago) , if non-gun blazing way work , that shoal should turn into a mini naval base with missile and airstrip like other rock china control by now

yet after 14 years that shoal still a fishing boat parking lot at best , and still require constant PLA navy , coast guard patrol

Things are way, way more than mere simple "muh guns go brrrrrttttt", simply because China isn't the US or Israel who can just go bomb whoever and whenever they like without suffering from significant repercussions (until the recent Iran War, that is).

There are actually way more things to take into account, including geopolitical (how such movements will affect diplomacy with ASEAN members and the world stage), economic (how such movements would affect economic relations), societal (how such movements would affect views and perceptions of China amongst the ASEAN populace), and more.

Also, if/once China builds a naval base on Huangyan, do you somehow believe China no longer needs to send warships and coast guard cutters there anymore?

 

[bsdnf]

Recent scientific research expeditions and official media reports on ecological protection actually prove that the Chinese government is unlikely to reclaim the island for now.

This is an act of asserting sovereignty, the government's assertion of its ecological value makes it unlikely that they would damage the environment or reclaim land. If they really wanted to, they would do so without saying a word.