China's SCS Strategy Thread
- Thread starter lilzz
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The Philippines will not — and cannot afford to — instigate anything kinetic that would drag the United States into an armed conflict with China. As much as some of the most die-hard pro-American voices in the Philippines cling to that false belief, no sane American president — regardless of party — is going to die on behalf of another country. Not for Taiwan, and certainly not for the Philippines.
The Philippine government will certainly keep pushing the envelope short of kinetic action, since this is one of the few remaining issues the current administration can claim some success on and fulfill the president’s campaign promise of “not one inch of territory” lost. Beyond that, the current Philippine economy is in free fall, worsened by the Iran war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The Philippines is one of the two worst-performing, most underprepared countries in the region when it comes to strategic petroleum reserves (SPR). The crisis has already triggered a net outflow of foreign direct investment and ranks the Philippines as the worst performer among all ASEAN countries not currently under sanctions (Burma/Myanmar).
A war with China that is prodded or ignited by the Philippines would make it a persona non grata among all its ASEAN neighbors and leave it both diplomatically and economically devastated — in every literal and figurative sense — if China decides to respond with kinetic action against the island nation.
