That's so true bro, But there is a catch the Tausog may want to establish a Sultanate kingdom of their own just like Brunei than joining either country.
China's SCS Strategy Thread
- Thread starter lilzz
- Start date
if china can offer a better deal then this never gonna happen ....if not who know ? we can't predict future
I don't believe this will happen within the next 15 years. It's not in Vietnam's interest; its economic growth largely depends on direct Chinese investment and the transshipment of goods, and its logistics are also within China's sphere of influence.
Militarily speaking, even the Vietnamese pawned their pants, they still couldn't muster the military strength to rival the PLA's Southern Air Force and South China Sea Fleet. To put it bluntly, Vietnam needs military strength approaching that of South Korea to achieve this goal, but currently it's still inferior to North Korea (except for its air force), and this isn't something that can be achieved overnight.
Ultimately, times have changed. US MIC isn't a wish-granting machine, and US weapons aren't magic. There's no way to counter China's military strength simply by selling out and acquiring weapons. Taiwan is the best example of this.
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lol, Vietnam is not going to give these islands to US. Don't write outlandish stuff like this.
China can definitely outbuild Vietnam because of tech, money and need. if you look at the huge dredgers they have built. They can certainly fill out lagoons in a couple of these reefs after it first builds out the elevated areas and turns them into real island.
These are never meant to be done in just a few years. You need to first build them out and make sure they don't disintegrate after a few storms and then complete the build out of the elevated areas. move over the floating power plants and such and then fill out the inside areas over time.
Filling out low tide elevations with sand is not really high tech. Its costly but not so high tech that Vietnam cannot match China, especially since Vietnam has the actual real estate where they can build it, China does not.
Anyways, as I said practically speaking China still has some low tide areas jn their existing reefs that they can expand but there is a limit since they control the least number of features in the spratlys.
Vietnam's economy is growing, they have the money to easily outbuild China if they want to, cause they control the largest number of features.
Vietnamese are known to be extremely anti-China. The pro-US south vietnamese are even more so. It is said that the only thing preventing Vietnam from becoming a US ally is the communist party.
If they are overthrown in a color revolution like what we are seeing in Iran, its not so far fetched that Vietnam will quickly become a US bastion.
The likelihood of Vietnam becoming anti-China is much higher than people think.
Ultimately, China should not be so okay with Vietnam building these artificial islands now. They should start putting pressure to stop the buildup.
Vietnam's lifeline of development lies entirely in China's hands. Its military capabilities and geopolitical position preclude any conflict or political hostility with China. For Vietnam to deliberately provoke disputes with China over the South China Sea and thereby undermine bilateral relations would be an utterly foolish move.
Again, the issue is not just building it up but also making sure the structures and facilities are in good shape after x number of years. We have recently seen huge vegetations grown in the islands that China reclaimed which is a good step toward permanent sustainability of these islands. And that’s the first step needed to do larger filling in areas that are less easy to build over. But also important in making sure the island itself can be sustained long term.
the idea that it can replicated by Vietnam is rather fantastical.
as for your continued insistent that Vietnam will somehow allow U.S. bases on these places, that is nothing but wild speculation. Frankly, ground for Chinese invasion. And Vietnam leadership understands this. It’s frankly a waste of time to discuss this scenario.
Island building in the SCS is very much unlike land reclamation on the mainland when you can blow up a mountain nearby to fill up the sea. Reclamation on atolls hundreds of kilometers away from any continents involves engineering a seawall using huge concrete blocks prefabricated elsewhere and then filling up the enclosed area with sand dredged from the sea floor. China is the world's dominent manufacturer of marine heavy lifting equipment and ocen-going dredgers involved in these kind of marine infrastructure projects.
Vietnam lacks these kind of capabilites and so far their land reclamation in the SCS requires the transportation of filling material from the mainland which is both slow and costly. No matter how many atolls they have occupied, Vietnam will not be able to scale up island building in the SCS as much as we did in the foreseable future.
Vietnam lacks these kind of capabilites and so far their land reclamation in the SCS requires the transportation of filling material from the mainland which is both slow and costly. No matter how many atolls they have occupied, Vietnam will not be able to scale up island building in the SCS as much as we did in the foreseable future.
