China's SCS Strategy Thread

[ansy1968]

Wonderful foresights. I think China has been thinking of this for a long while. Japan will collapse under its own debts especially have to pay protection money to a gangster!

@davidau bro if you follow the news, Taiwan and East Asia had become more prominent than that of SCS, the shift is happening, there is a realization in the Collective West to retreat and consolidate. That is due to the Ukraine War, their propaganda and planning was hit with a heavy dose of reality...lol

With Oil crisis, suddenly the middle east added a new dimension, with both Iran and the gulf state. A third front so within G7 who is the most vulnerable, it's Japan and the EU, with many indebted resource rich country wanted to join the BRICS and other Russian and Chinese led institution. The Otakus are challenging the cool kids and its like The Revenge of the Nerds...lol

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Well, I don't see fishing grounds at Scarborough Shoal as a big loss, so....

If the concern is just economical, then that definitely should not stop an agreement.

If this is how you see them then we've found the core of the problem. They aren't fishing grounds and the concerns are far from economical. They're the territory over which the next world war might be fought. They are China's exposed strategic flank and if it doesn't control them then it will never be safe.

If you can make an agreement that works, then do it. It's not like China will have a hard time enforcing agreement once it can push America out of the region.

The point is precisely that China isn't strong enough yet to push America out of the region. That's the heart of the issue. Once it is, any number of agreements will work because America's presence is what's breaking everything and why nothing but ruthlessness and brute force can work.

 

[Bob Smith]

I'm not sure China knows how to be magnanimous. At the end of the day, Chinese leadership needs to be very careful about how it deals with Philippines and coming to an agreement over territorial issues will be necessary to truly make Philippines one of its closest partners in the world. Being overly aggressive with its CCG is not a great way to handle the situation.


Well, what China needs is a port on the westpac facing US side that it can install build certain dual use facilities, radar stations and allow for port visit/replenishment. Now, the presence of such a facility could only happen if China and Philippines have very close relationships in security realm. It's quite possible Philippines would not be comfortable with such a facility. In which case, China would at minimum want Philippines to not allow hosting for US/Australian aircraft or military personnel that make frequent spying flights very close to Chinese air space.

It would seem to me having Philippines dropping VFA in exchange for joint exploration that favors Philippines and ceding Scarborough Shoal would be well worth it. I may be the minority on this forum with that view point.

What good giving away territory does for relations.

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Might as well give up Aksai Chin and claims to the Daioyu Islands since India and Japan are way more scary than the Philippines will ever be.

 

[reservior dogs]

I think you are mostly right here. A friendly and allied Philippines will make China's live a lot easier. But I do need to point out one other benefit and that's related to Japan.

I'm going to write something up on this, but the likely "base" or "forward point" or "semi-permanent structure" that China will have through Cambodia (and possibly Myanmar) coupled with the fully expanded SCS islands and packing 2 or 3 carriers in the region means China can effectively control Malacca straits in another 10 years. So where else can Japan get its energy and trade? Well the ships can take the long way around Indonesia and East of Philippines. Well, if PLAN can operate at total peace in Philippines Seas, China blocks off the long route around Malacca for shipping to Japan.

As I said when it comes to SCS, China needs to be the closest friend to either Indonesia or Philippines, but preferably both.

the next 10 years will be some of the most tense years for PLA. There are significant reasons to be generous in coming to deal with Philippines and Indonesia to have greater operational freedom in the region.

If people are concerned about China losing an island in SCS. Think about this. Would you rather lose a small island and nearby fishing ground or lose a major war?

There are a few assumption implicit in your suggestions that are not valid.

1. The Philippines is a stable government that has self determination. This is obviously not true. If you look at different governments, starting with Marcos, the different governments have changed their positions from the previous government. Further, there is a big contingent of people in power that are very pro-American. Some of the behaviors of the previous governments, much like the Ukrainian or European governments, made decisions that are not in the interests of the Philippines but in the interests of America. For China to give away an island, if the next government swings back to being pro-U.S., the Chinese can't also renege and take back the island without a major loss in credibility, especially to other South East Asian nations.

2. To gain access to Philippine ports, China must trade away its islands. this is also not true. The important thing is for China to have a very strong navy and be perceived by the Philippines as having eclipsed the U.S. The Chinese will gain all sorts of port access without having to give up an inch of ground if it is perceived as either already the top dog in the area or soon to be one.

3. If China does not act now, today, it will be too late. A battle will come soon that will stop the rise of China. That is simply not true as well. The U.S. have had access to the Philippines for a long time and it has always been a weak point for China. I don't foresee a military fight with China looming in the horizon because the U.S. has a lot of assets in East Asia that is also hostage to the growing Chinese military. The stronger China gets, the more likely the U.S. will lose these assets once a war with China breaks out anywhere. Losing these assets means the U.S. is finished in East Asia. No U.S. administration will cross the line with so much to lose.

 

[tphuang]

There are a few assumption implicit in your suggestions that are not valid.

1. The Philippines is a stable government that has self determination. This is obviously not true. If you look at different governments, starting with Marcos, the different governments have changed their positions from the previous government. Further, there is a big contingent of people in power that are very pro-American. Some of the behaviors of the previous governments, much like the Ukrainian or European governments, made decisions that are not in the interests of the Philippines but in the interests of America. For China to give away an island, if the next government swings back to being pro-U.S., the Chinese can't also renege and take back the island without a major loss in credibility, especially to other South East Asian nations.

Negotiate terms that are enforcible. China has very good negotiators. Negotiate terms that make sense for China.

2. To gain access to Philippine ports, China must trade away its islands. this is also not true. The important thing is for China to have a very strong navy and be perceived by the Philippines as having eclipsed the U.S. The Chinese will gain all sorts of port access without having to give up an inch of ground if it is perceived as either already the top dog in the area or soon to be one.

I didn't say China has to trade away islands. I said it should look at giving up certain claims in order to further develop relationship and settle maritime borders with Philippines. Having settled borders with Philippines would be huge in the region. That may entail giving up claim over a small island or it may not, Depends on the negotiation. Both sides need to give a little to find common ground.

3. If China does not act now, today, it will be too late. A battle will come soon that will stop the rise of China. That is simply not true as well. The U.S. have had access to the Philippines for a long time and it has always been a weak point for China. I don't foresee a military fight with China looming in the horizon because the U.S. has a lot of assets in East Asia that is also hostage to the growing Chinese military. The stronger China gets, the more likely the U.S. will lose these assets once a war with China breaks out anywhere. Losing these assets means the U.S. is finished in East Asia. No U.S. administration will cross the line with so much to lose.

The next 10 years will be scary times for China. It's strong enough to scare American security establishment. It's not strong enough and may not have enough nukes where China would feel safe in a conventional war. It needs every little bit of edge it can get. That's why the urgency is now, rather than 10 years from now.

What good giving away territory does for relations.

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Might as well give up Aksai Chin and claims to the Daioyu Islands since India and Japan are way more scary than the Philippines will ever be.

and how did the former hurt China?

The location of Philippines and Indonesia is far more important than Japan or India.

 

[Bob Smith]

and how did the former hurt China?

The location of Philippines and Indonesia is far more important than Japan or India.

They lost an island including its EEZ and territorial waters only for Vietnam to be one of the most anti-China countries a generation later. My point is that there are no permanent friendships however, territory is mostly permanent so you should never give up territory.

Not really on your last point as far as location. They share a border with India and Japan blocks more of China's access to the open Pacific than the Philippines or Indonesia does.

As far as importance, Japan and India are much more important than the Philippines and Indonesia.

 

[reservior dogs]

The next 10 years will be scary times for China. It's strong enough to scare American security establishment. It's not strong enough and may not have enough nukes where China would feel safe in a conventional war. It needs every little bit of edge it can get. That's why the urgency is now, rather than 10 years from now.

Today, there is no possibility of a direct U.S. attack even in the backyard of China(SCS, Taiwan, etc.). There are certainly a high risk of a proxy war, especially further away from China like in Africa. The Chinese are not yet strong enough to have a military proxy war with the U.S. away from its own backyard. That is why their dealing with countries away from its own backyard has always been a bit transactional. Even for a country like Burma, so close to China, they have chosen coercion rather than direct military intervention. A few selected countries like Tanzania are drawing closer to Chinese orbits. The Chinese approach has been to strengthen the fighting capability of the government that it is dealing with, making it difficult to topple the government, at least without an invasion from the U.S. itself. If push comes to shove, and the U.S. decided to invade a country far away from China that is friendly to China, the Chinese will help all the way except sending its own troops as PLA. The Chinese can make it very costly for the U.S. to make such a move. Even a country like Venezuela, so close to the U.S., we are not able to topple as to date. With Syria, Libya, Afghanistan and now Ukraine fresh on our minds, and our economy wobbly, I think invading another country is a low probability event for the next few years. Even if the U.S. were to make such a move, it would be a short term loss to China, but would not alter the trajectory of the rise of China. In the longer term, it would be a disaster for the U.S. I don't share the view that the next ten years puts China in high danger. The Chinese have the flexibility to wait until they have already risen before engaging in a direct military confrontation with the U.S. Even for Taiwan, they can simply find an excuse to ignore them if Taiwan were to declare independence. Wait until the time is right for them to make a move.

 

[weig2000]

This is probably the most relevant thread to post this, relatively speaking.

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[ansy1968]

There are a few assumption implicit in your suggestions that are not valid.

1. The Philippines is a stable government that has self determination. This is obviously not true. If you look at different governments, starting with Marcos, the different governments have changed their positions from the previous government. Further, there is a big contingent of people in power that are very pro-American. Some of the behaviors of the previous governments, much like the Ukrainian or European governments, made decisions that are not in the interests of the Philippines but in the interests of America. For China to give away an island, if the next government swings back to being pro-U.S., the Chinese can't also renege and take back the island without a major loss in credibility, especially to other South East Asian nations.

Bro the assumption of a pro American is false, maybe to the intelligentsia class, who had the time to indulge in politics and dream of having a green card and working abroad BUT did the same question been ask of the worker class, the farmers or the common Tao (man). Well Duterte and BBM overwhelming victory says otherwise.

2. To gain access to Philippine ports, China must trade away its islands. this is also not true. The important thing is for China to have a very strong navy and be perceived by the Philippines as having eclipsed the U.S. The Chinese will gain all sorts of port access without having to give up an inch of ground if it is perceived as either already the top dog in the area or soon to be one.

Correct bro, Lets take Japan as an example, right now she is having nightmare with China and Russia FON practice run...lol IF become routine lets see IF Japan can stand the pressure and may seek a compromise.

3. If China does not act now, today, it will be too late. A battle will come soon that will stop the rise of China. That is simply not true as well. The U.S. have had access to the Philippines for a long time and it has always been a weak point for China. I don't foresee a military fight with China looming in the horizon because the U.S. has a lot of assets in East Asia that is also hostage to the growing Chinese military. The stronger China gets, the more likely the U.S. will lose these assets once a war with China breaks out anywhere. Losing these assets means the U.S. is finished in East Asia. No U.S. administration will cross the line with so much to lose.

Again correct bro, SCS is settle in China favor, now the target is the 2nd Island Chain and here 003, 004 and 005 carrier will play a major role. Japan will face threats from all side, the problem in her desperation she may seek US statehood to be protected...lol

My thinking to defeat the US in the Pacific you need to take out Japan first, Now if Japan economy do collapse, the US will leave because the current Japan is a dead wood, she may be the 3rd largest economy BUT her pocket of excellence is shrinking fast. The US when face with a peer competitor may seek a compromise as she rebuild, BUT she is facing two instead of one. Russia a commodity superpower and China a manufacturing juggernaut, the strategy of divided and conquer is long gone.

 

[reservior dogs]

Bro the assumption of a pro American is false, maybe to the intelligentsia class, who had the time to indulge in politics and dream of having a green card and working abroad BUT did the same question been ask of the worker class, the farmers or the common Tao (man). Well Duterte and BBM overwhelming victory says otherwise.

Yes, I am very happy that they voted for Duterte, who actually acted in the interests of the Philippines. However, the powers that were behind Aquino III are still there. Some parts of the military are still very pro-U.S. If the Philippines runs into economic difficulties, these people will try to make a comeback. My point is, a deal of trading island for access must consider the stability of the Philippines government.

My thinking to defeat the US in the Pacific you need to take out Japan first, Now if Japan economy do collapse, the US will leave because the current Japan is a dead wood, she may be the 3rd largest economy BUT her pocket of excellence is shrinking fast. The US when face with a peer competitor may seek a compromise as she rebuild, BUT she is facing two instead of one. Russia a commodity superpower and China a manufacturing juggernaut, the strategy of divided and conquer is long gone.

You are correct about the Japanese economy, this is especially true if electric cars take off in the next few years, as I think it will. However, even a severely weakened Japan still has great strategic value for the U.S. and neither party will volunteer to alter the relationship. Japan will only flip when China has truly risen past the U.S.