China's SCS Strategy Thread


ansy1968

Captain
Registered Member
@Gatekeeper @PhSt @crash8pilot @HybridHypothesis @Oldschool A repost with my conversation with my brother @Bellum_Romanum .

@Bellum_Romanum bro Locsin is a known nationalist, he need to say that publicly as a way to assuage public concern , that is his job as foreign secretary and your right he had a short fuse and he speak his mind, he and Duterte had the same frame of thinking and character. He is once an Amboy (American boy) having live there during Marcos Martial law years as an exile. What change him? having serve as Press secretary during the Cory Aquino term, he had seen how the American operates, the hidden hand as we called and also the nepotism the return of the old oligarch. Bro Locsin is playing for the crowd, it's a bad cop good cop routine and using the same Wokeness strategy the opposition are making, election is near and the topic of the SCS is a way for the opposition to be relevant, like I told you before the American will intervene BIG TIME, and you can see those people making noises are the same former official of the discredit Nonoy Aquino administration. They were embolden by Biden administration and funds are pouring in.

The opposition see the SCS issue as a way to damage Duterte popularity, His independent foreign policy is one of his campaign promises and will be his lasting legacy, people see the benefit it provide and that scare the heck out of Washington and its local counterpart here in the Philippines. And I think the opposition are making a big mistake they will lose the Presidential election, instead of entertaining and pursuing nation building as their platform, they follow the US diktat and wokeness, Duterte name is not in the ballot, he is not allow to run again, the more you gaslight him, the more popular he got , he had accomplish so much within 4 years of his administration that people here see real changes compare to his predecessors.

And Bro you noticed how ABS CBN handle this report, they are pushing an agenda, they want the next president or elected officials to be beholden to them and renew their onerous franchised which Duterte revoke, being embarrass publicly for their nefarious activity and exposed their biased reporting their viewership shrunk tremendously, they're not the king maker anymore thus lessen their power to influence politician.

@Bellum_Romanum bro Duterte is the President any word he spur out will become his official policy, so he is very careful how to frame his statement, while Locsin channel his statement thru twitter which is his private view not as a cabinet member since he is the executor of Duterte policy. And @Temstar is right they telegraph their messages to their intended audiences and as an observer who do you believed had the bigger impact? :cool:
 

ansy1968

Captain
Registered Member
@ansy1968
Philippines is hard on the whitsun reef but mischief island is closer to Palawan than whitsun
@Oldschool sir My statement still remained how can the American hold it? even though its near Palawan the Philippine doesn't have the necessary resources to maintain it and the Chinese had blanketed that area with sensors, any US movement will be monitor and it may need an American navy ASG to assault those islands.

And Sir what really concern the Philippine the most is the Scarborough shoal, they will fight a war if the Chinese do build an artificial island, its next door to Subic port. While whitsun is just optics, its really a propaganda tool since the Filipino fisher folks never fished there due to distances.
 

plawolf

Brigadier
Mainland media thinks US want to take SCS disputed man made islands from China if China invade Taiwan.

Possible, since in a Taiwan scenario, the bulk of the PLAN would be kept close to Taiwan to support the invasion.

Any US moves against SCS islands will be seen as a feint intending to draw PLAN and PLAAF assets away from Taiwan to allow the USN main force an easier time to try to do enough damage to make an invasion non-viable, so they will probably allow the US to take the Spratly islands since they are so far away; but the Paracel islands will be easily defended given its close proximity to the mainland. B their priority would be Taiwan, and because those islands are liabilities rather than assets if you don’t have the support needed to properly defend them.

The SCS islands are only the death traps that they are in Chinese hands because of the overwhelming might the PLAN and PLAAF can bring to support them.

In US hands, they will be lonely outposts on the other side of the world far from any support and well within Chinese weapons range.

The Chinese would also scuttle all equipment before allowing the islands to be captured, as well as US bombardment prior to invasion would make those islands worthless as the forward sensor assets they are for China without extensive repair and refit, which the US will not have the resources or time to do before China is done with Taiwan and can redeploy its forces to retake the Spratly islands.

Move over, any US military action against China’s SCS islands would put the two in an effective state of war. That means all US bases and assets in the rest of Asia is free game. Without the USN to support them, most would be bombed out craters within days and of no further military value for the duration of the conflict.

Basically, China would love it if the US wasted it’s time trying to land grab in the SCS instead of engaging their main forces directly over Taiwan. Because that will only guarantee Chinese success in Taiwan with minimal losses while also being able to easily roll back US gains in the SCS once Taiwan has been secured.
 

plawolf

Brigadier
Well it was blatantly an act of deliberate sabotage and provocation, and exceptionally irresponsible thing for any official, never mind the foreign secretary to say.

Other than giving internet trolls a hard on, it was blatantly never going to achieve anything meaningful and would have almost certainly brought significant harm to Philippines national interests had China taken the bait.
 

ansy1968

Captain
Registered Member
Well it was blatantly an act of deliberate sabotage and provocation, and exceptionally irresponsible thing for any official, never mind the foreign secretary to say.

Other than giving internet trolls a hard on, it was blatantly never going to achieve anything meaningful and would have almost certainly brought significant harm to Philippines national interests had China taken the bait.
@plawolf and that is the thing Sir, the Chinese hadn't taken the bait cause it wasn't communique thru normal OFFICIAL channel. Words originating from Duterte is an official statement and will become a policy, while those statement emanating from his official thru twitter or FB is all talk and nothing else.
 

Nutrient

Junior Member
Registered Member
Western media would have us think that China is the only country building islands in the South China Sea. However, according to the
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,

-- "Vietnam occupies between 49 and 51 outposts (the status of two construction projects on Cornwallis South Reef is unclear) spread across 27 features in the South China Sea."

-- "The Philippines occupies a total of nine features in the Spratly Islands."

-- "Malaysia occupies a total of five features in the Spratly Islands."

-- "Taiwan’s sole outpost in the Spratly Islands is Itu Aba Island."

-- "China has 20 outposts in the Paracel Islands and 7 in the Spratlys."

The major difference is that China could afford to "create 3,200 acres of new land", which is more than the smaller countries could do.

That is quite a lot of territory, equivalent to a square that's almost 3.6 km long on each side, far more surface area than all the US aircraft carriers combined. We're not even counting the harbors and such where ships and submarines can lurk. Imagine the military power on those islands. No wonder the Americans are upset.
 

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