China's SCS Strategy Thread


weig2000

Junior Member
Hi weig2000 with russia assisting China in early warning system, do you think that in the near future there will be some sort of China russia norad style defence agreement?
It's very likely and makes a lot of sense. For Russia, Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean can be better covered from China; for China, Arctic Ocean and Northern Pacific can be better covered from Russia. So it's complementary and mutually beneficial. The cooperation in missile early warning system will lay the technology foundation. From there, they can gradually integrate operations.
 

bajingan

Junior Member
Hi Nobonita Barua
I agreed with you, having russia on your side is also useful in deterring and distracting japan
japan is increasingly agressive and the us is hell bent on placing srbm in japan
Geographically besides China, Russia is closest to japan and russia already in the process of militarizing sakhalin island
At the very least Russia can make japan more "neutral" and not simply following every us orders like a true vassal state
 

Farooq Rashid But

New Member
Registered Member
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MODERATOR NOTICE: This thread was originally about the Spratly Islands and Vietnam's activites with respect to development and defense. It was started in 2007 and had little traffic. More recently we have had a lot of discussion about the South China Sea and the Islands there, as they relate to the use of China's carrier group, the new submarines that Vietnam has purchased and the general growth in naval power in the entire South China Sea area.

The new posts are being moved here so that discussion can occur on this thread and take other threads off topic. Thank you.


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Recently, Vietnam has partnered up /w BP oil company to explore and drill in the spratly island for oil. Chinese has released strong words regarding the move as infringing chinese interest in the south china sea.

They were already two wars against vietnam in 1974 and 1988 for paracel and spratly island. Looks another one is imminent. Vietnam bring in the foreign companies and figure China is tied down in taiwan issue and won't risk against them in spratly.

What military options available against the Vietnamese navy? Vietnam has stepped up in acquiring and soviet missiles ship and planes to counter china.

Does china has to wait till the carrier project finish. around 2010? The air fighters are limited due to long distance from Hainan. Seems /w no carrier, china currently tied down. The vietnam has advantage due to close to support from the land.

New alliances and news lobbies will be surprising for US super powers, soon very soon

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Farooq Rashid But

New Member
Registered Member
Hi weig2000 with russia assisting China in early warning system, do you think that in the near future there will be some sort of China russia norad style defence agreement?
Russia’s longtime ally India has fallen into the lap of the United States asper the wish of its Israeli friends. On the other hand, in response to this, long distances between Russia and Pakistan are gradually coming to an end, with the help of their mutual friend China.

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caudaceus

Junior Member
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I don't know if this relevant to the thread but i put it here anyway
Putin said alliance with China is possible in the future and russia has provided China with sensitive military technology
I am a huge proponent of China having a military alliance with russia, because as we all can see the us is building an asian nato with the quad to contain China this alliance at the moment consist of us, japan, australia and india but with russia firmly on China side this quad can be neutralized
For all of russia weaknesses her military tech is still world class, combined with China massive industrial power, no alliance will be able to contain them
Save it until EU relation getting so sour.
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
China is not Japan or Germany. China does not lack fossil fuels. They have significant reserves of coal, and 60% of China's energy consumption comes from coal. They have abundant reserves of crude oil, with more being discovered recently. Although not enough to be exported, it is enough to sustain itself. China's oil consumption per capita is very low, around 7 barrels per day compared to 60 for US.

China also has the largest currently known shale gas deposits, although they are harder to extract than American shale gas. China is not in a hurry to develop and enter a similar "shale revolution" so soon. US shale fracking companies borrowed heavily to jump start and develop the technologies to make extracting shale gas economically viable. And so far, things are not looking good and many are going bankrupt because of the recent oil gluts caused by the price war by OPEC and Russia to squeeze American fracking companies out of business since crude oil is still much cheaper to extract than shale oil and gas. Combined with the COVID-19 recession, its a double whammy for them.
The option to blockade China with oil being the target is closing fast. Aside from domestic production and Russian supply, China can ramp up oil import from Iran. DF-17 could be stationed in Iran and Pakistan to form a protective umbrella. Chinese merchant tankers can sail through this protective umbrella to reach Pakistan, from where oil will be pumped into China via pipelines. Chinese warships can station in Pakistan to patrol inside the protective umbrella. Longer term, maybe within five years, a pipeline from Iran to Pakistan will bypass that altogether. This will change the Middle East politics dramatically. To protect the DF-17, Iran will received whole new set of defensive network and maybe the J-10 fighters. With their border secured, they can focus on industrial development. This will be a nightmare for Israel, an industrialized Iran with ten time the population and the center of the Shiite Crescent.
 

FangYuan

Junior Member
Registered Member
All allies and friends are unstable and unreliable. Its law is like a sinusoid. When you reach the top, next you will go down. It partly explains the reason for the brotherly / ally relationship: The Soviet Union, Vietnam and Albania became hostile to China and its influence remains to this day. China needs to have good relations with the rest of the world but cannot be too good because it has the opposite effect.

It is interesting to note that Israel and Saudi Arabia are the two countries that give China the most benefits, not Iran. Israel has sold uavs, air-to-air missiles (with TOT), and provided technical assistance to China during the development of the J-10. Saudi Arabia is China's major economic partner in the Middle East, and is also one of the countries that have supported China as the United States and its allies use the Uighur issue to attack China.

China needs to avoid making statements and actions affecting relations with those two countries. Too close to iran is not good for china. If buying oil from Iran is more beneficial to China than buying oil from Russia and KSA then this transaction should be encouraged. But bringing advanced weapons to Iran or any other country is absolutely not.
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
All allies and friends are unstable and unreliable. Its law is like a sinusoid. When you reach the top, next you will go down. It partly explains the reason for the brotherly / ally relationship: The Soviet Union, Vietnam and Albania became hostile to China and its influence remains to this day. China needs to have good relations with the rest of the world but cannot be too good because it has the opposite effect.

It is interesting to note that Israel and Saudi Arabia are the two countries that give China the most benefits, not Iran. Israel has sold uavs, air-to-air missiles (with TOT), and provided technical assistance to China during the development of the J-10. Saudi Arabia is China's major economic partner in the Middle East, and is also one of the countries that have supported China as the United States and its allies use the Uighur issue to attack China.

China needs to avoid making statements and actions affecting relations with those two countries. Too close to iran is not good for china. If buying oil from Iran is more beneficial to China than buying oil from Russia and KSA then this transaction should be encouraged. But bringing advanced weapons to Iran or any other country is absolutely not.
Agreed. In fact, China is friends with everyone, Israel and Saudi Arabia included. To balance all their interests, China has not provided arm to Iran in a way that dramatically upset the balance of power in the Middle East. It is not in their interest to do so. I was speaking of a hypothetical scenario where a blockade was enacted against oil flow into China. In that case, Israel and the Saudis must fall into the U.S. camp and China will thus begin to lean on Iran to help it survive. Heavily arming Iran is not the base case for China nor is it currently in China's interest.
 

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