China's SCS Strategy Thread

[plawolf]

At the end of the day, America and its lap dogs achieve absolutely nothing with all their waste of time sailing and flying around beyond giving China the perfect pretext to arm those islands as much as they want.

The hard power reality is that with those island bases, now armed to the teeth thanks to the cover and pretext American FONOPs have provide, gives China a decisive tactical advantage in any shooting war should Trump be stupid enough to try it.

The US has no military bases of relevance within range of those SCS islands.

That means any military option is left to USN alone to shoulder.

Those islands are unsinkable carriers with easily as much defensive and offensive capabilities as any CSG, while able to support sensors that will far outrange anything an USN CSG has available, and can take more punishment than any ship could possibly dream of and still be operational.

Those islands could also easily support the kind of lasers that the Chinese have used to temporarily blind US spysats in the past, as well as powerful jammers capable of disrupting radar and communications satellites. So not only would the US be fighting with only one of its 3 military services, it will potentially be doing so without eyes in the sky or reliable comms.

Add in the might of the PLAN fleet as well as PLAAF land based assets, and the SCS is just about the worst possible place the US could choose to have a military showdown with China from a US prospective, far worse than even a Taiwan or Korea scenario.

While America has been playing poker, China has been gearing up to actually fight and win.

All the western analysis on the matter is flawed because it only looks at the matter from an American POV in terms of what the SCS means to America. The flip side is that the SCS is the best place for China to pick a fight with America. Where it has all the home field advantages of a fight closer to the mainland, without the same risks to its population and industrial centres.

What America has done is leave itself incredibly exposed as to give China the perfect opportunity to initiate a fight at a time of its choosing, and in the place that favours it the most.

Let’s be clear, China is not looking for a fight. But it is not so naive as to think it’s own wishes and actions alone would be enough to avert war if the other side really wants a fight. The SCS is China’s ultimate contingency plan. Whereby if a fight is inevitable, China will be able to fight it at a time and place most beneficial to China.

That is one of the core reasons why the SCS has now been elevated to national core interest for China, and why China has made such monumental investments there. Those islands are massive overkill against all the other claimants, their true purpose is to create a killing ground for hostile carrier fleets to go to die.

It is telling that the US Pacific command has recently renamed itself as the Indo-Pacific command.

To me, that is a tacit aknowledgement of the changed reality in the Pacific and SCS, where the USN is now shifting its focus to the Indian Ocean as its best bet to try and contain the PLAN.

The current publicity blitz is more borne out of impotent frustration than the position of strength America is posturing.

If they had better options, they would have used them long ago.

 

[Air Force Brat]

Agreed. China is accomplishing tangible results on ground but one has to admit that US is also now backing up its rhetoric with some degree of tangible measures.

Hope both parties can stay sane and live in harmony

China admittedly took full advantage of Obama's feckless mismanagement, maybe just out-right "self loathing?"... President Trump stated, "who could blame them??",, nowTrump has taken concrete measures to make sure everyone know's he's let the DOG out ?

Now that everyone knows? that's why there are so many insults directed at the US, President Trump, Sec Mattis, Sec Pompeo, and even Western posters,, it is kinda fun observing people's reaction to the change?

I'm not going to insult other posters, China, or President Xi, even though I may disagree with the other teams unstated objectives, I think "Sec Mattis, and Sec Pompeo are dialed in, and no doubt they will be bringing the President up to speed..

I'm rather certain that China doesn't think Sec Mattis is Barking, LOL! they take Sec Mattis very seriously, just as Sec Mattis takes their actions very seriously, that should be reassuring to each of us!

 

[manqiangrexue]

China admittedly took full advantage of Obama's feckless mismanagement, maybe just out-right "self loathing?"... President Trump stated, "who could blame them??",, nowTrump has taken concrete measures to make sure everyone know's he's let the DOG out ?

Well if they were taking advantage of Obama then they're taking advantage of Trump just the same because construction and militarization is ongoing... as a matter of fact, it's more militaristic now than it was under Obama. So... what is an example of a "concrete measure" that the US has taken?

Now that everyone knows? that's why there are so many insults directed at the US, President Trump, Sec Mattis, Sec Pompeo, and even Western posters,, it is kinda fun observing people's reaction to the change?

Mattis started the mud-slinging; most fun observing his reaction to the change that China dominates the SCS, according to your logic.

I'm not going to insult other posters, China, or President Xi, even though I may disagree with the other teams unstated objectives, I think "Sec Mattis, and Sec Pompeo are dialed in, and no doubt they will be bringing the President up to speed..

Oh You're actually going to refer to Xi as a president instead of an emperor this time to look like you don't stoop to a level of insults? Hahaha How refreshing!

I'm rather certain that China doesn't think Sec Mattis is Barking, LOL! they take Sec Mattis very seriously, just as Sec Mattis takes their actions very seriously, that should be reassuring to each of us!

Yeah, they take him so seriously they're still building and militarizing as he gave his complaint speeches and then they called his remarks ridiculous and irresponsible. As for barking, hey, he's the one who's 80 years old and fancies himself as "Mad Dog"; China certainly had no interest in calling an old man a mutt.

 

[solarz]

China admittedly took full advantage of Obama's feckless mismanagement, maybe just out-right "self loathing?"... President Trump stated, "who could blame them??",, nowTrump has taken concrete measures to make sure everyone know's he's let the DOG out ?

Now that everyone knows? that's why there are so many insults directed at the US, President Trump, Sec Mattis, Sec Pompeo, and even Western posters,, it is kinda fun observing people's reaction to the change?

I'm not going to insult other posters, China, or President Xi, even though I may disagree with the other teams unstated objectives, I think "Sec Mattis, and Sec Pompeo are dialed in, and no doubt they will be bringing the President up to speed..

I'm rather certain that China doesn't think Sec Mattis is Barking, LOL! they take Sec Mattis very seriously, just as Sec Mattis takes their actions very seriously, that should be reassuring to each of us!

I have to laugh at this, because your view is just so typical of the American public. Either you're pro-Trump and everything he does is awesome, or you're anti-Trump, and every thing he does is a disaster. There is no logic or reason involved.

Obama does FON and China militarizes islands = feckless management.
Trump does FON and China militarizes islands = concrete measures.

 

[kwaigonegin]

I believe China will do whatever the heck china wants in the SCS and short of them doing something totally illegal and wrong where actual human lives are lost and where some fairly reasonable Chinaphiles here would even gasp, there is really not much the US can or will do about it.
All this back and forth rhetoric and dog and pony show is for the consumption of the national voting public.
In truth, the US (regardless of who the POTUS is) has very little influence on Chinese ambitions and intentions in the SCS.
That is the damn truth and as hard as it is for me to admit it's really the reality.

 

[jobjed]

I believe China will do whatever the heck china wants in the SCS and short of them doing something totally illegal and wrong where actual human lives are lost and where some fairly reasonable Chinaphiles here would even gasp, there is really not much the US can or will do about it.
All this back and forth rhetoric and dog and pony show is for the consumption of the local voting public.
In truth, the US (regardless of who the POTUS is) has very little influence on Chinese ambitions and intentions in the SCS.
That is the damn truth and as hard as it is for me to admit it's really the reality.

Congratulations on being one of the first Americans to take the inevitable mental step. All Chinese have accepted that China won't be able to influence US actions in the Gulf of Mexico. It's just a fact of life. Before long, all Americans will see the SCS as Chinese see the GoM. These couple of decades of tensions is simply noise made by Americans that are slower to adapt to the new reality.

 

[Dolcevita]

Congratulations on being one of the first Americans to take the inevitable mental step. All Chinese have accepted that China won't be able to influence US actions in the Gulf of Mexico. It's just a fact of life. Before long, all Americans will see the SCS as Chinese see the GoM. These couple of decades of tensions is simply noise made by Americans that are slower to adapt to the new reality.

Actually thanks to US, President Trump, Sec Mattis, Sec Pompeo, China can further justify and cannot be faulted in continuing improvement of the islands, This will only enhance the conditions on the ground in China's favor. As Jeff always say, US will continue FON to look tough, China will continue to develop the islands. Actually a WIN-WIN in my view.

 

[Air Force Brat]

I have to laugh at this, because your view is just so typical of the American public. Either you're pro-Trump and everything he does is awesome, or you're anti-Trump, and every thing he does is a disaster. There is no logic or reason involved.

Obama does FON and China militarizes islands = feckless management.
Trump does FON and China militarizes islands = concrete measures.

I actually do give Obama credit for the Pacific Pivot,,, however Mr. Obama was actually unable to grasp the gravity of the situation with China, his lack of knowledge and contempt for China evident. Michelle and her Mom were very poor representatives of the US, demeaning and degrading their Chinese hosts and hostesses, so our relations with China suffered, so much so that on Obama's last visit, nobody bothered to roll out the air stair.. not that I blame them...

I was very happy to vote for Mr. Trump, he has proven himself pro-military, pro-life, pro-family, pro-tax cut, pro healthcare, killing the "unconstitutional individual mandate", and rolling back the massive bureaucracy that kept good Drs. from practicing good medicine....

In addition the American Economy has rebounded, the Keystone pipeline and coal are allowing us to produce and export energy, and the military is in the process of being returned to some semblance of functionality...and manufacturing has returned to the US in a big way, all good things for America, good things for our friends,,,, so yes, I am pro- Trump, he's willing to learn, and humbled by the great honor he has been afforded by the American people.

but no, I'm not a typical American, most American's have no idea, and don't care about freedom of navigation anywhere, and if you asked them to point out China on the map, or the South China Sea, they'd be very unlikely to have a clue!

I on the other hand, do care what happens on this grand planet we live on, and NO I don't think the Gulf of Mexico belongs to Mexico, or the Sea of Japan belongs to Japan, anymore that I believe the SCS belongs to China,,,,, those FON OPs make it clear to China and the rest of the world that the US Govt doesn't believe that either!

 

[solarz]

I actually do give Obama credit for the Pacific Pivot,,, however Mr. Obama was actually unable to grasp the gravity of the situation with China, his lack of knowledge and contempt for China evident. Michelle and her Mom were very poor representatives of the US, demeaning and degrading their Chinese hosts and hostesses, so our relations with China suffered, so much so that on Obama's last visit, nobody bothered to roll out the air stair.. not that I blame them...

I was very happy to vote for Mr. Trump, he has proven himself pro-military, pro-life, pro-family, pro-tax cut, pro healthcare, killing the "unconstitutional individual mandate", and rolling back the massive bureaucracy that kept good Drs. from practicing good medicine....

In addition the American Economy has rebounded, the Keystone pipeline and coal are allowing us to produce and export energy, and the military is in the process of being returned to some semblance of functionality...and manufacturing has returned to the US in a big way, all good things for America, good things for our friends,,,, so yes, I am pro- Trump, he's willing to learn, and humbled by the great honor he has been afforded by the American people.

but no, I'm not a typical American, most American's have no idea, and don't care about freedom of navigation anywhere, and if you asked them to point out China on the map, or the South China Sea, they'd be very unlikely to have a clue!

I on the other hand, do care what happens on this grand planet we live on, and NO I don't think the Gulf of Mexico belongs to Mexico, or the Sea of Japan belongs to Japan, anymore that I believe the SCS belongs to China,,,,, those FON OPs make it clear to China and the rest of the world that the US Govt doesn't believe that either!

1. Obama's lack of knowledge and contempt for China: Trump is the one who campaigned on anti-China rhetoric.
2. American Economy has rebounded: it has been growing all through the Obama years
3. You think the typical American can't even point out China on the map?
4. Who's this "rest of the world" you're referring to? So far, it's only been the US that's doing these FON, and maybe Australia, France, and UK. That's "the rest of the world" in your dictionary?

 

[Yodello]

1. Obama's lack of knowledge and contempt for China: Trump is the one who campaigned on anti-China rhetoric.
2. American Economy has rebounded: it has been growing all through the Obama years
3. You think the typical American can't even point out China on the map?
4. Who's this "rest of the world" you're referring to? So far, it's only been the US that's doing these FON, and maybe Australia, France, and UK. That's "the rest of the world" in your dictionary?

Just leave the 'American Brat' to his day dreams.