China's SCS Strategy Thread

Blackstone

Brigadier
That's a self-serving narrative sold by the mainstream media, but was far from true. Unlike in Europe, the US barely has any foothold on Asian continent, and has never won a war in Asia (a standstill in Korea Peninsula, a lost war in Vietnam). That's also why Robert Gates advised against any future land adventure in Asia by the US. The US has had some strongholds in Asia peripheral and Pacific, notably Japan, Philippines (not now), Guam, but the ex-Soviet Navy posed strong challenges to the USN in the Pacific.

Asia was divided during the Cold War, with the continent largely controlled and dominated by the communist blocks, while the US and its allies had upper-hand in the Pacific. It was far from "based on US primacy" and it is not now - it has a strong presence to be sure, but is increasingly worried about its weakening influence, then the pivot to Asia.
You are wrong on facts. US victory against Imperial Japan was indeed winning a war. Before that, US defeated Spain's Asian holdings too, it's how The Philippines came under US rule.

US primacy is mainstream and not worth debating. Go read some history books for reference if you like, but I'll not waste my time debate you on that topic.
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
To add to that, Uncle Sam should stop bitching when China send planes/ships to play bumper cars. It's in international space so everyone has the right to go where they want, including cutting in front of you.
There are safe intercepts, and then there are unsafe ones. PRC already had a pilot killed, in your own words, "cutting in front," and it's possible CCP leadership don't want to lose more pilots in unsafe intercepts. Bottom line is US has the right to gather intelligence in international air space and waters, and PRC has the right to keep a close eye on US assets. Both sides should conduct their missions in safe and professional manners, and according to news reports, that is indeed the case.
 

weig2000

Captain
You are wrong on facts. US victory against Imperial Japan was indeed winning a war. Before that, US defeated Spain's Asian holdings too, it's how The Philippines came under US rule.

US primacy is mainstream and not worth debating. Go read some history books for reference if you like, but I'll not waste my time debate you on that topic.

You were talking about after WWII. I've given you facts. I don't need to read more history book for thus purpose - I'm well versed in this type of history.

I was also not debating with you, merely pointing out what's wrong with your statement to set the facts straight. You're not worth debating with based on your track records. This is my last post on this topic with you.
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
There are safe intercepts, and then there are unsafe ones. PRC already had a pilot killed, in your own words, "cutting in front," and it's possible CCP leadership don't want to lose more pilots in unsafe intercepts. Bottom line is US has the right to gather intelligence in international air space and waters, and PRC has the right to keep a close eye on US assets. Both sides should conduct their missions in safe and professional manners, and according to news reports, that is indeed the case.

China has to do whatever to stop the world's biggest voyeur as long as he continue his actions. Uncle Sam shouldn't complain if he continues to peek
 

broadsword

Brigadier
There are safe intercepts, and then there are unsafe ones. PRC already had a pilot killed, in your own words, "cutting in front," and it's possible CCP leadership don't want to lose more pilots in unsafe intercepts. Bottom line is US has the right to gather intelligence in international air space and waters, and PRC has the right to keep a close eye on US assets. Both sides should conduct their missions in safe and professional manners, and according to news reports, that is indeed the case.

I might be one of the few here to agree with you. It is just that accidents do happen, sigh, even if no one wants them.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
China is sending message to Singapore lighten up on the talk of "international law". Global Times with their hyperbole even talk about melting those APC in one of China steel mill. And inglorious end to Terrex.
GT Diatribe
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. Read the comment section interesting from this guy with handle name Yes

Kind of strange because China has known it for years and tolerated it.I guess they are unhappy with overt support for FON, international law, basing of PC3 etc. The relation will change. If I were China I will cozy up to Malaysia. Open an efficient and cheap port in Melacca.Sell them first class weapon.
shower i with investment which they already did. Malaysia is better bet than Indonesia
From CNN
Troop carriers seized: Is China sending Singapore a message?
By
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, CNN
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Updated 4:06 AM ET, Tue November 29, 2016

161129132733-armoured-vehicles-1-exlarge-169.jpg

Armored vehicles belonging to the Singapore military seen covered with tarpaulin in Hong Kong.
Story highlights
  • Singapore defense chief says overseas training not secret
  • A team from the Singapore Armed Forces has been allowed to inspect the vehicles
  • Analysts says seizure could be way for China to indicate its displeasure
(CNN)Singapore is scrambling to recover nine armored troop carriers that have been impounded in Hong Kong for almost a week after they were used in a military training exercise in Taiwan.

Singapore's Ministry of Defence
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of Terrex infantry carriers had been delayed on November 23 during a routine inspection by Hong Kong Customs.
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have suggested the seizure was at Beijing's request.
It certainly earned Singapore a unusual public reprimand from China.
"China opposes any country with which it has established diplomatic ties from conducting any official exchanges, including military, and cooperation with Taiwan. We urge the Singapore government to keep its promise to the One China principle," Geng Shuang, a spokesman for Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Wednesday.
Singapore's defense ministry said the vehicles were used "in routine overseas training and shipped back via commercial means as with previous exercises" and no ammunition was on board. A Singapore Armed Forces team has been allowed to inspect the vehicles,
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"Our training overseas has never been secret. People know where we train, openly," Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen said Tuesday.
He added that Singapore had played a positive role in improving cross-strait relations between China and Taiwan.
161129132940-amored-vehicles-3-exlarge-169.jpg

Analysts say the seizure of the military vehicles may be designed to send a message to Singapore.
Teaching Singapore a lesson?
Zhang Baohui, a professor of political science at Hong Kong's Lingnan University, said that Singapore had a long-standing defense ties with Taiwan and has often used the island for training drills given a lack of space in the crowded city state.
"I don't think that China has given Singapore a public rebuke for this before," Zhang said. "I think the real issue is that China thinks Singapore has turned into a quasi US ally."
"In the context of deteriorating relations, it could be a Chinese strategy to teach Singapore a lesson and a way to indicate their unhappiness," he added.
Singapore has strengthened military ties with the US and taken a tough stance on the South China Sea dispute, urging China to abide by an international tribunal that ruled its claims to the waters were unlawful, said Zhang.
It's also been a strong advocate of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal,
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, and China's Global Times newspaper has been
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with the Singapore government.
Taiwan's defense ministry declined to comment, saying the troop carriers didn't belong to its military.
Singapore's Ng said that hoped the reasons for the vehicles' seizure would be made clear after a meeting Tuesday between Hong Kong officials and the commercial shipping carrier APL.
Hong Kong's Customs and Excise Department said the case is under investigation.

Role model?
Singapore has long played a mediator position in confrontations between China and Taiwan, which are divided by decades of tension after separating in 1949, and
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between their leaders last year.
What's more, Singapore, with its brand of government-led capitalism, has also been held up as a role model in China, especially under Lee Kuan Yew, whose vision was said to have inspired
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But Yvonne Chiu, an assistant professor at Hong Kong University, says that China's relationship with Singapore has soured -- just as other Asian neighbors like the
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and
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appear to be pivoting away from the US to Beijing.
"Singapore prides itself on its rule of law and its place in the international community and this complicates China's interests and what happens in its sphere of influence," she said.
Chiu added that Beijing was also likely sending a warning signal to Taiwan's new President Tsai Ing-wen, who is from a traditionally pro-independence party.
Tsai is trying to lessen Taiwan's economic reliance on China and develop stronger ties with southeast Asian countries -- under a "go south" policy. Singapore is the only southeast Asian country to
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"It seems like Beijing is starting to feel it needs to be more heavy handed and nip these things in the bud," said Chiu.
CNN's Rebecca Wright in Hong Kong and Serena Dong in Beijing contributed to this report
 

advill

Junior Member
At yesterday's Straits Times Global Outlook Forum, and reported in today's (30 November 2016) Straits Times, the Singapore Foreign Minister reiterated that Singapore always adhere to One China's Policy, & the country won't let any one issue hijack its longstanding, multi-faceted
relationship with China. I quote a Chinese proverb "With true friends, even water drunk together is sweet",
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Well Taiwan is not an issue here but public display of support to socalled International law is . Anyway a new article from lyle Goldstein quoting Chinese anaIyst. I am not really agree with his conclusion . Those island base are not forward base. Properly defended with IAD and AEW it not as vulnerable as some people thought
The purpose of those island bases are to establish Chinese sovereignty in SCS and allow China to monitor and survey the area in SCS. Close second allow China to have persistent patrol and aerial, sea, undersea surveillance in SCS and provide safe haven from storm and R&R and service for the ship crew.The third reason is to act as sanctuary for China fledgling SSBN It is not forward base

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A colorful graphic insert from the June 2016 Chinese naval magazine Naval and Merchant Ships [舰船知识] offers a
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of one possible future for the South China Sea. A map on the graphic accurately displays Beijing’s three new long runways that have been built up since 2014 in the Spratlys, alongside overlapping range arcs for HQ-9 air defense systems (200km), YJ-62 truck launched anti-ship cruise missiles (300km), as well as for J-11 and JH-7 fighter/attack aircraft (1500km). More disquieting still is that there is next to the map an image depicting a burning aircraft carrier, struck by cruise missiles launched from surrounding Chinese frigates, as well as from shore-based launchers. Part of the caption for this colorful graphic suggests that “each of the reefs can offer mutual support to one another effectively enabling control of our country’s South China Sea area” (…各岛礁相互配合可有效达到对我国南海地区的控制).

A somewhat less bellicose (but hardly benign) interpretation was offered by a
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from the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington at about the same time. That report concluded that extensive hangars were being built on all three islets in the South China Sea (Fiery Cross, Mischief and Subi), so that the new bases could “soon have hangar space for 24 fighter-jets plus 3-4 larger planes.” Perhaps given the above evidence, it is too late to hope that Beijing would resist fully militarizing the new facilities that it has constructed. On the other hand, the AMTI illustrations did each carry the caveat that the authors had themselves drawn jet silhouettes directly onto the satellite photos so that “aircraft [were] shown for illustrative purposes.” Somewhat surprisingly, so it seems, there has still only been
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by a Chinese military aircraft to the reef air bases back in spring 2016 and that was for the purpose of rescuing some ill workers. The actual Chinese garrison, capabilities and missions for these bases remain a mystery to a large extent.

In that light, this edition of Dragon Eye examines a cover story under the title “The Value of Military Aircraft Based at Yongshu Island” from the
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of the Chinese naval magazine Modern Ships [现代舰船], published by the warship building conglomerate China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC). The author develops the evaluation of aircraft basing possibilities at the Fiery Cross [Yongshu Island/永署岛] airstrip based on five logical questions: Are the runways suitable? Is navigation equipment sufficiently advanced? Are climatic conditions appropriate? Is there adequate apron space? Finally, are resources available for maintenance? While noting some advantages provided by the new airstrips, this Chinese analysis is surprisingly candid regarding the related challenges, and concludes ultimately on purely military technical grounds (thus putting diplomatic issues aside) that “a large scale deployment of combat aircraft would actually be unwise.”

As for the dimensions of the runway on Fiery Cross, the analysis notes that the airstrip is larger in some respects than the airfield on Woody Island [永兴岛]. Since that field in the Paracels welcomed a detachment of J-11BH fighters in November 2015 as part of a PLA military exercise, according to this analysis, there is little doubt that the Fiery Cross airfield could host the same kind of fighter aircraft. The piece notes that considerable work remains to be completed on the airfield’s lights, radars and navigation beacons, but states that the airfield will likely still be unusable in heavy weather [恶劣天气]. Indeed, the paper observes that the Spratlys usually witness multiple typhoons each year, such that the “time when Fiery Cross airfield can be used may actually not be very often” [永署岛机场的可用时间并不多] and that even conducting exercises that use the facility could be “very difficult.” With respect to logistics, moreover, the analysis emphasizes the difficulties of maintaining aircraft and weaponry in a “high salt, high humidity, high temperature” environment. Nor does it anticipate that China would wish to station “a few thousand specialists of a maintenance group” [几千人的专业保障团队] with all their “electricity, water and other life issues.”

Due to the numerous constraints listed above, the “Fiery Cross Island is really not suitable for the regular basing of small aircraft squadrons.” Nevertheless, the analysis does highlight that the bases are capable of taking China’s largest aircraft, including the H-6, Il-76, and Y-20 transports, bombers, tankers and special mission aircraft. According to space and support calculations, this analysis holds that a maximum deployment of aircraft to the Fiery Cross Base might be two Il-76 transports, three H-6 bombers, three medium-sized transports and six fighter aircraft. However, the piece is quite dismissive regarding the possibility of basing bombers at Fiery Cross base, noting such a move would be unnecessary and “not in keeping with the principles of combat.” On the other hand, it is viewed as quite likely that these bases would field both helicopters and unmanned aircraft. A reasonable conclusion offered in this piece seems to be that Fiery Cross should be viewed as playing a supporting role (e.g. refueling) for the purpose of “stretching the combat radius of naval air forces based on Hainan Island.”

The issue of the vulnerability of the reef air bases is not a major theme of the cover article discussed here, but the question does arise a couple of times. Noting that critical seaborne supply to the islands could actually be cut in wartime, the article suggests that “Fiery Cross Island could be paralyzed” [会造成永署岛的瘫痪]. At the conclusion of the article, the author provides one last possibility for a basing configuration for Fiery Cross airstrip: six UAVs, two helicopters, twenty fighters and four transports. However, this force “could not fight for long” [不能长久作战] largely due to the fact that these fixed facilities are “extremely easy to attack” [非常容易打击]. So it seems that Chinese strategists also realize that these new reef bases might make for good “photo ops” (and the occasional astonishing graphic described in the introduction), but the new facilities actually do not seem to have major
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.
 
Last edited:
at first I noted at gazeta.ru
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China blames Taiwan for president's 'petty' phone call with Trump
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump spoke by phone with President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan, the first such contact between the two sides in nearly four decades, but China dismissed the call as a "petty action" by the self-ruled island it claims as its own.

The 10-minute telephone call with Taiwan's leadership was the first by a U.S. president-elect or president since President Jimmy Carter switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in 1979, acknowledging Taiwan as part of "one China".

Hours after Friday's call, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi blamed Taiwan for the exchange, avoiding what could have been a major rift with Washington just before Trump assumes the presidency.

"This is just the Taiwan side engaging in a petty action, and cannot change the 'one China' structure already formed by the international community," Wang said at an academic forum in Beijing, state media reported.

"I believe that it won't change the longstanding 'one China' policy of the United States government."

In comments at the same forum, Wang noted how quickly President Xi Jinping and Trump had spoken by telephone after Trump's victory, and that Trump had praised China as a great country.

Wang said the exchange "sends a very positive signal about the future development of Sino-U.S. relations", according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry's website. Taiwan was not mentioned in that call, according to an official Chinese transcript.

Trump said on Twitter that Tsai had initiated the call he had with the Taiwan president. "The President of Taiwan CALLED ME today to wish me congratulations on winning the Presidency. Thank you!" he said.

Alex Huang, a spokesman for Tsai, said: "Of course both sides agreed ahead of time before making contact."

Trump and Tsai noted that "close economic, political and security ties exist between Taiwan and the United States", the Trump transition team said in a statement. Taiwan's presidential office said the two discussed strengthening bilateral interactions and establishing closer cooperation.

Photographs released by Taiwan's presidential office showed Tsai, her national security council chief and her foreign minister participating in the call with Trump.

Later on Saturday, Taiwan's policy making body on China said Beijing must look at the call "calmly".

"We call on China to face the new situation in the Asia-Pacific region and work with us towards developing a benign cross-strait relationship," the Mainland Affairs Council said in a statement, referring to the stretch of water between the two sides.

China considers Taiwan a wayward province and has never renounced the use of force to bring it under its control. Relations between the two sides have worsened since Tsai, who heads the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, was elected president in January.

ARMS SUPPLIER

Washington remains Taiwan's most important political ally and sole arms supplier, despite the lack of formal diplomatic ties, the irony of which was not lost on Trump.

"Interesting how the U.S. sells Taiwan billions of dollars of military equipment but I should not accept a congratulatory call," Trump said in another tweet.

Trump has eschewed tradition in other calls with foreign leaders since he won the U.S. election, prompting the White House to encourage him to make use of the diplomatic expertise and counsel of the State Department.

The White House said after Trump's call that "longstanding policy" on China and Taiwan had not changed.

"We remain firmly committed to our 'one China' policy," said Ned Price, a national security spokesman for President Barack Obama. "Our fundamental interest is in peaceful and stable cross-Strait relations."

Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway said on CNN that Trump was "well aware of what U.S. policy has been" on Taiwan.

Administration officials said Trump's team did not alert the White House about the call ahead of time.

Randy Schriver, a former deputy assistant secretary of state responsible for East Asia, including Taiwan, under former President George W. Bush said he believed the call was "primarily a courtesy".

"China should have no objection ... They know better than anyone that contact between leaders does not violate a U.S. one China Policy," he said.

Advisers to the Republican president-elect have indicated that he is likely to take a more robust policy towards China than Obama, a Democrat, and that Trump plans to boost the U.S. military in part in response to China's increasing power in Asia. However, details of his plans remain scant.

Trump lambasted China throughout the U.S. election campaign, drumming up headlines with pledges to slap 45 percent tariffs on imported Chinese goods and label the country a currency manipulator on his first day in office.

Earlier this week, Trump spoke to Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and praised him, according to the Pakistani leader's office, as a "terrific guy".

Islamabad and Washington have seen relations sour in recent years over U.S. accusations that Pakistan shelters Islamist militants who kill U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan, a charge denied by the South Asian nation.

Trump also invited Philippine leader Rodrigo Duterte to the White House next year during what a Duterte aide said was a "very engaging, animated" phone conversation. Duterte has openly insulted Obama, who canceled a planned meeting with him in September.

A statement issued by Trump's transition team made no mention of the invitation.
source is Reuters (dated Sat Dec 3, 2016 | 2:25am EST)
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