China's SCS Strategy Thread

[longmarch]

Longmarch, I get the sense you think China accepted US primacy in Asia was a dick size contest, and I'd like to put that to rest, because it wasn't. Both countries acted in their own best interests, and both sides benefited.

The Shanghai Communique of 1972 spelled out where US and China agreed and disagreed. US continued its "one China" policy but with Beijing as government of China, and not Taipei, so Mao and Zhou negotiated a good deal for the PRC. No one disputes that. In return, China accepted US leadership and Bretton Woods rules in Asia and received all sorts of economic and military aid for the act. Those are the facts, and they're extremely well documented.

Do some independent research in the World Wide Web on American primacy in Asia and see what you could find. Keep in mind China accepting US primacy wasn't a bad thing and wasn't a put down of China, as both sides gained from the arrangement.

Sorry but you clearly overstated US strength in the 70's. The 70's can be characterized as American strategic retreat and Soviet strategic expansion, marked by US withdrew from Vietnam, Nixon visiting China and Soviet invading Afghanistan. This is written in Chinese textbook and to say Mao accepted US primacy is absurd, 'caused it didn't exist at that time.
The fact is, China sees the relationship among China, US and USSR as the "great triangle", every Chinese living through 70s and 80s knows this. Even though China worked with US to counter USSR, it's never the intention to see it dissolve. China knows how to play triangle, so by 1989 relationship between USSR and China has been fully nomalized, but few anticipated how fast the Soviets went South.
What happened after was that the collapse of soviet enboldens US and a series of incidents occurred:
Yinhe incident in 1993
Taiwan strait crisis in 1996
US bombing Chinese embassy in 1999
Airplane collision in 2001

And then came Sep. 11th, then the great recession, which turned US attention away and bought China more time. When US came back with Pivotal to Asia, it's already different game.

Now, you could argue that after Tiananmen Square, Deng's strategy of "keeping a low profile and never take the lead" can be seen as acceptence of US primacy, but what really made US enjoy this status was the collapse of soviet union, which is not even mentioned in you narrative. To trace it back to Mao is just too far a strech.
What's ironic is that, with Deng's appeasement stretegy, it only invites more pressure from US, and by early 2000, it's already clear that either China build up its defence, or be seen as America's enemy and encircled. When China starts to ratchet up its military machine, the collapse of USSR turned out to be a disguised blessing.

 

[Blackstone]

Longmarch, I see our gulf is just too wide, and there's no further use to discuss China accepting US primacy, so let's just agree to disagree.

 

[SamuraiBlue]

Looks as if militarization of the area is going faster then anyone presumed.

China building submarine base in Panganiban Reef

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(The Philippine Star)

MANILA, Philippines – China is reportedly building a submarine harbor at Panganiban (Mischief) Reef located in the West Philippine Sea near Palawan, the Kalayaan Atin Ito (KAI) movement said yesterday.

KAI has just concluded its nationwide maritime and territorial campaign that was highlighted by the “Freedom Voyage” to the disputed Spratly Islands to protest China’s invasion of the country’s maritime domain.

“Palawan is just 135 nautical miles away from the Panganiban Reef, which is being developed by China into a submarine harbor,” KAI’s student volunteers said in their report after the Freedom Voyage.

Former Marine captain Nicanor Faeldon, who initiated a peaceful protest against China’s occupation of Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal in Zambales in 2012, led the student-volunteers during the trip to Pag-asa Island on Dec. 24.

Located within the country’s 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone, Panganiban Reef was first occupied by Beijing in 1995, purportedly as a shelter for fishermen.

China gradually developed the area and transformed it into a naval facility.

“This evil project does not concern the Filipino alone but the entire humanity, including the peace-loving Chinese people,” KAI said, referring to China’s ongoing reclamation and construction activities on Panganiban Reef..... to read more

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[delft]

Looks as if militarization of the area is going faster then anyone presumed.

What use would be this submarine base?
These islands might be used to base maritime patrol aircraft and 056's for anti-piracy activity.

 

[antiterror13]

What use would be this submarine base?
These islands might be used to base maritime patrol aircraft and 056's for anti-piracy activity.

The article is from The Philippine Star, so it should tell you a lot

 

[SamuraiBlue]

The article is from The Philippine Star, so it should tell you a lot

Trying to discredit the source without any reason why the source is not reliable is going to blow in your face.
Tell me you knowledge about the Philippine stars, how it is regarded in the Philippines.

Here is how it is regarded within the domestic market;

The Philippine Star is a three-time winner of the Newspaper of the Year award given by the Rotary Club of Manila. In 2006, it received the prestigious Marketing Company of the Year Award from the Philippine Marketing Association. In the same year, it also received the "Outstanding Newspaper of the Year" award from the Filipino civic group Volunteers Against Crime and Corruption (VACC) in recognition of its "invaluable service to the community by courageously sticking to the truth and to the basic tenets of professional journalism."

Basically your comment blew right in your own face.

 

[delft]

Trying to discredit the source without any reason why the source is not reliable is going to blow in your face.
Tell me you knowledge about the Philippine stars, how it is regarded in the Philippines.

Here is how it is regarded within the domestic market;/*



Basically your comment blew right in your own face.

That says a lot about the quality of the Philippine press. The quality of the Philippine Star is shown by the article about the submarine base.

 

[joshuatree]

Trying to discredit the source without any reason why the source is not reliable is going to blow in your face.
Tell me you knowledge about the Philippine stars, how it is regarded in the Philippines.

Here is how it is regarded within the domestic market;



Basically your comment blew right in your own face.

Well.......the article itself discredits itself unless more substantial evidence is provided.

“Palawan is just 135 nautical miles away from the Panganiban Reef, which is being developed by China into a submarine harbor,” KAI’s student volunteers said in their report after the Freedom Voyage.

Unless KAI is arguing about semantics, they only meant a harbor that any vessel including submarines can dock, they are clearly refuted in the same article further below.

Kalayaan Mayor Eugenio Bito-onon said the KAI report needs further validation, noting the route taken by the student-volunteers during the Freedom Voyage as well as their return trip to Palawan was nowhere near Panganiban Reef.

Bito-onon said the only thing confirmed for now is that China is continuously fortifying its presence on Panganiban Reef.

So wouldn't a basic tenant of professional journalism avoid sensational headlines? It should have been more like

KAI alleges China building submarine base in Panganiban Reef


If one looks at a topological sea map, it doesn't make sense to build a sub base at Mischief. Too close to other claimants and in mostly shallow waters. It reduces the sub's advantage as well as introducing additional navigational dangers. If China does build a sub base, Woody or Fiery Cross makes the most logical sense as they are the closest to deep waters to slip away from anyone tracking them. Both of these locations are also beyond the 200 nm EEZ claims from rival claimants.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Most of South China Sea is too shallow for effective submarine warfare anyway.

 

[Zool]

Most of South China Sea is too shallow for effective submarine warfare anyway.

I think there are certainly advantages in using SSK's throughout much of the South China Sea, while saving the SSN's for deep water, long distance operations and group escort.

China will likely use the new island developments to some degree in supporting SSK deployments. At a minimum China can and probably will replenish supplies with these forward ports, meaning subs won't have to make the trip back to the mainland as often and will have a higher availability for area patrol as a result.

“Palawan is just 135 nautical miles away from the Panganiban Reef, which is being developed by China into a submarine harbor,” KAI’s student volunteers said in their report after the Freedom Voyage.

This is just the nature of the rivalry between Philippines & China. To call it a submarine harbor is part of the PR for this Freedom Voyage by the Philippines. Obviously other vessels besides subs will make use of the newly built facilities and do so on a much more regular basis. As with runways and hangers, a permanent deployment of assets would be a true sign of militarization. Until then it's just infrastructure; strategically placed though it might be.