China's Pacific strategy

tphuang

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I figure this story deserves it's own thread.
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Wang Yi is visiting seven of the countries he hopes will endorse the “Common Development Vision” — the Solomon Islands, Kiribati, Samoa, Fiji, Tonga, Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea.

Other 3 being Cook Islands, Niue and the Federated States of Micronesia. If you need to look at the map, you will see that this is a far bigger deal than Solomon Islands.

Funny story. Back in 2006 when I just got out of college, one of my best friends worked at a senior role in the Vanuatu embassy in Beijing. We drove around Beijing in the embassy car with complete lack of respect for traffic laws. It was awesome. Anyhow, even back then, you can see the amount of effort that China was starting to put in order to cultivate relationship with these countries. China was putting effort into a lot of these really small places that America just doesn't have the time or place for. Australia just assumed them to be its own backyard.

Anyhow, the most strategically relevant one here is Kiribati. This puts them under 3000 km off Pearl Harbor.
Samoa is a little over 4000 km away from Pearl Harbor
Fiji is about 5000 km away from Pearl Harbor.

I always found the entire Australia freak out over Solomon Island situation amusing, because China really doesn't care to threaten Australia. The end goal is always to have a way of hitting the Pacific fleet stationed at Pearl Harbor. Both Kiribati and Samoa would put them in range to do so. In the end, I don't think they will build base in most of these countries. I think Kiribati followed by Samoa are the prizes here. Sorry Australia, you are not that important.

On top of this, Samoa and Kiribati would also be half way to South America. The importance of trade to Brazil, Argentina and Chile will continue to grow over the next few decades as batteries/lithium become ever more important. It's very strategically important place for China to be able to have a base out here.
 

ficker22

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I figure this story deserves it's own thread.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Wang Yi is visiting seven of the countries he hopes will endorse the “Common Development Vision” — the Solomon Islands, Kiribati, Samoa, Fiji, Tonga, Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea.

Other 3 being Cook Islands, Niue and the Federated States of Micronesia. If you need to look at the map, you will see that this is a far bigger deal than Solomon Islands.

Funny story. Back in 2006 when I just got out of college, one of my best friends worked at a senior role in the Vanuatu embassy in Beijing. We drove around Beijing in the embassy car with complete lack of respect for traffic laws. It was awesome. Anyhow, even back then, you can see the amount of effort that China was starting to put in order to cultivate relationship with these countries. China was putting effort into a lot of these really small places that America just doesn't have the time or place for. Australia just assumed them to be its own backyard.

Anyhow, the most strategically relevant one here is Kiribati. This puts them under 3000 km off Pearl Harbor.
Samoa is a little over 4000 km away from Pearl Harbor
Fiji is about 5000 km away from Pearl Harbor.

I always found the entire Australia freak out over Solomon Island situation amusing, because China really doesn't care to threaten Australia. The end goal is always to have a way of hitting the Pacific fleet stationed at Pearl Harbor. Both Kiribati and Samoa would put them in range to do so. In the end, I don't think they will build base in most of these countries. I think Kiribati followed by Samoa are the prizes here. Sorry Australia, you are not that important.

On top of this, Samoa and Kiribati would also be half way to South America. The importance of trade to Brazil, Argentina and Chile will continue to grow over the next few decades as batteries/lithium become ever more important. It's very strategically important place for China to be able to have a base out here.


They better prepare a global Initiative expanding OBOR to



CPC - Common Prosperity Covenant
 

horse

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That is how ASEAN and China started developing their relationship.

People forget now, as this crap happened a long time ago, but people were are afraid of communist China.

Then things changed.

IIRC, some time during the 1990's there was this regular meeting between China and ASEAN, and China requested that they deepen their trading relationship and be more co-operative in all areas.

This request from China, shocked ASEAN, because it meant that China wanted to be friends. No more Chairman Mao coming to get your ass, now it is all about developing good relations.

Fast forward a few decades, and this long term approach of confidence building and relationship building is really paying dividends for all involved with China and ASEAN.


This proposal from China to these Pacific Island nations, is straight out of the same playbook.

The only difference here is that there is no historical baggage between China and these places we cannot find on a map.

Hence, this will be an accelerated process, because those places we cannot find on the map need help with the climate change, which the United States and Australia tend to think that is someone else's problem and has nothing to do with them. Some help that is.

These island nations will agree to China proposals. Why not? It can only help, and they are not breaking off their relations with the west.

The west has a problem with it because they thought this was a relationship of exclusivity, that what they said goes in these Pacific nations.

Gu Ai Ling. Remember what she used to say!

:cool:
 

tphuang

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Keep in mind that what china is proposing here does have a security component to it. It's been rumored for a while now that china is looking to building a military base in Kiribati. As I said, this is the prize of pacific ocean for china. It's interesting how they pulled a fast one on western countries here. I still see western analysts obsessed over Solomon islands because that was the first nation they got to sign on. The prize is and always will be kiribatim. After that, Samoa is probably the most logical for pla.

I looked over the map and it's conceivable they could even strike San Diego from Kiribati. It's amazing to me that they got western analysts so focused on Australia and Solomon islands that they are completely ignoring Kiribati.

For those like myself who are worried about a future us china conflict, you could see how things could turn sour when china puts a permanent military base here that can support carrier groups.
 

tphuang

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This was written on Kiribati air strip a while ago.
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I think China is doing its due diligence on how much expansion they can do here and how big of a base they can expand this island to. As we've seen in SCS, they can significant island expansion. They will certainly be able to change the contours of the lagoon to create the space needed for command center, fuel depot, air defense batteries, long range radar, hangars, repair shops and a general year round facility.

Looks like Kiribati and Vanuatu are signing deals with China.
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I'm not suggesting that China will start building a military base there today, but this will allow them to keep investing money into the country, help them with the effects or climate change and create good will in the local population. Investing $100 million a year of practically free money into Kiribati a year would be well worth the investment.

And it would not have to be just this one island. I'm sure they can build more facilities there in other islands too.
 

Bellum_Romanum

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This was written on Kiribati air strip a while ago.
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I think China is doing its due diligence on how much expansion they can do here and how big of a base they can expand this island to. As we've seen in SCS, they can significant island expansion. They will certainly be able to change the contours of the lagoon to create the space needed for command center, fuel depot, air defense batteries, long range radar, hangars, repair shops and a general year round facility.

Looks like Kiribati and Vanuatu are signing deals with China.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

I'm not suggesting that China will start building a military base there today, but this will allow them to keep investing money into the country, help them with the effects or climate change and create good will in the local population. Investing $100 million a year of practically free money into Kiribati a year would be well worth the investment.

And it would not have to be just this one island. I'm sure they can build more facilities there in other islands too.
But isn't Kiribati in danger of actually disappearing/sinking being swallowed by the rising ocean? Making that large sum of investment should also be placed into the Kiribati existential issues (climate change) because these people are suffering from the effects of climate change if China can address this acute issue then China can be welcomed accordingly.

 

vincent

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But isn't Kiribati in danger of actually disappearing/sinking being swallowed by the rising ocean? Making that large sum of investment should also be placed into the Kiribati existential issues (climate change) because these people are suffering from the effects of climate change if China can address this acute issue then China can be welcomed accordingly.

China has demonstrated her ability to build islands from the sea. She can help Kiribati build up its islands to handle the sea rise, maybe that’s why Kiribati goes with China now.
 

Bellum_Romanum

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China has demonstrated her ability to build islands from the sea. She can help Kiribati build up its islands to handle the sea rise, maybe that’s why Kiribati goes with China now.
Congratulations @vincent with your recent promotion and challenging responsibilities as a a moderator. I wish you sanity and serenity in the sea of emotional tsunamis lol
 
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