China's long term geography (100+ years)

ZeEa5KPul said:

Peak oil is no concern of China's. Have you seen what it's doing with EVs? Oil will go the way of whale blubber by mid-century.

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We'll see. Peak fossil is right around the corner after peak oil. The main energy goals will be 1st freedom from foreign oil, 2nd freedom from any fossil fuel oil, 3rd freedom from fossil fuels in general.

EVs aren't the complete solution though. The energy density of batteries is too low for commercial vehicles and heavy duty lift. You need chemical fuel for those. Luckily China is working on that too with hybrid cars and hydrogen vehicles.

The holy grail of total security by 2030 will be:

1. parity deterrence
2. electricity is <30% fossil
3. first self sustaining extraterrestrial colony (even something as rudimentary as a space station that can grow its own food)
4. prototype orbital solar power achieves net energy gain or first artificial materials are refined on Luna
5. semiconductor equipment supply chain gains total independence

If these 5 goals are achieved China has already won the 21st century. If 3/5 of these are achieved then China didn't win yet but is in a good position to win.

demographic challenges to western dominance:
1, aging populations,
2, decreasing birth rates,
3, unchecked immigration-->threat to homogeneous population and culture, therefore splintered national cohesiveness, coupled with
4, democrazy-->dystopian and dysfunctional governments who cannot formulate and execute long-term plans.
all these factors together=the inevitable downfall of western hegemony.
western populace knows these and naturally is anxious/worried, therefore the recent rising right swing in their elections, exemplified by the election of the immoral, and unscrupulous Donald T who is a pathological liar without any integrity.
China has her own share of 1, and 2. without solving these 2 factors, the topic in discussion is moot.

ZeEa5KPul said:

Peak oil is no concern of China's. Have you seen what it's doing with EVs? Oil will go the way of whale blubber by mid-century.

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Exactly. oil industry is dead. Mining/recycling of battery elements is more critical.