China need a new geopolitical Doctrine ?

B.I.B. said:

Many who? The Western Alliance, Americans, or folks in China. I dont think Trump will risk a military confrontation in the SCS so close to the elections. What happens if it does not go as well for him as expected.

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Ordinarily I would agree with you. But this is Trump! And to me, he is not of sound mind. He'll do anything as he believes he is the best person ever!

muddie said:

This topic seems to get brought up often in the last week. I have yet to see a reputable commentator or source indicating any potential military engagement against China in the SCS (please post here if you see any). It does not mean that China is not ready for a confrontation, just that it is highly unlikely.

As many people have mentioned before, a military engagement in SCS would require the U.S. to be the aggressor and there is no way for Trump to get enough internal support for that. If the Trump Admin is unwilling to engage Iran or Syria militarily, then China is not even in the realm of possibilities.

I do agree that the Trump Admin will try to escalate tensions with China up and until the election, but these escalations will largely be symbolic in nature and economic attacks. We might see more of Pompeo's desperate speeches like the one calling for regime change in China or maybe another speech on SCS / HK / Xinjiang. Trump would need significantly more internal support (especially from Democrats) to go beyond these gestures as the risks will be a lot higher.

Given problems at home such as COVID, racial tensions, economic / unemployment and fight between liberals vs. conservatives, Trump's best hope of reelection is diverting attention to China, which is what he has been trying to do. IMO China is waiting till election results to act. Further escalation against the U.S. by China now plays into Trump's hand of diverting media attention.

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Never underestimate a desperate man.

I know this is a six month old article, but it does show the sort of propaganda China is up against.

A Reddit AMA Claiming To Be A Uiyghur Quickly Exposes A CIA Asset Slandering China

Rushan Abbas an Uyghur “activist” who has worked for a long list of US regime change organisations from US State Dept, Dept of Justice, Radio Free Asia, Homeland Security and even worked at Guantanamo Bay during the Bush

Rest of the article:

BMEWS said:

Trump henchmen said he was going to keep escalating every 1 or 2 weeks until the election

Many think SCS goes hot by mid Oct

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Trump is maybe stupid and idiot but he is not war freak. He could have pulled the trigger for war for North Korea at the height of the tensions in 2017, or bombed Iran during those oil tankers incidents. Iran and North Korea are both tiny in comparison to China. Yet there is still some restraint in those decisions. And one of his selling points is to pull out US in endless middle east wars. So at least this a credit we could take that this gathering storm may pass.

muddie said:

Except the Democrats and other law makers aren't that foolish.

If Trump really wanted to start a war to divert elections, he would have done it with Iran.

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Trump doesn't have to declare a war to start one. As long as the congress does not formally declare hostility, the US is not at war, even if the US is actively involved. It is not about whether he could cancel the election, it is about whether he could be reelected. A cancelled election would not provide him with the legitimacy he desperately needed.

The propaganda war of the war mobilization has been completed for some time now, he would not only receive the support from the populist but also the support from the military-industrial complex. He just has to convince India to escalate the border conflict before September. If a war starts in August, the intense fighting would only last a month or two before the winter snow disrupt the supply line of both sides and allow peace negotiation. He could threaten India with oil supply, allure India with investment, encourage India's pro-war populist, or just bribe officers in the military to do stupid things. He might even get a Nobel peace prize in December.

Well Trump and his followers think they control everything hence why they thought they would win the trade war. They think that was enough to make China surrender. They didn't think they would have to go to war but since everything else has failed, there could be a war by accident because the US is arrogant. They didn't think China would defy them on a trade war because they had that much leverage, why not thinking the same with some military maneuver? If they thought they could win a war militarily, they would've done it already. Trump was too chicken to take on North Korea. Pompeo is calling for the world to gang-up against China because he knows the US can't do it alone. You think that's a country ready to take on China? Since WWII, the US has only gone against lesser militaries with lesser capabilities. Their arrogance about their military capabilities might be just like how they thought the US was number one in handling outbreaks. If they were so sure they could beat China militarily, wouldn't they have already tried? And it would be huge blow to the US if they found out their military is the same as their COVID-19 response which brings up how they start a nuclear war because they have to save face in a world where China beat them. And remember this is because China hasn't change in 50 years of diplomacy... Not that China is in a war and invading countries. Just because they thought China was going to change to their liking and it didn't happen. Where's the international law that says that was suppose to happen?

US has how many CBG in SCS now? 4?

What new technique to suppress China was Pompeo recently referring to?

BMEWS said:

its not gonna end, its just beginning
just wait until october youll see

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half of a share companies will be inside.

AssassinsMace said:

I thought you said the world obeys the US blindly. If so they will follow the US into completely isolating China which is Trump's goal. That's called nothing to lose.

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Then China should seek to improve relations with the US.

But actually my position isn't that the world obeys the US blindly; quite the opposite. The world in fact resents the US and is desperately seeking to rally around a challenger. If China would simply stop getting into fights with other countries all the time and put a modicum of investment into improving relations with other countries and soft power/PR, it would be running away with the win.

gadgetcool5 said:

Then China should seek to improve relations with the US.

But actually my position isn't that the world obeys the US blindly; quite the opposite. The world in fact resents the US and is desperately seeking to rally around a challenger. If China would simply stop getting into fights with other countries all the time and put a modicum of investment into improving relations with other countries and soft power/PR, it would be running away with the win.

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I don't see China bombing countries regularly like the US does.