中国军事现代化带来的挑战日益增加,这促使美国重估现有的军事战略并构思新战略。但在各种战略中,海上封锁应获得更大关注。一旦中美发生战争,美国可以对准中国最大优势——其出口拉动型经济增长模式——将之转变成中国军事上的一大弱点。为此,美国的对华海上封锁,要阻断中国大部分海上贸易。美国或许能重创中国经济,迫使中国坐回谈判桌,从而获得胜利。
Translation:
The challenges brough by China's military modernization is increasing daily. This has urged America to re-evaluate its current military strategy and find new concepts of military strategy. But among the various military strategies, maritime blockade should receive more attention. Once Sino-American war broke out, America can focus on China's biggest advantage -- its exports dependent mode of economic development -- and turn it into China's biggest military weakness. Therefore, America can cut off most of China's miritime trade by blockading China. Maybe America can seriously damage China's economy and force it to come back to the negotiating table and thereby win the victory.
但是近年来,封锁战略基本上被忽视了,或许是因为中美商贸关系紧密,经济战这个策略似乎本身就不对头。但如果两国爆发严重冲突,那安全利益将很快凌驾于贸易上的互相依存。
Translation:
But in recent years, blockade strategy has been basically overlooked. Maybe it is because Sino-American trade has been very tight. Economic warfare itself seems to be inappropriate. But if these two countries has explosive conflict then the security interests will quickly override economic mutual dependence.
鉴于封锁的潜在代价巨大,美国不会轻易使用这一战略。更重要的是,封锁战略将取决于地区几个第三方的配合。中国的许多邻国在战略上无足轻重,但印度、日本和俄罗斯颇具分量。印度和日本可以协助美国切断中国在南面和东面的贸易路线。中国的另一个邻国俄罗斯将是成功封锁的关键。
Translation:
Due to the heavy potential cost of blockade, America will not lightly use this strategy. More importantly, blockade strategy will hinge on the cooperation of third parties in the region. Many of China's neighbors are too weak and cannot make any difference. But India, Japan and Russia have the weight. India and Japan can help America to cut off China's trade routes to the south and east. China's other neighbor, Russia, is the key to the success of the blockade.
First, I have always said that it is long overdue for China to shift away from exports dependent mode of economic development. China's growth rate has declined precipitously from more than 12% to less than 8%. China's growth now comes almost entirely from its domestic development. China's exports are almost exclusively low tech labor intensive products that do not benefit China very much. Most of China's exports are products of the so-called "processing trade" where imported parts and components are assembled into finished products and exported as "made IN China" products. China derives little more than the cheapest wages in the world paid to its hard-working people. Therefore, if Xi expects to double the incomes of the Chinese people over the next 10 years then he must phase out exports and concentrate on developing China's internal economy through the advancement of indigenous technologies, the urbanization of the rural residents and the energy self-sufficiency. Once China has become independent in terms of technologies and energy and its people can produce 300 trillion yuan of goods and services that are bought and consumed by the Chinese people themselves, there is very little need for China to trade with foreign countries. If China ceased to rely on foreign trade for its economic development, then the strategy of blockading China simply falls apart by itself.
Secondly, it is nonsense to say that America can blockade China. If America can blockade China, then China can also blockade America. Or at least keep America out of West Pacific. If Japan can block Chinese trade in the Pacific, then it is essentially blocking Chinese ships going to America and Canada. Do you think China is the only one that will be hurt if Japan stopped Chinese ships going to America? If America did not want Chinese ships going to America, it is not necessary for it to blockade Chinese ships. It can simply pass a law prohibiting the import of Chinese products into America. Therefore, those who think it is necessary to blockade Chinese ships going to the East Pacific did not think things through carefully.
To say Japan can block Chinese ships going to the S. China Sea and through the Malacca St. and into the Indian Ocean, it is just nonsense. Japan simply does not have that capability. It is much more likely that China will block Japnese shipping through S. China Sea. In the end, American ships have to do the blockading. But if American ships blockaded Chinese ships in the S. China Sea, so can Chinese naval ships deny access to the American shipping in the S. China Sea. In other words, American cargo ships will not be able to pass through S. China Sea and American trade with S. E. Asia will stop. The fact that Chinese naval ships can sink American cargo ships will immediately stop all the America cargo ships passing through the S. China Sea. The cost of shipping insurance will increase many times and become prohibitively expensive. American businesses will stop doing business in S. E. Asia due to the uncertainty and the increased cost of doing business there. So not only will American shipping stop totally but American businesses will cease totally in S. E. Asia. And do you know what that will do to the American stock market? It will plunge and crash more than 50% in a week wiping out trillions of dollars of value and pauperize most Americans and bankrupt most American corporations and wiping out most pensions funds and such.
And India stopping China? The very idea is ludicrous to anybody with any knowledge of the relative strength of the two countries' naval power. It is not even worth commenting. Suffice it to say without America doing most of the heavy lifting, India by itself cannot run fast enough away from Chinese naval ships. And if India actually blockaded Chinese shippings, then there will be a land war the result of which is the immediate re-occupation of Zhangnan which is very good for China.
And Russia participating in an American orchestrated blockade of China is simply idiotic. At this point in time, it is simply impossible for Russia to blockade China without some earth shattering conflict between China and Russia first. And I just don't see that happening.
In the end, it is time for China to shift its economic mode of development from exports dependent to domestic dependent. And Japan and India are simply too weak to blockade China. And the result of blockading China will harm Japan, India and the US much more than China. China will be even more effective in blocking Japnese, Indians and Americans out of West Pacific and S. E. Asia. In fact, it will be good for China because if nothing else it will force China to become domestically self-sufficient which in the long term is the only way it can become fully developed. So the effect of blockading China is that China will grow even faster while the economies of Japan, India and the US collapse totally. Blockading China is BRILLIANT!!!!!
Translation:
The challenges brough by China's military modernization is increasing daily. This has urged America to re-evaluate its current military strategy and find new concepts of military strategy. But among the various military strategies, maritime blockade should receive more attention. Once Sino-American war broke out, America can focus on China's biggest advantage -- its exports dependent mode of economic development -- and turn it into China's biggest military weakness. Therefore, America can cut off most of China's miritime trade by blockading China. Maybe America can seriously damage China's economy and force it to come back to the negotiating table and thereby win the victory.
但是近年来,封锁战略基本上被忽视了,或许是因为中美商贸关系紧密,经济战这个策略似乎本身就不对头。但如果两国爆发严重冲突,那安全利益将很快凌驾于贸易上的互相依存。
Translation:
But in recent years, blockade strategy has been basically overlooked. Maybe it is because Sino-American trade has been very tight. Economic warfare itself seems to be inappropriate. But if these two countries has explosive conflict then the security interests will quickly override economic mutual dependence.
鉴于封锁的潜在代价巨大,美国不会轻易使用这一战略。更重要的是,封锁战略将取决于地区几个第三方的配合。中国的许多邻国在战略上无足轻重,但印度、日本和俄罗斯颇具分量。印度和日本可以协助美国切断中国在南面和东面的贸易路线。中国的另一个邻国俄罗斯将是成功封锁的关键。
Translation:
Due to the heavy potential cost of blockade, America will not lightly use this strategy. More importantly, blockade strategy will hinge on the cooperation of third parties in the region. Many of China's neighbors are too weak and cannot make any difference. But India, Japan and Russia have the weight. India and Japan can help America to cut off China's trade routes to the south and east. China's other neighbor, Russia, is the key to the success of the blockade.
First, I have always said that it is long overdue for China to shift away from exports dependent mode of economic development. China's growth rate has declined precipitously from more than 12% to less than 8%. China's growth now comes almost entirely from its domestic development. China's exports are almost exclusively low tech labor intensive products that do not benefit China very much. Most of China's exports are products of the so-called "processing trade" where imported parts and components are assembled into finished products and exported as "made IN China" products. China derives little more than the cheapest wages in the world paid to its hard-working people. Therefore, if Xi expects to double the incomes of the Chinese people over the next 10 years then he must phase out exports and concentrate on developing China's internal economy through the advancement of indigenous technologies, the urbanization of the rural residents and the energy self-sufficiency. Once China has become independent in terms of technologies and energy and its people can produce 300 trillion yuan of goods and services that are bought and consumed by the Chinese people themselves, there is very little need for China to trade with foreign countries. If China ceased to rely on foreign trade for its economic development, then the strategy of blockading China simply falls apart by itself.
Secondly, it is nonsense to say that America can blockade China. If America can blockade China, then China can also blockade America. Or at least keep America out of West Pacific. If Japan can block Chinese trade in the Pacific, then it is essentially blocking Chinese ships going to America and Canada. Do you think China is the only one that will be hurt if Japan stopped Chinese ships going to America? If America did not want Chinese ships going to America, it is not necessary for it to blockade Chinese ships. It can simply pass a law prohibiting the import of Chinese products into America. Therefore, those who think it is necessary to blockade Chinese ships going to the East Pacific did not think things through carefully.
To say Japan can block Chinese ships going to the S. China Sea and through the Malacca St. and into the Indian Ocean, it is just nonsense. Japan simply does not have that capability. It is much more likely that China will block Japnese shipping through S. China Sea. In the end, American ships have to do the blockading. But if American ships blockaded Chinese ships in the S. China Sea, so can Chinese naval ships deny access to the American shipping in the S. China Sea. In other words, American cargo ships will not be able to pass through S. China Sea and American trade with S. E. Asia will stop. The fact that Chinese naval ships can sink American cargo ships will immediately stop all the America cargo ships passing through the S. China Sea. The cost of shipping insurance will increase many times and become prohibitively expensive. American businesses will stop doing business in S. E. Asia due to the uncertainty and the increased cost of doing business there. So not only will American shipping stop totally but American businesses will cease totally in S. E. Asia. And do you know what that will do to the American stock market? It will plunge and crash more than 50% in a week wiping out trillions of dollars of value and pauperize most Americans and bankrupt most American corporations and wiping out most pensions funds and such.
And India stopping China? The very idea is ludicrous to anybody with any knowledge of the relative strength of the two countries' naval power. It is not even worth commenting. Suffice it to say without America doing most of the heavy lifting, India by itself cannot run fast enough away from Chinese naval ships. And if India actually blockaded Chinese shippings, then there will be a land war the result of which is the immediate re-occupation of Zhangnan which is very good for China.
And Russia participating in an American orchestrated blockade of China is simply idiotic. At this point in time, it is simply impossible for Russia to blockade China without some earth shattering conflict between China and Russia first. And I just don't see that happening.
In the end, it is time for China to shift its economic mode of development from exports dependent to domestic dependent. And Japan and India are simply too weak to blockade China. And the result of blockading China will harm Japan, India and the US much more than China. China will be even more effective in blocking Japnese, Indians and Americans out of West Pacific and S. E. Asia. In fact, it will be good for China because if nothing else it will force China to become domestically self-sufficient which in the long term is the only way it can become fully developed. So the effect of blockading China is that China will grow even faster while the economies of Japan, India and the US collapse totally. Blockading China is BRILLIANT!!!!!